水文相关中的最小二乘回归问题探讨

在研究了水文相关中利用最小二乘原理进行回归分析方法的基础上，指出了传统水文回归分析方法的使用条件、局限性和存在的问题。提出了不同性质的变量在回归分析时应区别对待的概念。结合水文观测的实际情况，研究了相关变量观测值均存在误差情况下，以变量的观测误差作权进行回归分析的概念，提出了建立基于最小二乘原理基础上的双加权回归模型，并研究了该模型的解算方法。同时推导了估计参数和预测值的误差估计公式，通过估计参数和模型误差的研究，有助于提高水文变量回归的精度和误差估计水平。     

Recent tectonic stress field zoning in Sichuan-Yunnan region and its dynamic interest

In this paper, we have carefully determined the stress zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region with reference to the in-situ stress data of hydraulic fracturing and the inverted fault slip data by using the step-by-step convergence method for stress zoning based on focal mechanism solutions. The results indicate that the tectonic stress field in the Sichuan-Yunnan region is divided into 3 stress zones by 2 approximately parallel NNW-trending stress transition belts. The area between the 2 belts is the Sichuan-Yunnan stress zone where the maximum principal stress σ1 is just in the NNW direction. The eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan stress zone （the eastern stress transition belt） is basically consistent with the eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block. The western boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan stress zone （the western stress transition belt） is not totally consistent with the western boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block. The northern segment of the western stress transition belt extends basically along the Jinshajiang fault and accords with the western boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block, while its southern segment does not extend along the southwestern boundary of the rhombic block, i.e., Honghe fault and converge with the eastern stress transition belt, but stretches continuously in the NNW direction and accords with the Yingpanshan fault. We therefore consider that under the combined influence from the northward motion of India Plate, the southeastward shift of east Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the strong obstruction of South China block, the tectonic stress field in the Sichuan-Yunnan region might not be totally controlled by the previous tectonic frame and new stress transition belt may have possibly formed.     

NWP产品在强对流天气诊断分析中的应用

利用ECMWF、T213、T106数值预报产品及各物理量场,对已知中尺度系统发生发展的大尺度条件,预报中尺度环流出现的统计概率进行探讨:首先将武汉中心气象台过去总结的强对流天气模型与数值预报产品中的环流形势进行对比分析,当所预报的环流形势满足强对流天气模型时,认为大尺度条件将会促进中尺度天气的发生发展。再对数值预报产品中的有关物理要素场和值进行诊断分析,当所诊断的结果反映出有中尺度次级环流出现或有利中尺度对流天气发生时,最后对强对流天气落区、落点及降水性质进行诊断分析。同时,还利用AREM中尺度数值模式对2002年7月21~24日过程进行诊断分析,预报效果较好。,通过诊断分析,得出了强对流天气落区、落点及降水性质与各要素之间预报场和值的关系,同时也为今后精细化预报提供了启示和参考。     

2002年北京风沙季节颗粒物测值分析

为了了解风沙季节的颗粒物浓度特征,特别是在风沙天气来临前后颗粒物浓度的变化,2002年春季分别在北京的延庆和观象台进行了连续的颗粒物观测,并对观测资料进行了较为详细的统计分析。结果表明:在风沙季节,沙尘天气出现前后的颗粒物浓度变化幅度非常显著,对环境质量的影响明显增大;TSP与PM10,PM10与PM2.5的相关性非常显著,线性关系好。沙尘天气对不同粒径颗粒物浓度贡献的增加在33%~86%之间。     

Short timescale air-sea coupling in the tropical deep convective regime

Summary The relationship between surface rainfall rate and sea-surface temperature (SST) over tropical cloudy areas is revisited, and associated air-sea interaction processes are investigated based on hourly grid simulation data over cloudy areas from a two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model. A cloud-weighted data analysis shows that surface evaporation flux decreases with increasing SST and is one order of magnitude smaller than the residual between moisture convergence and condensation, playing a negligible role in moisture budget. Moisture convergence determines the surface rainfall rate by determining vapor condensation and deposition rates. Ocean mixed-layer thermal budget shows that the atmospheric surface flux is a major process responsible for SST variation while thermal advection and thermal entrainment play a secondary role. The results indicate that atmospheric impacts on the ocean are important whereas oceanic impacts on the atmosphere are not, in the tropical air-sea system, on short timescales. Thus, the relationship between surface rainfall rate and SST over tropical cloudy areas is not physically important. Further estimates indicate that the surface evaporation flux and residual between moisture convergence and condensation could have the same order of magnitude in daily-mean moisture budget.     

地震震源机制解在华南及邻区潜源区长轴方向判定中的应用

本文利用34°N以南,105°E以东大陆东南地区中强地震和小震的震源机制解结果,分析了震源机制解与可能的中强震发震构造及潜源区方向的关系.华南及邻区地震震源机制解节面走向和主应力轴方位分布具有明显的优势方向,大部分M≥4.0地震震源机制解中一个节面走向与主要构造走向及大多数潜源区方向对应较好,多数小震的节面走向和主应力轴方位综合统计结果也能为潜源区方向的判定提供比较可靠的依据.同时通过对1996年南黄海Ms6.1地震和1997年福建龙岩-永安Ms5.2地震的震源机制解结果进行分析,并结合区域地质构造、地震活动以及地震的等震线长轴展布、余震分布等资料,探讨了这两个地区潜源区的划分.     

自适应抗差Kalman滤波在公路GPS测量中的应用

本文介绍了用载波相位平滑伪距观测数据和自适应抗差Kalman滤波算法进行差分动态定位的方法，用试验数据说明了车载GPS道路测量系统所能达到的精度水平。     

星地时间比对的原理及实现

文章介绍了几种星地时间比对的方法并对几种方法的精度进行了简要分析。为验证分析的正确性，文章首先采用2002年10月GPS35卫星的伪距和SLR实测数据计算了星地钟差，然后将本文计算的星地钟差与IGS精密星地钟差进行了比较。通过比较分析发现：①利用伪距与卫星激光测距比对计算的星地钟差精度可以达到1．5ns；测定的星地钟差与实际的星地钟差不存在系统差。②利用伪距与卫星激光测距比对可以完成导航卫星钟与地面系统标准时钟的比对；该方法有助于分离导航卫星的坐标和钟差，便于对星地钟差的研究。     

山东枣庄地区辐射逆温及其影响

本文运用1981年11月17日-12月16日共30天实地考察资料,分析了山东枣庄地区冬季辐射逆温时空变化规律。并探讨了辐射逆温的生成与云量、风速的关系。