南海及其邻近海域SST系统的点概率密度谱特征

采用相空间点概率密度谱分析方法对南海及其邻近海域ＮＣＥＰｒｅａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＳＳＴ候平均资料进行了分析,发现南海与其邻近海域的ＳＳＴ系统的结构均具有混沌特征,南海与孟加拉湾ＳＳＴ系统的耦合谱分布几乎一致;年变化最显著,年际变化次之,季节内变化相对较弱。邻近西太平洋ＳＳＴ系统中的准３ａ耦合振荡相当显著。对于季节内振荡,西太平洋ＳＳＴ系统强于孟加拉湾和南海的ＳＳＴ系统。结果还表明季节内振荡（３０～６０ｄ）是一种耦合振荡。     

太湖梅梁湾藻类生态模拟与蓝藻水华治理对策分析

根据目前对太湖梅梁湖生态环境的认知,建立该湖区藻类生态动力学模型进行生态模拟,基于模拟结果对太湖富营养化中最严重的蓝藻水华治理与污染物排放控制和清淤工程进行了分析。结果显示;太湖污染物排放达标将极大改善富营养水平;但应结合经济分析和效益分析,通过组合各类污染物控制总量来达到最优治理效果,模拟分析表明,单一清淤工程对于富营养化中蓝藻水华治理意义有限。     

伊乐藻-草鱼圈养复合生态系统中水生生物的变化和影响

从细菌、浮游植物、浮游动物、底栖动物和有机碎屑等几个方面分析了养鱼对伊乐藻种植区(以下简称为有草区)和无草区水域环境的影响。结果表明:两个区域存在着显著的差异性。有草区由于生长着茂密的水生植被,对环境压迫的缓冲能力增强,水生生物的群落结构较为稳定,物种多样性指数高于无草区,有机物的沉降速率也大大低于无草区。与此相比,无草区对环境压迫的缓冲能力较差,水体浮游植物数量增加,富营养化加剧。通过本项实验可以看出,人工种植伊乐藻对养鱼区水质有着明显地控制作用,是发展生态渔业的一条有效途径。     

洪涝风险图的编制与应用——以太湖流域湖西区为例

洪涝风险图的编制,是洪涝平原管理中的一项重要内容,对洪涝平原生产布局和人类经济活动具有指导作用。本文介绍了一种洪涝风险图的编制方法。首先概化平原内河图,用明渠一维非恒定流模拟水流运动,得到各地的水位和流量,比较水位和数学地形模型（ＤＥＭ）的高程,将水位高过ＤＥＭ的地方划为洪涝危险区,本文以太湖流域湖西区为例作出洪涝风险图,并且介绍了洪涝风险图在国民经济部门的应用。     

Moment magnitudes of two large Turkish earthquakes on February 6, 2023 from long-period coda

Two large earthquakes (an earthquake doublet) occurred in south-central Turkey on February 6, 2023, causing massive damages and casualties. The magnitudes and the relative sizes of the two mainshocks are essential information for scientific research and public awareness. There are obvious discrepancies among the results that have been reported so far, which may be revised and updated later. Here we applied a novel and reliable long-period coda moment magnitude method to the two large earthquakes. The moment magnitudes (with one standard error) are 7.95±0.013 and 7.86±0.012, respectively, which are larger than all the previous reports. The first mainshock, which matches the largest recorded earthquakes in the Turkish history, is slightly larger than the second one by 0.11±0.035 in magnitude or by 0.04 to 0.18 at 95% confidence level.     

湖泊环境研究的数据质量保证——以巢湖为例

本文以“巢湖富营养化研究”为例, 阐述了湖泊环境科学研究工作中监测数据质量保证工作的程序与技水要点。     

同位素地球化学在地震监测预测研究中的应用进展

随着新观测技术和理论的进一步发展,同位素地球化学方法在地震监测预测研究中发挥了越来越重要的作用。通过同位素地球化学方法确定地下流体来源,研究地下流体循环特征,分析地震前兆异常的成因,评估地质构造活动的程度,开展地震预测研究。同位素示踪技术还可以结合深源流体监测和地球物理方法,揭示地震孕育、流体与震源之间的关系。此外,同位素地球化学还可以构建断裂带流体地球化学背景特征,用于地震监测点映震效能的评估,提高地震监测预测的准确性,为地震新监测点的布设和震情跟踪提供技术支撑。通过对现今同位素在地震监测预测中所使用的方法、技术及国内外应用情况的总结分析,力图全面认识同位素地球化学在地震监测预测应用中的现状及发展趋势。     

An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.     

形变单位在地震文献中的正确使用

针对地震观测技术论文中有关形变单位"毫秒",即10~(-3″)混用为时间单位ms的情况,笔者从单位符号的意义及观测技术仪器的工作原理出发,最终明确,地震观测仪器中倾斜仪观测量单位应为10~(-3″),不能以时间单位ms代替,二者不能混为一谈。     

强震震源破裂过程浅析

通过了解强震震源区域周边地带地震破裂过程及破裂长度,根据各地震台网记录的地震数据设定计算模型,对地表或深井中的破裂效应进行研究,得出微破裂或破裂链形成的动力过程,可对地震进行一定预测。