飞机积冰预报算法对比及其集成预报模型研究

以人工增雨作业获取的飞机积冰实例资料为基础,利用WRF模式对51次飞机积冰过程进行数值模拟,对比分析了常用七种积冰预报算法对积冰潜势区和强度的预报效果,进而采用评分权重集成法建立了飞机积冰强度集成预报模型,并检验了其预报效果。结果表明:(1)假霜点温度经验法对2002年4月4日积冰个例的预报效果与实况一致,而其他积冰算法预报效果均与实况相差较大;(2)对51次飞机积冰预报效果进行统计检验发现,假霜点温度经验法的预报效果最好,积冰强度预报准确率为72.55%,其次是RAOB法,IC指数法和I积冰指数法次之,改进的IC指数法预报准确率最差,只有19.61%;(3)对比不同积冰算法建立的集成预报模型的预报效果发现,选用IC指数法、假霜点温度经验法、RAOB法进行集成预报时,预报准确率最高,且漏报率、偏弱率及偏强率均能控制在10%以内,比单一预报算法中的最高预报准确率提高了8%,且漏报率降低了4%,偏强率降低了8%。     

我国华东与西南县域主要气象敏感性疾病变化特征及其医疗费用研究

摘要：针对目前医疗费用不断上涨的现实问题,基于安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县相关医疗机构的全部住院数据和气象资料,首先分析两县疾病谱特征,然后从季节和24节气角度,分析两县主要气象敏感性疾病（因天气和气候异常变化而诱发或加重的相关疾病）住院人次和医疗费用的变化特征以及人体舒适度对当地主要气象敏感性疾病发病的影响。结果表明,阜南县和锦屏县人群中住院人数最多的疾病分别是循环和呼吸系统两大类气象敏感性疾病,医疗费用最高的前六位疾病都包含循环、呼吸和消化系统疾病,其三者医疗费用总和分别占两县总医疗费用的44.9%和45.8%,因此,从降低医疗费用的角度来看加强这三类主要气象敏感性疾病的预防十分重要。此外,三种系统疾病医疗费用呈现出明显的季节变化特征：其中,循环系统疾病的医疗费用在季节转换期间明显高于各季节内,呼吸系统疾病冬春季的医疗费用远高于夏秋季节,消化系统疾病夏季医疗费用最高。两县9月的体感温度最接近人体最佳舒适温度,而此时上述三类疾病的住院人次及医疗费用也是相对低点。此研究结果可为当地相关疾病的适时防控、有效降低医疗费用提供科学依据。     

Matlab与高级编程语言在科学计算中的联合运用

在数字地震观测、地震预报及地震工程研究中,Matlab作为一套功能强大的科学计算及数学分析软件,得到广泛的应用.本文介绍如何将Matlab高效的数值计算和分析能力与高级编程语言结合的方法.     

如何提高磁照图数字化的精度

CBMD是一款针对CB-3模拟磁照图进行数字化处理的软件,利用专业图像处理技术,对模拟磁照图进行数字化,由于模拟仪器调试及存放因素造成了图纸状况不尽相同,使用者在数字化处理过程中,根据不同的图,纸采用相应的方法进行处理,才能保证数字化结果精确度.本文就主要的几种影响处理精度的情况展开讨论,并提出具体的解决方法.     

Understanding the dynamical-microphysical-electrical processes associated with severe thunderstorms over the Beijing metropolitan region

The Dynamical-microphysical-electrical Processes in Severe Thunderstorms and Lightning Hazards(STORM973)project conducted coordinated comprehensive field observations of thunderstorms in the Beijing metropolitan region(BMR)during the warm season from 2014 to 2018.The aim of the project was to understand how dynamical,microphysical and electrical processes interact in severe thunderstorms in the BMR,and how to assimilate lightning data in numerical weather prediction models to improve severe thunderstorm forecasts.The platforms used in the field campaign included the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET,consisting of 16 stations),2 X-band dual linear polarimetric Doppler radars,and 4 laser raindrop spectrometers.The collaboration also made use of the China Meteorological Administration’s mesoscale meteorological observation network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Although diverse thunderstorm types were documented,it was found that squall lines and multicell storms were the two major categories of severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning activity and extreme rainfall or unexpected local short-duration heavy rainfall resulting in inundations in the central urban area,influenced by the terrain and environmental conditions.The flash density maximums were found in eastern Changping District,central and eastern Shunyi District,and the central urban area of Beijing,suggesting that the urban heat island effect has a crucial role in the intensification of thunderstorms over Beijing.In addition,the flash rate associated with super thunderstorms can reach hundreds of flashes per minute in the central city regions.The super(5%of the total),strong(35%),and weak(60%)thunderstorms contributed about 37%,56%,and 7%to the total flashes in the BMR,respectively.Owing to the close connection between lightning activity and the thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of the thunderstorms,the lightning flash rate can be used as an indicator of severe weather events,such as hail and short-duration heavy rainfall.Lightning data can also be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to help improve the forecasting of severe convection and precipitation at the cloud-resolved scale,through adjusting or correcting the thermodynamic and microphysical parameters of the model.     

Paleoenvironmental implications of the guano phosphatic cementation on Dongdao Island in the South China Sea

The phosphatic cement in the bioclastic sediment sequence on the northeastern shore of Dongdao Island in the South China Sea was studied and its paleoenvironmental implications discussed. Petrological characteristics and major, trace, REE element data unequivocally supported the notion that phosphatization was closely associated with avian guano decomposition and leaching, whereas carbon and oxygen isotope results further revealed that meteoric water were involved in these processes. AMS ¹⁴C dates on the brown phosphate cements indicate that they were formed around 5700, 5000–5100 and 2900 yr BP, respectively. The multi-episodes of phosphatization very likely correspond to intermittent seabird occupation on this island — possibly reflecting Holocene sea-level oscillation and/or long term climate changes in the South China Sea that have controlled seabird habitat. The phosphate cementation, which occurs widely in tropical islands, may be another useful monitor for sea-level and/or paleoclimate changes.     

东营市东营区努力开创土地开发整理工作新局面

东营区是黄河三角洲中心城市一东营市的中心区,我国第二大油田一胜利油田所在地.近年来,东营区随着城市化进程的加快,建设用地不断增多,保持耕地总量动态平衡压力很大.为确保全区耕地总量动态平衡,东营区创新机制,规范管理,积极探索增加耕地的有效途径,取得了显著成效.1999年以来,全区非农业建设占用耕地551.6 hm2,而同期增加有效耕地3 660.22 hm2,实现了耕地总量的动态平衡.     

矿产资源开发整合与区域矿业经济发展浅析——以潍坊市滨海新区卤水资源为例

对矿产资源开发进行整合是集中解决矿山布局不合理,实现规模化、集约化开发的重要手段,是调整矿业结构、促进矿业经济增长方式转变的有效途径。潍坊市滨海新区通过对卤水资源进行整合,初步实现了卤水资源的规模化开采和集约化经营,并在培育矿业龙头企业的基础上,注重矿业产业链的延伸和完整化,构建生态海洋化工产业集群,从而形成比较优势和核心竞争力,促进区域矿业经济发展。     

Dynamics and relationships of Ca, Mg, Fe in litter, soil fauna and soil in Pinus koraiensis-broadleaf mixed forest

The Liangshui Natural Reserve in Heilongjiang Province of China was selected as the study area. The authors collected the samples of forest litter （Tilia amurensis, Fraxinus mandshurica, Pinus koraiensis, Acer mono, Betula costata, and mixed litter）, soil in humus horizon （0--5cm） and soil horizon （5-20cm）, and soil macrofauna （Oligochaeta, Geophiloporpha and Juliformia） from 2001 to 2002. The role of soil macrofauna in the material cycle was analyzed through comparing the macro-element contents among various parts of the subsystems and using enrichment index （El）. The results indicate that dynamic changes of various litters are very complicated. The contents of Fe in each kind of litter increase firstly, and then decrease in the study period. The changes of macro-element contents are greater in the broad-leaf litter than in the coniferous litter, and the mixed litter is in the middle level, but the differences among them are not significant. The contents of Mg and Fe in humus are higher than those in soil, but the contents of Ca in soil are higher than that in humus. The dynamic changes of macro-element contents in soil and soil fauna are not consistent with those in litter. The diplopod presented obvious enrichment of Ca and Mg （E1〉1）, but it does not significantly enrich Fe. Earthworm has a stronger enrichment ability of Fe than diplopod and scolopendra, but E1〈1. Soil fauna can make great influences on the material cycle of the subsystems.     

A combined model of wind, wave, tide and storm surges

A combined numerical model of wind, wave, tide, and storm surges was built on the basis of the “wind field model in limited sea surface areas”. When used to forecast the sea surface wind, wave height and water level, it can describe them very well. Contribution No. 4108 from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. This work supported by Stress Project (KZ952-S1-420), Chinese Academy of Sciences; 863 Project (863-818-06-05), and (863-818-Q-07)