2022年汛期气候趋势预测与展望

中国是自然灾害频发的国家,气象灾害造成的损失占自然灾害造成损失的70%。2020年夏季出现超长梅雨期,长江和淮河发生洪水;2021年夏季,华北雨季开始早,结束晚,期间发生了“21·7”河南地区特大暴雨事件。这些气象灾害都对人民生命财产造成严重损失。因此,有必要提前对气候异常进行预测,以提高国家的防灾减灾能力。2022年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展汛期（6～8月）的全国汛期气候趋势预测会商会。通过综合大气所各个数值模式和统计模型的结果,在未来4～6个月全球短期气候仍处在La Ni?a事件恢复到ENSO正常状态的背景下,预计2022年汛期（6～8月）,东北东部和中部、华北大部分地区、黄河中下游、东南沿海、西北地区中部、西藏大部分地区、西南地区东部和云南大部分地区降水正常略偏多,其中环渤海湾地区降水偏多2～5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害。全国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中长江下游地区和新疆北部降水偏少2～5成。预计今年登陆台风数正常略偏多。由于未来ENSO的趋势演变具有一定的不确定性以及夏季降水受到中高纬大气环流季节内变化的影响,因此,此次汛期预测结果具有一定的不确定性。我们将根据2022年春末、夏初大气环流和海洋等因子的实际演变趋势,做进一步补充订正预测。     

华北东部强降水天气低层风场分型及降水落区

利用 1 992～ 2 0 0 1年 1～ 1 2月数值预报、天气图、卫星云图、渤海 4个测站及本区域 4个测站自记雨量、风向、风速等同步资料 ,对秦皇岛市出现的 1 8次暴雨、8次大雪天气过程进行综合对比分析 ,探讨了海区风向变化对降水落区的影响。通过 2 0 0 2～ 2 0 0 3年试报Ts值为 53%。     

Evidence for glaciation predating MIS-6 in the eastern Nyainqêntanglha Range,southeastern Tibet

Southeastern Tibet is one of the most glaciated regions on the Tibetan Plateau both at present and during the Quaternary. Numerical dating of glacial deposits has allowed the establishment of a provisional chronology of Quaternary glacial fluctuations in this region, with the oldest glaciation(Guxiang Glaciation) occurring in marine oxygen isotope stage 6(MIS-6).During our recent field investigations, a morphostratigraphically older lateral moraine than that of the Guxiang Glaciation has been first identified, which is ~500–600 m above the Guxiang Glaciation moraine and discontinuously preserved on valley shoulders in the Bodui Zangbo River valley, eastern Nyainqêntanglha Range in southeastern Tibet. Considering the moraine is best preserved at Nitong Village, here we name the glacier advance which deposited the moraine as "Nitong Glaciation". Using electron spin resonance(ESR) technique, we dated the Nitong Glaciation moraine to 506.3±60.4 ka. Taking into account the age error and climatic conditions, we consider it most likely that the Nitong Glaciation occurred during MIS-12, although it might had happened sometime earlier.     

Geodynamic Indications on Igneous Rocks of Transitory Geologic Setting during the Late Hercynian in North Tarim Basin

Basic and intermediate-acidic igneous rocks were developed during the late Hercynian in North Tarim basin.The geochemistry characteristics of the rocks show that basic volcanic rock has K2O/Na2O = 0.18-0.61 < 1 and falls into a category of basalt of sodium system.The rocks contain enriched large-ion lithophile elements (LILE) (K,Rb,Ba,Th) and high-field strength elements (HFSE) (Nb,Ta,Ti,Zr,P),with the magmatic material from the upper mantle.The intermediate-acidic volcanic rocks have σ = 1.91-2.96 < 3.3,K2O/Na2O =1.25-1.59 > 1,as well as the enriched LILE and depleted HFSE (Nb,Ta,Ti,P),presenting the same trace element compositions and characteristics as in the granitic rocks of South Tianshan Mt.; they are either shoshonitic igneous rocks or high-K calc-alkaline igneous rocks,with a distinct crust-derived component feature.The comprehensive analyses on the characteristics of the trace elements,the graphic tectonic discrimination,and the distribution features of the two types of igneous rocks show that they were formed under different tectonic settings and geodynamic environments:the basalt was formed in the active rifting period when the active mantle upwelling caused the thinning of lithosphere; the intermediateacidic volcanic-intrusive rock was formed in the island arc area of the active continental margin in North Tarim; the formation is associated with the plate subduction during the course of South Tianshan Ocean closure-the subduction of Middle Tianshan Mountain toward the Tarim plate.The basic and intermediate-acidic igneous rocks reveal a tectonic regime of extension-extrusion transition,which is significant in determining the key tectonic revolution period of North Tarim basin.     

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

Using observation and reanaiysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCARPCM, axe systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models‘ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors axe displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compaxed with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure axe generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances axe much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.     

成岩-极低级变质作用及油气勘探意义

采用粘土矿物学、成岩变质矿物组合、镜质体反射率及流体包裹体数据等指标,综合讨论了准噶尔盆地西北缘晚古生代地层成岩极低级变质作用的特征和油气勘探意义。变质指示矿物和古地温梯度研究确认,西北缘玛湖坳陷北段下二叠统火山岩存在极低级变质作用,具水热变质特征,变质相为葡萄石阳起石相,温度为２２０～３２０℃,压力ｐ＜２００ＭＰａ,表明极低级变质事件发生于早二叠世,未对上二叠统地层产生影响;下二叠统风城组和上二叠统地层于侏罗纪（１５０Ｍａ）达到最大古地温,为１３０～１８０℃,压力ｐ为１００～２００ＭＰａ,处于晚成岩Ａ,Ｂ期。与西准噶尔界山上古生界相比,盆地西北缘变质程度较低。因此,盆地深部上古生界仍是寻找油气、尤其是天然气的有利地带     

中国东部冬季降水的动力结合统计预测方法研究

针对中国东部6个气候关键区,首先,通过相关分析指出,冬季降水既与前期气候因子有关,又受同期大气环流的影响。因此,有必要采用动力与统计相结合的方法进行气候预测研究。然后,从实时预测的角度出发,综合考虑前期预测因子的观测信息和具有数值可预测性的同期气候因子的数值模式结果,使用多元线性回归分析方法就各区域平均冬季降水逐一建立了短期气候预测模型,并在预测模型中考虑了模型结果中系统误差的订正。交叉检验分析结果表明,所建立的各区域预测模型普遍具有较好的预测效果,预测优势主要表现在对冬季降水的变化趋势、年际变化、以及异常符号的预测准确率上。就6个区域平均而言,1982—2008年交叉检验结果与实况间的相关系数和距平同号率分别为0.69和78%,表明该预测思想具有可行性。     

A Statistical-Dynamical Scheme for the Extraseasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall for 160 Observation Stations across China

The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical-dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal(one season in advance) prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China.The scheme combined both valuable information from the preceding observations and dynamical information from synchronous numerical predictions of atmospheric circulation factors produced by an atmospheric general circulation model.First,the key preceding climatic signals and synchronous atmospheric circulation factors that were not only closely related to summer rainfall but also numerically predictable were identified as the potential predictors.Second,the extraseasonal prediction models of summer rainfall were constructed using a multivariate linear regression analysis for 15 subregions and then 160 stations across China.Cross-validation analyses performed for the period 1983-2008 revealed that the performance of the prediction models was not only high in terms of interannual variation,trend,and sign but also was stable during the whole period.Furthermore,the performance of the scheme was confirmed by the accuracy of the real-time prediction of summer rainfall during 2009 and 2010.     

湖北黄石地区上二叠统和二、三叠系界线事件地层研究

笔者近年对黄石地区上二叠统及下三叠统进行了研究,采到了有时代意义的化石。二叠—三叠系界线划在伊利石粘土层(冶钢二门剖面34层)之底,稍低于传统界线。在界线地层中发现大量微球粒,从其特征分析可能是火山喷发成因。在界线粘土层中还发现簇状沸石、火山玻屑和高温石英等,证明中国南部当时的火山活动在黄石地区有反映。