深圳市海域浮标监测网的站位设计和数据应用

深圳市基于不同海洋功能区环境监测的需要,充分考虑各海域环境要素,构建了由13个浮标组成的较为合理的海洋浮标监测网。文章重点介绍分布在大亚湾、大鹏湾、深圳湾和珠江口海域的13个浮标站位的具体设计情况,主要包括所在(邻近)海洋功能区、基础(选配)观测参数、数据应用方向以及监测参数和监测频率等。此外,提出海洋浮标监测系统可为海洋功能区环境评价和重要赛事提供环境数据支撑、实现重点功能区的长期在线监测以及对海洋环境灾害信息进行全过程记录,数据应用前景广阔,亟须在今后的工作中加强应用研究。     

基于卫星观测的2003-2013年北极海冰体积变化估算

北极海冰正处于快速减退时期,北极海冰体积变化是全球气候变化的重要指示因子。本文利用两种卫星高度计数据（ICESat和CryoSat-2）反演得到的海冰厚度数据,结合星载辐射计提取的海冰密集度数据以及海冰年龄数据,估算了近期的北极海冰体积以及一年冰和多年冰体积变化。CryoSat-2观测时段（2011-2013年）与ICESat观测时段（2003-2008年）相比,北极海冰体积在秋季（10-11月）和冬季（2-3月）分别减少了1 426 km3和412 km3。其中,秋季和冬季的一年冰的体积增加了702 km3和2 975 km3。相反,多年冰分别减少了2 108 km3和3 206 km3。多年冰的大量流失是造成北极海冰净储量下降的主要原因。     

Study on the Properties of Blazar Jets

The multi-wavelength quasi-simultaneous data of 55 Fermi blazars are fitted by using the conical jet model, and the physical properties of blazar jets are also investigated. Through the X²-minimization fitting procedure, the best-fit parameters of the conical jet model are obtained. Combined with the other parameters we collected, a statistical analysis is performed. The results of statistical analysis are summarized as follows: (1) The jet power obtained by the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting is larger than the jet power calculated by using the extended radio luminosity; (2) There is no correlation between the Doppler factor 5 and the magnetic field strength B; (3) There is a correlation between the jet power and the accretion disk luminosity, and the Blandford-Znajek (BZ) mechanism can well explain the energy source of BL Lac jets rather than Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars (FSRQs); (4) The jet power is significantly correlated with the black hole mass.     

气候模式并行计算

气候模式并行计算是国内外最近重视开展的在大规模并行计算机上应用的并行软件的开发工作。“气候动力学和气候预测理论的研究”国家攀登项目近年来先后在国产曙光１０００和曙光１０００Ａ并行计算机上开展了气候模式并行计算工作。所用的气候模式是气候动力学项目“八五”阶段设计发展的９层全球格点大气环流模式和从１９９７年起着手研制的１８层全球格点大气环流模式。这是我国首次进行的气候数值模式并行计算工作,阶段性工作取得了合理的并行效率。研究表明以大气环流模式为代表的气候模式是最适合并行计算机实际应用的科研任务之一,国产并行计算机有能力在该领域实际应用中发挥作用。     

A Review on the Research Progress in Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) in the World

In this paper, the research progress of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) is introduced from the major areas of concern, the concept of probability gain, hybrid model development,and the application to earthquake disaster reduction.Due to the development of OEF based on the global "Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)" plan, it provides a significant technical foundation for earthquake forecast modeling and a practical foundation for solving the actual problems in earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation.Therefore, related research and technical ideas provide inspirational and referential significance for earthquake forecasting/prediction.     

Magnetotelluric responses of three-dimensional conductive and magnetic anisotropic anomalies

A magnetotelluric finite-element modelling algorithm is developed, which is capable of handling three-dimensional conductive and magnetic anisotropic anomalies. Different from earlier three-dimensional magnetotelluric anisotropic modelling methods, the algorithm we presented has taken the magnetic anisotropy into consideration. The variational equations are produced by the Galerkin method and the governing equations are solved using a hexahedral vector edge finite-element method. The accuracy of this algorithm is firstly validated by comparing its solutions with the results of finite-difference method for a three-dimensional conductive arbitrary anisotropic model, and then validated by comparing with analytical solutions for a one-dimensional magnetic model. The responses of four kinds of models under different conditions are studied, and some conclusions are obtained. It shows that for materials with a high magnetic permeability, its influence on magnetotelluric responses cannot be ignored in some circumstances. Especially, if the magnetic susceptibility is exceptionally high, it may really distort the apparent resistivities of lower resistive anomalies. These conclusions are also beneficial for magnetotelluric survey.     

辽宁测震台网地震观测报告质量分析

就地震分布、震相质量、深度分布以及地震震级等,对辽宁测震台网2010-2017年地震观测报告进行分析,得到辽宁地区地震波主要震相的平均传播速度,分别为：Pn震相平均传播速度为7.87 km/s,Pg震相平均传播速度为4.48 km/s,Sn震相平均传播速度为4.48 km/s,Sg震相平均传播速度为3.56 km/s,认为引起震相走时偏差较大的主要原因为地震定位误差及震相不易识别。     

中国的耕地沙化及防止技术措施

耕地沙化是人类不合理地开发利用耕地及风力、水力等外力共同作用的产物, 主要分布于我国干旱、半干旱及部分半湿润的北方地区, 南方丘陵山区也有分布, 总面积256.21万hm²。通过耕地沙化的原因分析, 提出必须综合应用林草、农业、水利措施, 才能有效地防止耕地沙化。     

可操作的地震预测(OEF)国际研究动态综述

对目前国际上正持续开展的"可操作的地震预测"的研究动态,从主要关注的领域、"概率增益"概念的引入、混合模型研发及其在地震减灾中的应用等方面进行了重点介绍。由于OEF是在全球"地震可预测性合作研究"计划基础上逐步发展起来,具有重要的地震预测模型研发的技术基础以及解决地震减灾决策实际问题的实践基础,因此,相关研究动态和技术思路对我国的地震预测预报工作具有重要的启发和借鉴意义。     

基于PMC方法的辽宁测震台网监测能力评估

为获得辽宁测震台网科学准确的监测能力评估结果,分析辽宁及周边地区的地震监测能力时空分布特征,为测震台网的优化提供科学依据。本研究首次将"基于概率的完整性震级"(PMC)方法应用到辽宁测震台网,通过计算获得辽宁地震台网37个台站的单台检测概率、测震台网合成检测概率以及基于概率的最小完整性震级M_P。单台检测概率表明:PMC方法能够客观地反映台站对地震事件的检测能力;营口—海城老震区周围的台站对较小震级的地震有较高的检测能力,受台网布局影响,位于辽宁边界地区台站的检测能力较弱。M_P时空分布特征显示:辽宁中部沈阳—辽阳—本溪—鞍山—盘锦地区1.5≥M_P≥1.2。辽宁南部大连一带监测能力较低M_P≥3.0,辽宁西部与河北交界地区3.0≥M_P≥2.5,辽宁其他区域2.5≥M_P≥1.8。研究结果表明,为进一步提高辽宁地震台网监测能力,需在辽宁东部、东南部建设台站以提高该区域台站密度,在辽宁西部地区建设部分台站和重新规划需要引入的河北共享台站,以提高该区域的台站密度及改善台站空间布局和该区域的监测能力。