沈阳地区沙尘天气分析

本文总结了沈阳地区沙尘天气的时空分布特点，从天气条件、地表自然条件(沙源)两方面分析了沈阳地区沙尘天气的成因，总结了沈阳地区预报沙尘天气时应参考的5个因素。     

人工神经网络方法预报长江上游流域面雨量的探讨

利用1998～2000年3～11月长江上游六大流域逐日降水实况和MAPS、T106(T213)、欧洲中心等数值产品资料，采用人工神经网络方法，建立了六大流域强降水面雨量等级预报模型。并于2002年6～9月进行了业务试验。     

2003年淮河流域大水期间体积降水量的研究

针对 2 0 0 3年梅雨期淮河流域大水提出了体积降水量的概念及其计算方法 ,在计算出淮河流域和其各子流域逐日和总体积降水量的基础上 ,将体积降水量与水文站的水位和流量进行了对比分析。结果表明 :水位对累计体积降水量有较好的即时响应 ,流量对体积降水量有较好的延迟响应。另外 ,讨论了流域体积降水量的预报问题 ,用国内外数值天气预报产品和中央气象台指导预报产品 ,进行了流域体积降水量预报试验 ,并对预报结果进行了检验分析。结果表明 :在目前天气预报水平条件下 ,利用数值天气预报和中央气象台业务预报产品制作体积降水量是可行的 ,能够延长洪水预报的预见期 ;而且 ,数值天气预报产品在预报体积降水量方面有明显的优势 ,因此可以直接利用数值天气预报产品进行体积降水量的客观预报 ,为防汛工作提供重要的依据。     

Neodymium isotopic variations in Northwest Pacific waters

Four vertical profiles of the concentration and isotopic composition of Nd in seawater were obtained in the western North Pacific. Two profiles from the Kuroshio Current regime showed congruently that although the Nd concentration increases gradually with depth, its isotopic composition varies significantly with depth depending upon the water mass occupying the water column. The high-salinity Kuroshio waters originating from the North Pacific Tropical Water (NPTW) carry the least radiogenic Nd (?_Nd = −7.4 to −8.7) to this region at ∼250 m from the western margin continental shelves, most likely from the East China Sea. The Nd isotopic compositions in the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) that occurs at 600 to 1000 m in the subtropical region are fairly uniform at ?_Nd = −3.7. The profile data from the ∼38° to 40°N Kuroshio/Oyashio mixed water region off Sanriku of Honshu, Japan, also suggest that the newest NPIW with ?_Nd = −3.2 is formed there by the mixing of various source waters, and the radiogenic component of Nd is derived mainly from the Oyashio waters.In the Pacific Deep Water (PDW) below ∼1000 m, the Nd isotopic composition is neither vertically nor horizontally homogeneous, suggesting that it serves as a useful tracer for sluggish deep water circulation as well. Two profiles from the Izu-Ogasawara Trench showed a minimum ?_Nd value at ∼2000 m, suggesting that there exists a horizontal advective flow in the vicinity of Honshu, Japan. There is some evidence from other chemical properties to support this observation. The waters below 4000 m including those within the trench in the subtropical region have ?_Nd values of around −5, suggesting that the deep waters are fed from the south along the western boundary, ultimately from the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) in the South Pacific. This extends up to ∼40°N along the Japanese Islands. In the subarctic region (>∼42°N), the waters have more radiogenic Nd with ?_Nd > −4.0 throughout the water column, presumably due to the supply of Nd by weathering in such igneous provinces as the Kuril-Kamchatska-Aleutian Island chain. The lateral inhomogeneity of the Nd isotopic composition in PDW suggests that there may be different circulation and mixing regimes in the North Pacific Basin.     

国内旅游文化开发研究综述

旅游文化是一种重要的旅游资源。是旅游地可持续发展的源泉。在旅游地开发过程中，文化事项如何转化为旅游产品，即旅游文化开发是一个极具实际应用价值的研究课题。目前，国内对于旅游文化开发的研究还没有能够形成一个完整的理论研究体系，并且缺少成熟的研究方法，具体到实践中可操作性还比较弱。在查阅了国内近20年中的众多相关研究文献的基础上，试图从应用理论、开发实践、方法探索3个方面对国内的旅游文化开发研究做一个系统的总结。     

博斯腾湖向塔里木河输水风险分析方法

为了拯救塔里木河下游生态环境，塔里木河流域管理局根据博斯腾湖从1999年到2003年处于丰水期，湖泊处于高水位的有利时机，从2000年5月到2003年6月实施5次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水，结束塔里木河下游300多km河道近30年的断流历史。现在的问题是“博斯腾湖向塔里木河生态输水能否持续?”，“保证可持续输水的风险有多大?”本文以解决此问题为实例，介绍一般水库调节计算和水库特征水位确定方法；主要探讨水库(湖泊)向下游输水可持续性风险分析问题，提出的方法称为“水库输水可持续性风险计算时历试算法”，简称为“试算法”(T＆E方法)；并将此方法应用于实例中，计算博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游输水的可持续风险。     

不同降水天气系统自然降水特征及火箭人工增雨潜力分析

统计分析了1981~2000年20年中15种降水天气系统影响下河北地区自然降水特征,并对火箭人工增雨的潜力进行了初步分析。统计分析表明:西来槽类、高空低涡类、冷锋、切变线和副高后部等天气系统是影响河北地区的主要降水系统,其降雨量和降雨日数占到了90%以上;不同的天气系统在不同季节对降水的贡献有所不同,其中西来槽类的降雨量和降雨日数均居首位,开展人工增雨催化作业机会最多;夏季降水系统最强,云水资源最为丰富,人工增雨潜力很大,是开展火箭人工增雨催化作业的最佳季节,春秋两季增雨潜力明显比夏季小,冬季最小;倒槽、副高后部、台风低压、高空低涡类和气旋类等系统最强,日降雨量和单位面积降雨量明显比其它系统大,尤其对蓄水型火箭增雨作业十分有利。     

震群精定位问题讨论

本文利用一组高精度数字记录台站在新西兰北岛附近观测得到的一个地震群资料,选用合适的地壳结构,合理控制造成误差的因素,应用偏振技术提高地震波震相判定的分辨率,最后反演计算获得震源的定位解.虽然这个震群仅发生在15 km长的小条形区域内,由于较高的定位精度,能较清晰地反映出火山地区地震活动的特点,尤其是深度分布图像表现了一种非任意性.     

再论各向异性介质转换波地震学,第一部分:理论

我们业已研发了计算各向异性、非均质介质中P- SV转换波(C-波)的转换点和旅行时的新理论。据此 可以利用诸如相似性分析、迪克斯模型建模、克契 霍夫求和等常规方法来完成各向异性的处理和各向 异性处理,并使各向异性的处理成为可能。这里将 我们的新发展分作两部分来介绍。第一部分为理 论,第二部分为对速度分析和参数计算的应用。第 一部分理论包括转换点的计算和动校正的分析。     

Thermodynamic conditions of framework grain dissolution of clastic rocks and its application in Kela 2 gas field

Feldspar and clastic debris are the most important constituent framework grains of sedimentary clastic rocks and their chemical dissolution plays an essential role in the formation and evolution of the secondary pore in the reservoir rocks. On the basis of thermodynamic phase equilibrium, this study investigates the chemical equilibrium relationships between fluid and various plagioclase and K-feldspar in diagenesis of the sediments, particularly, the impact of temperature and fluid compositions (pH, activity of K+, Na+, Ca2+ and so on) on precipitation and dissolution equilibria of feldspars. Feldspar is extremely easily dissolved in the acid pore water with a low salinity when temperature decreases. The dissolution of anorthite end-member of plagioclase is related to the Ca content of the mineral and the fluid, higher Ca either in the mineral or in the fluid, easier dissolution of the feldspar. Moreover, the dissolution of albite end-member of plagioclase is related to Na of both the mineral and fluid,