青藏高原水文模拟的现状及未来

介绍了青藏高原水文模拟的研究现状和发展趋势。水文模拟是研究水文过程的主要手段,可为流域水资源管理及防灾减灾提供理论和决策支持。国际上第一代水文模型为"集总式",第二代水文模型为"分布式",但它们大都以描述降水—产流的水分输移为主("水圈"),未仔细考虑陆—气水热交换中植被的调节作用("生物圈—大气圈")。近10年来,在气候变化的背景下,随着大气科学以及生态学的蓬勃发展,分布式水文模型开始描述生物圈—大气圈相互作用;通过改进陆—气间的水热交换过程以及植被的生理过程,实现了对流域水圈—生物圈—大气圈的综合模拟。然而,针对显著受冰冻圈过程影响的青藏高原,需要深入研究冰冻圈与其他圈层(水圈/生物圈/大气圈)的相互作用机理,并实现其在水文模拟中的参数化,以提升区域水资源和水灾害的预测能力。     

重庆市冬季雾的物理化学特性

在１９８９年１２月１５日至１９９０年１月１５日和１９９０年１２月７日至１９９１年１月７日，对重庆市区冬季雾进行了综合观测试验。从多项观测资料综合分析了雾的物理化学结构，揭示了重庆市区冬季雾许多重要的有别于外地的特征。     

Variations of early autumn rainfall in the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau

The variability of climate in the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) often exhibits unique features. In this study, the authors investigate the variations of early autumn rainfall in the lee side of the TP (LSTP). The rainfall amount and number of rain days in LSTP increase from August to September. The center of heavy and torrential rains during September is located in LSTP as well. These unique features are attributed to later withdrawal of the East Asian summer monsoon in the middle and higher troposphere compared to the lower troposphere and stronger South Asian summer monsoon and thermal forcing of the TP. The September rainfall in LSTP experienced strong interdecadal fluctuation, with overall below normal rainfall from mid-1980s to late 2000s, while there was no apparent long-term trend in the August and October rainfall amount. The above normal September rainfall is associated with an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific, a weaker-than-normal ridge around the Lake Baikal, a stronger-than-normal East Asian jet stream, and warmer air over the southeastern TP. The interdecadal decrease in rainfall in September may be caused by the central equatorial Pacific warming, which induces an anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific. The September anomalous cyclone is stronger and more westward compared to that in August and October, and thus favors the below normal rainfall in LSTP.     

Weak GPS signal tracking using FFT discriminator in open loop receiver

An open loop tracking architecture, which tracks GPS signals under weak and challenging conditions, is analyzed. The in-phase and quadrature-phase integration pair is regarded as a single tone complex signal. An FFT-based method is used as a frequency discriminator to estimate the Doppler frequency residual of the single tone signal. Another FFT-based method applies complex squaring to eliminate the effect of the navigation data bits polarities. The performance of the FFT-based discriminators is assessed in three criteria. Those criteria are the signal strength and dynamic range that can be tracked and the accuracy of the estimated Doppler frequency. In addition, the performance of the discriminators is analyzed to provide the theoretical and simulated peak detection probability. The results indicate that the FFT discriminator can track signals about 5 dB weaker than the signals that can be tracked by the complex squared FFT discriminator. In a quasi-static environment, the Doppler frequency residual can be assumed to be around zero, which can enable the FFT-based discriminators to track signals with approximately 2 dB less power. Moreover, the performance of the FFT-based discriminators is compared with the performance of two other frequency discriminators, namely the fast–slow and power-based. The comparison results indicate that these two frequency discriminators give higher frequency estimation accuracy, but they have a narrower dynamic range.     

Seismic profile analysis of the Kangra and Dehradun re-entrant of NW Himalayan Foreland thrust belt,India: A new approach to delineate subsurface geometry

In the NW Sub-Himalayan frontal thrust belt in India, seismic interpretation of subsurface geometry of the Kangra and Dehradun re-entrant mismatch with the previously proposed models. These procedures lack direct quantitative measurement on the seismic profile required for subsurface structural architecture. Here we use a predictive angular function for establishing quantitative geometric relationships between fault and fold shapes with ‘Distance–displacement method’ (D–d method). It is a prognostic straightforward mechanism to probe the possible structural network from a seismic profile. Two seismic profiles Kangra-2 and Kangra-4 of Kangra re-entrant, Himachal Pradesh (India), are investigated for the fault-related folds associated with the Balh and Paror anticlines. For Paror anticline, the final cut-off angle \(\beta =35{^{\circ }}\) was obtained by transforming the seismic time profile into depth profile to corroborate the interpreted structures. Also, the estimated shortening along the Jawalamukhi Thrust and Jhor Fault, lying between the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) and the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) in the frontal fold-thrust belt, were found to be 6.06 and 0.25 km, respectively. Lastly, the geometric method of fold-fault relationship has been exercised to document the existence of a fault-bend fold above the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT). Measurement of shortening along the fault plane is employed as an ancillary tool to prove the multi-bending geometry of the blind thrust of the Dehradun re-entrant.     

Experimental study on the instability mechanism of the major-defect fractured rock

Based on calculations of rock fracture surface and angle, incremental-load creep experiments were conducted on two groups of major-defect fractured rock specimens in an RLW-2000 rheology test system. The research investigated the fracture type and the creep properties of major-defect fractured rock and analyzed the relationships between failure load and horizontal or vertical projection distance, and between each of theme and fracture area or angle. The results showed that rock fracture was divided into three types according to the distribution, including I, II, and III types. I, II, and III types were respectively an internal fracture running through neither the upper nor lower end, one through the upper or lower end and one through both upper and lower ends, and a III type was further sub-divided into III_I and III_II types. The instantaneous strain was larger than the creep strain under the same creep loading stage. As the creep loading increased on two groups of major-defect fractured rock, the instantaneous strain decreased abruptly and then increased abruptly, while the creep strain decreased rapidly at first and later increased near-linearly. When the failure angle was larger than the friction angle, failure load was positively correlated with failure angle yet was negatively correlated with vertical projection distance. Vertical projection distance and fracture angle, which decided fracture type, controlled rock failure load. Failure load increased in turn from I type to III type, and low-type fracture determined mainly failure load in multiply-fracture specimen.     

Wavefield analysis of crosswell seismic data

Despite the numerous advantages of crosswell seismic data over surface seismic data, crosswell seismic geophysics is still underutilized and underdeveloped. The factors limiting the full utilization of crosswell data include the lack of standardized methods for processing and imaging the data. This is because crosswell data is not completely understood. To improve the understanding of crosswell data, we performed acoustic and elastic modeling of a west Texas carbonate oilfield data using finite difference methods and crosswell geometry. To account for the different wave modes in the field data, we decomposed the full data into its constituent wave modes. Results of the forward modeling show that elastic synthetic data is a better representation of crosswell field data than the popular acoustic synthetic data. Wavefield decomposition gave insight into the time-space kinematics behavior of the different wave modes that constitute the full data. Overall, the study improved our understanding of crosswell field data. The learning from this study has been utilized to perform data-driven reflection enhancement processing where the discerned characteristic of different seismic arrival is utilize to suppress unwanted and enhanced the desired wave modes. The processing reduced the complex data to only up-going P-P reflections that can be imaged to reveal the subtle geological structures of the oilfield.     

Towards a Digital Earth: using archetypes to enable knowledge interoperability within geo-observational sensor systems design

Earth System Science (ESS) observational data are often inadequately semantically enriched by geo-observational information systems to capture the true meaning of the associated data sets. Data models underpinning these information systems are often too rigid in their data representation to allow for the ever-changing and evolving nature of ESS domain concepts. This impoverished approach to observational data representation reduces the ability of multi-disciplinary practitioners to share information in a computable way. Object oriented techniques that are typically employed to model data in a complex domain (with evolving domain concepts) can unnecessarily exclude domain specialists from the design process, invariably leading to a mismatch between the needs of the domain specialists, and how the concepts are modelled. In many cases, an over simplification of the domain concept is captured by the computer scientist. This paper proposes that two-level modelling methodologies developed by health informaticians to tackle problems of domain specific use-case knowledge modelling can be re-used within ESS informatics. A translational approach to enable a two-level modelling process within geo-observational sensor systems design is described. We show how the Open Geospatial Consortium’s (OGC) Observations & Measurements (O&M) standard can act as a pragmatic solution for a stable reference-model (necessary for two-level modelling), and upon which more volatile domain specific concepts can be defined and managed using archetypes. A rudimentary use-case is presented, followed by a worked example showing the implementation methodology and considerations leading to an O&M based, two-level modelling design approach, to realise semantically rich and interoperable Earth System Science based geo-observational sensor systems.     

Urban consolidation and house prices: a case study of Melbourne 1990–2004

This paper explores the links between a strategic policy, urban consolidation, and house prices by examining the changes in the mix of housing and in house price for the period 1991–2004. We contend that urban consolidation could be seen as a source of additional supply, (which might be expected to be felt in lower prices and so contribute to a local policy objective) but also as a stimulus to demand (by developers who could bid up the price of lots where it was understood more housing could be built). Analyses were carried out at the metropolitan and sub-regional scales using correlation tests. The research finds very weak statistical connections, and concludes that this policy has not been associated with price changes.