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911.
A study of the circulation in the northern South China Sea (SCS) is carried out with the aid of a three-dimensional, high-resolution regional ocean model. One control and two sensitivity experiments are performed to qualitatively investigate the effects of surface wind forcing, Kuroshio intrusion, and bottom topographic influence on the circulation in the northern SCS. The model results show that a branch of the Kuroshio in the upper layer can intrude into the SCS and have direct influence on the circulation over the continental shelf break in the northern SCS. There are strong southward pressure gradients along a zonal belt largely seaward of the continental slope. The pressure gradients are opposite in the southern and northern parts of the Luzon Strait, indicating inflow and outflow through the strait, respectively. The sensitivity experiments suggest that the Kuroshio intrusion is responsible for generating the imposed pressure head along the shelf break and has no obvious seasonal variations. The lateral forcing through the Luzon Strait and Taiwan Strait can induce the southwestward slope current and the northeastward SCS Warm Current in the northern SCS. Without the lateral forcing, there is the continental slope. The wind forcing mainly causes the The wind-induced water pile-up results in the southward no high-pressure-gradient zonal belt seaward of seasonal variation of the circulation in the SCS. high pressure gradient along the northwestern boundary of the basin. Without the blocking of the plateau around Dongsha Islands, the intruded Kuroshio tends to extend northwest and the SCS branch of the Kuroshio becomes wider and stronger. The analyses presented here are qualitative in nature but should lead to a better understanding of the oceanic responses in the northern SCS to these external influence factors. 相似文献
912.
913.
为了适应精细化预报和业务管理的发展需求,国家气象中心建设开发了基于Web的国家级天气预报检验分析系统。系统分为预报检验、检验文件解析处理、检验数据查询分析与检验平台管理4个功能模块,关键技术包括标准化的数据管理、开放式的算法模块管理与调度和检验数据的可视化分析。系统建立了规范高效的检验业务数据流程,兼容处理预报分析制作系统(MICAPS)数据、GRIB2数据、城镇报数据、自动气象站数据等其他专业气象数据,涵盖了国家级省级智能网格预报、全国城镇天气预报、定量降水预报、大城市空气质量预报等数十项检验业务产品,给出了空间分布、柱状图及数据表格等展现形式。系统为全国各级预报员、模式开发人员和管理人员提供预报检验反馈信息,为各省以及国家级预报业务考核提供了信息支撑;同时系统提供逐旬、月、年度的智能网格预报以及城镇天气预报的检验结果对比,有力支撑了智能网格预报产品业务研发和业务试验。 相似文献
914.
气候舒适的程度及持续时间的长短,是影响旅游发展和人类居住环境适应性的重要因素。基于1981 2010年普洱市10个县区气象站的日平均气温、相对湿度及风速等常规气象观测资料,对季节划分、气温极值和平均气温空间分布进行了分析,计算舒适度指数(包括温湿指数、风寒指数、人体舒适度指数),研究了普洱市的宜居气候舒适性。结果表明:普洱市夏季90%的区域平均气温为20~24℃,仅有东部和中部少数河谷地带超过24℃;冬季90%的区域平均气温均在10℃以上。冬半年全市最低气温低于0℃的年平均日数不足1天,夏半年全市最高气温高于35.0℃的年平均日数不足4天。因此普洱市"冬无严寒、夏无酷暑",全年有6~9个月的春秋宜人气候,是典型的全年"人体感觉舒适"的宜居气候区,尤以夏半年最为舒适。近10年普洱市快速增长的旅游总人数和完成的GDP进一步说明普洱市的宜居和旅游的气候适宜性。 相似文献
915.
ABSTRACT Satellite-based observations provide great opportunities for improving weather forecasting. Physical retrieval of atmo spheric profiles from satellite observations is sensitive to the uncertainty of the first guess and other factors. In order to improve the accuracy of the physical retrieval, an ensemble methodology was developed with an emphasis on perturbing the first guess. In the methodology, a normal probability density function (PDF) is used to select the optimal profile from the ensemble retrievals. The ensemble retrieval algorithm contains four steps: (1) regression retrieval for original first guess; (2) perturbation of the original first guess to generate new first guesses (ensemble first guesses); (3) using the ensemble first guesses and nonlinear iterative physical retrieval to generate ensemble physical results; and (4) the final optimal profile is selected from the ensemble physical results by using PDE Temperature eigenvectors (EVs) were used to generate the pertur- bation and generate the ensemble first guess. Compared with the regular temperature profile retrievals from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), the ensemble retrievals RMSE of temperature profiles selected by the PDF was reduced between 150 and 320 hPa and below 400 hPa, with a maximum improvement of 0.3 K at 400 hPa. The bias was also reduced in many layers, with a maximum improvement of 0.69 K at 460 hPa. The combined optimal (CombOpt) profile and a mean optimal (MeanOpt) profile of all ensemble physical results were improved below 150 hPa. The MeanOpt profile was better than the CombOpt profile, and was regarded as the final optimal (FinOpt) profile. This study lays the foundation for improving temperature retrievals from hyper-spectral infrared radiance measurements. 相似文献
916.
小尺度地形引起的切变重力波 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
在大气边界层中,特别是山区的边界层中,经常可以观测到重力波的活动。例如Bull和Neisser分析了1974年4月至7月的2300时的微气压计记录。他们发现约38%的观测时间里都存在振幅至少为10—20 dPa的重力波活动,其中大多数重力波的振幅为25—70 dPa。由于风速切变和温度层结的不同,重力波引起的垂直位移的大小可能为百米,也可能达到整个夜间边界层厚度的量级。 很多大气活动都可能引起重力波,例如锋面、低空急流、局地风切变、逆温及强对流等等。地形特别是在夜间也是产生重力波的重要来源。当稳定度随高度急剧减少或风速随高度急剧增加时,在山脊的背风坡经常可以发现一系列的波动活动。 相似文献
917.
Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) 总被引:6,自引:2,他引:6
Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation (IAV), and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (cooling) in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO.
We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill. 相似文献
We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill. 相似文献
918.
定位精度是评价雷电定位网络的重要指标之一,定位算法直接影响雷电探测结果的精度。雷电监测系统探测数据误差不可避免,传统定位算法不具备抗误差干扰能力,迭代计算易发散,定位结果精度不高。为了满足实际应用需求,提出一种新的雷电定位算法DG-LLA(DBSCAN and grid-search lighting location algorithm),在定位计算中引入DBSCAN(density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise)方法与网格搜索方法。通过仿真与国家雷电监测网实际定位结果对比分析定位算法性能。结果表明:到达时间差(time difference of arrival,TDOA)法和Taylor级数展开法定位误差较大,仿真区域的均方根误差分别为982 m和668 m;定位中引入DBSCAN方法后,均方根误差明显减小为406 m,引入DBSCAN方法和网格搜索方法后,均方根误差减小为349 m;在相同回击数据条件下,算法DG-LLA与国家雷电监测网相比定位数量更多,回击数据的利用率从43.4%提升到51.5%,新增定位结果周围雷达回波特征较强,定位精度更高。 相似文献
919.
920.