Risk assessment of human neural tube defects using a Bayesian belief network

Neural tube defects (NTDs) constitute the most common type of birth defects. How much risk of NTDs could an area take? The answer to this question will help people understand the geographical distribution of NTDs and explore its environmental causes. Most existing methods usually take the spatial correlation of cases into account and rarely consider the effect of environmental factors. However, especially in rural areas, the NTDs cases have a little effect on each other across space, whereas the role of environmental factors is significant. To demonstrate these points, Heshun, a county with the highest rate of NTDs in China, was selected as the region of interest in the study. Bayesian belief network was used to quantify the probability of NTDs occurred at villages with no births. The study indicated that the proposed method was easy to apply and high accuracy was achieved at a 95% confidence level.     

有关新疆铜矿找矿勘查的几点启示

近二十年来,新疆铜矿勘查取得了显著成就,也展示了更好的未来,本文根据新疆铜矿的基本成矿规律与分布特征,提出了新疆铜矿找矿的三个主攻类型、三个远景类型及有利于形成铜矿的四片地块,铜矿趋向于集中在板块的结合部位、古生代是新疆铜矿的成矿时期,并就如何进一不开展新疆铜矿的找矿勘查提出了建议。     

Diagnostic calculation of the upper-layer circulation in the South China Sea during the winter of 1998

On the basis of hydrographic data obtained in November 28 to December 27, 1998 cruise, the calculation of the circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) is made by using the P-vector method, in combination with SSH data from TOPEX/ERS-2 analysis. For study of the dynamical mechanism, which causes the pattern of winter circulation in the SCS, the diagnostic model (Yuan et al., 1982; Yuan and Su, 1992) is used to simulate numerically the winter circulation in the SCS. The following results have been obtained.(1) The main characteristics of the circulation systems in the central SCS are as follows: A coastal southward jet in winter is present at the western boundary near the coast of Vietnam; there is a stronger cyclonic circulation with a larger horizontal scale east of this coastal southward jet and west of 114°E; there is a weaker anti-cyclonic circulation in the central part of eastern SCS; there is a stronger and northeastward flow opposing the northeasterly monsoon between above a stronger cyclonic circulation and a weaker anti-cyclonic circulation.(2) The circulation systems in the northern SCS are as follows: 1)There is a cyclonic circulation system northwest of Luzon, and it has three centers of the cold water; 2) There is an anti-cyclonic eddy. Its center is located near(20°N, 116°40' E); 3)There is a warm and anti-cyclonic circulation south of Hainan Island; 4) There is a northeastward flow, the South China Sea Warm Current, in winter off Guangdong coast in the northern SCS.(3) In the southem SCS there is an anti-cyclonic circulation, and also there is a smaller scale cold water and cyclonic eddy.(4) The above pattern of winter circulation in the SCS agrees qualitatively with the horizontal distribution of temperature at 200 m level.(5) The dynamical mechanism which produces the above basic pattern of winter circulation is because of the following two causes: 1) The joint effect of the baroclinity and relief (JEBAR) is an essential dynamical cause; 2) The interaction between the wind stress and bottom topographic (IBWT) under the strong northeasterly monsoon is the next important dynamical mechanism.(6) Comparing the hydrographic structure and the horizontal distribution of velocity with the SSH data from TOPEX/ERS-2 analysis in the SCS during December of 1998, it is found that they agree qualitatively.     

一种提高含边界扫描器件电路板在线测试速度的新方法

在包含有边界扫描器件的电路板在线测试 (In Circuit Test,ICT)中 ,采用边界扫描技术可以简化高密度集成电路的测试矢量生成。但如何在 ICT中减少边界扫描测试矢量从而提高测试速度 ,是 1个重要问题。本文结合 1个实例 ,讨论在 ICT中 ,采用伪穷举法与 Delta Scan法相结合 ,在保证原错误覆盖率不变的情况下减少测试矢量数 ,增加测试速度的方法。     

台湾海峡西部海底有用重砂高品位分布与找矿意义

锆石,钛铁矿,金红石,独居石等有用重砂品位分析表明,台湾海峡西部海底各有用重砂存在有高品位分布。中央盆地西部等具有富集成矿条件,相当部分仍在可采水深范围之内,具有找矿意义。     

The free vibration analysis of submerged cantilever plates

Based on empirical added mass formulation, this work presents a simple procedure to determine the vibration frequencies and mode shapes of submerged cantilever plates. Once the added mass formulation is derived, the procedure can be used to analyze free vibration response easily. An analytical and numerical study is also performed for the vibrations of cantilever plates in air and in water, with these results compared with experimental and numerical data from pertinent literature. Besides, the frequency parameters of the submerged plate for various aspect ratios and thickness ratios are given in design data sheet form and are appropriate for engineering design applications.     

海洋重磁测网判定测线相交的实用方法

在海洋重磁调查领域,判断测网中2条测线相交与否是重磁数据处理中需要解决的重要问题之一,目标是能够快速准确地确定交叉点的位置,从而计算出交点差。针对以往计算方法的不足,利用计算几何学中同一平面上线段相交的几何特征和计算方法,通过排斥判断和跨越判断2个步骤,对线段的相交与否进行判别,编写的程序逻辑简洁、实用,避免了数学错误。在实际应用中,提高了判断线段相交的效率和准确性,取得了良好的效果。     

Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Sea Surface Wind along the East Coast of Guangdong Province

We analyzed the frequency distribution characteristics of wind speeds occurring at different offshore sites within a range of 0–200 km based on the sea surface wind data captured via buoys and oil platforms located along the east coast of Guangdong Province. The results of the analysis showed that average wind speed measured for each station reached a maximum in winter while minima occurred in summer, corresponding to obvious seasonal variation, and average wind speed increased with offshore distance. The prevailing wind direction at the nearshore site is the easterly wind, and the frequency of winds within 6–10 m s^–1 is considerable with that of winds at > 10 m s^–1. With the increase of the offshore distance, the winds were less affected by the land, and the prevailing wind direction gradually became northerly winds, predominately those at > 10 m s^–1. For areas of shorter offshore distance (< 100 km), surface wind speeds fundamentally conformed to a two-parameter Weibull distribution, but there was a significant difference between wind speed probability distributions and the Weibull distribution in areas more than 100 km offshore. The mean wind speeds and wind speed standard deviations increased with the offshore distance, indicating that with the increase of the wind speed, the pulsation of the winds increased obviously, resulting in an increase in the ratio of the mean wind speed to the standard deviation of wind speed. When the ratio was large, the skewness became negative. When a relatively great degree of dispersion was noted between the observed skewness and the skewness corresponding to the theoretical Weibull curve, the wind speed probability distribution could not be adequately described by a Weibull distribution. This study provides a basis for the verification of the adaptability of Weibull distribution in different sea areas.     

数据驱动下的环境变迁与区域经济成长关联分析

由于经济发展的复杂性,本文旨在探索由环境变迁引发这一动态、复杂而又相互作用的过程,通过引入环境变迁与经济成长两方面因素分析其中的潜在关联性,并将区域稳定性作为环境变迁与经济成长相互作用后的衡量指标,来评估该过程.1）通过使用衡量国家经济健康程度的健康性与复杂性（Fitness and Complexity）算法,获得了新的评估国家经济成长的国家经济健康性系数,该系数能在竞争激烈的动态国际贸易环境下有更好预测GDP的表现.随后建立机器学习模型,成功预测了不同国家的稳定性类别,且预测精度都在90％左右.2）实现了基于数据的环境变迁和区域经济成长的关联性可视化分析,通过分析能够得到潜在关联性结论：一些发展中国家经济稳定性与水资源和二氧化碳排放呈强关联,而发达国家则与人均耕地面积有关联.3）设立评估国家稳定性的新指标,与世界主流指标相比,构建的新指标更注重原始数据的量化,减少了概念抽象的指标对预测性能的影响,且在评估区域经济成长时能更符合当前国际的实际经济情况.本文提出的评估区域稳定性的新排名是完全基于量化指标的,因此更容易实现,说服力更强.通过实际的预测效果分析,该新排名在衡量区域稳定性时弥补了世界主流排名由抽象指标带来的预测失真缺陷,能够满足基本的区域稳定性预测功能,并且能够对预测结果造成影响的主要因素进行解释.