生态红线区管理:英国科研专用区的历史脉络与经验借鉴

作为关键生态保护区域边界线,生态红线划定当前已经上升为中国国家层面战略部署,然而当前生态红线的研究尚处于探索阶段,对于如何针对红线区域具体设计法规保障、制定管理规则、限定开发行为等方面的研究较为匮乏。鉴于英国已经较为成熟的科研专用区相关保护管理的历史经验,梳理和定位了英国科研专用区的3个发展阶段,探讨了各个发展阶段的基本原则、管理机制和实施保障的演变过程,总结英国科研专用区的规划与管理经验,提出了完善法律保障与规程规范、实施统一监管和区域统筹、并行生态补偿与保护自住、签订标准化管理协议、加强公众参与与研讨机制、提升资金保障与使用效率等对我国生态红线区管理与保障的有益借鉴。     

Holocene climate reconstructions from tandem trace-element and stable-isotope composition of ostracodes from Coldwater Lake, North Dakota, U.S.A.

The geochemistry of ostracode shells and bulk carbonates in a 19-meter sediment core documents at century-scale resolution the evolution of water chemistry in Coldwater Lake, North Dakota, providing a continuous paleohydrologic record of Holocene climate change in the northern Great Plains. A combination of ¹⁸O, ¹³C, Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca in ostracode calcite aided by Sr/Ca in bulk carbonates are used to constrain the paleoclimatic reconstructions. A fresh-water phase in the early Holocene, indicated by the absence of Candona rawsoni and low concentrations of Sr/Ca in bulk carbonate, was followed by a sharp increase in salinity between 10800 and 8900 yr B.P. The climate was predominately dry during the late part of the early Holocene and most of the middle Holocene (8900–5000 yr B.P.), when the lake was very sensitive and recorded a series of dry and wet oscillations. Maximum salinity occurred around 5500 yr B.P. and was followed by a gradual decrease between 5000 and 2400 yr B.P. From 2400 yr B.P. the ¹⁸O, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca in the ostracodes indicate generally wet conditions interrupted by a series of lesser salinity and temperature oscillations lasting until 600 yr B.P. Ostracode geochemistry indicates that a warm and dry climate returned at about the time of the Little Ice Age (600–150 yr B.P.). Ostracode ¹³C shows a ong-term increasing trend during the Holocene, which suggests that lake productivity and atmospheric CO₂ exchange made greater contributions to the hypolimnetic carbon pool as the lake became shallower with time.     

中国县域高龄人口地域分异特征及环境成因

以全国分县为基本研究单元,基于2000和2010年人口普查资料,依据高龄化系数将中国不同区域划分为未高龄化、浅度高龄化、中度高龄化和深度高龄化4个类型区,并探讨其空间上的地域分异规律。并选取5个自然环境指标,利用偏最小二乘法（PLS）,对高龄化水平区域差异的环境成因进行定量分析。结果表明：① 全国县域高龄化水平呈现“西疏东密”分布格局;高龄化系数三级阶梯状分布明显,平原、丘陵、盆地普遍高于山地及高原地区;由“凹”字型向“东西隆升、北端塌缩”格局演变。② 高龄人口空间集聚不断增强,区域间差异逐渐增大。③ 水文指数、气候指数是影响全国县域高龄人口集聚的主要因素;地形起伏度、空气质量指数对高龄人口分布影响不显著,对不同类型区影响差异显著;随着时间的推移,植被指数对高龄人口空间分布的影响趋强;社会经济因素对高龄人口分布具有扰动作用。     

A high-performance cellular automata model for urban simulation based on vectorization and parallel computing technology

Cellular automata (CA) models can simulate complex urban systems through simple rules and have become important tools for studying the spatio-temporal evolution of urban land use. However, the multiple and large-volume data layers, massive geospatial processing and complicated algorithms for automatic calibration in the urban CA models require a high level of computational capability. Unfortunately, the limited performance of sequential computation on a single computing unit (i.e. a central processing unit (CPU) or a graphics processing unit (GPU)) and the high cost of parallel design and programming make it difficult to establish a high-performance urban CA model. As a result of its powerful computational ability and scalability, the vectorization paradigm is becoming increasingly important and has received wide attention with regard to this kind of computational problem. This paper presents a high-performance CA model using vectorization and parallel computing technology for the computation-intensive and data-intensive geospatial processing in urban simulation. To transfer the original algorithm to a vectorized algorithm, we define the neighborhood set of the cell space and improve the operation paradigm of neighborhood computation, transition probability calculation, and cell state transition. The experiments undertaken in this study demonstrate that the vectorized algorithm can greatly reduce the computation time, especially in the environment of a vector programming language, and it is possible to parallelize the algorithm as the data volume increases. The execution time for the simulation of 5-m resolution and 3 × 3 neighborhood decreased from 38,220.43 s to 803.36 s with the vectorized algorithm and was further shortened to 476.54 s by dividing the domain into four computing units. The experiments also indicated that the computational efficiency of the vectorized algorithm is closely related to the neighborhood size and configuration, as well as the shape of the research domain. We can conclude that the combination of vectorization and parallel computing technology can provide scalable solutions to significantly improve the applicability of urban CA.     

A MaxEnt Model for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping

Mineral prospectivity mapping is an important preliminary step for mineral resource exploration. It has been widely applied to distinguish areas of high potential to host mineral deposits and to minimize the financial risks associated with decision making in mineral industry. In the present study, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to investigate its potential for mineral prospectivity analysis. A case study from the Nanling tungsten polymetallic metallogenic belt, South China, was used to evaluate its performance. In order to deal with model over-fitting, varying levels of β _j -regularization were set to determine suitable β value based on response curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, as well as via visual inspections of prospectivity maps. The area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.863) suggests good performance of the MaxEnt model under the condition of balancing model complexity and generality. The relative importance of ore-controlling factors and their relationships with known deposits were examined by jackknife analysis and response curves. Prediction–area (P–A) curves were used to determine threshold values for demarcating high probability of tungsten polymetallic deposit occurrence within small exploration area. The final predictive map showed that high favorability zones occupy 14.5% of the study area and contain 85.5% of the known tungsten polymetallic deposits. Our study suggests that the MaxEnt model can be efficiently used to integrate multisource geo-spatial information for mineral prospectivity analysis.     

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Thermal Stratification and Vertical Mixing in a Shallow Fresh Water Lake

Among several influential factors, the geographical position and depth of a lake determine its thermal structure. In temperate zones, shallow lakes show significant differences in thermal stratification compared to deep lakes. Here, the variation in thermal stratification in Lake Taihu, a shallow fresh water lake, is studied systematically. Lake Taihu is a warm polymictic lake whose thermal stratification varies in short cycles of one day to a few days. The thermal stratification in Lake Taihu has shallow depths in the upper region and a large amplitude in the temperature gradient, the maximum of which exceeds 5°C m^–1. The water temperature in the entire layer changes in a relatively consistent manner. Therefore, compared to a deep lake at similar latitude, the thermal stratification in Lake Taihu exhibits small seasonal differences, but the wide variation in the short term becomes important. Shallow polymictic lakes share the characteristic of diurnal mixing. Prominent differences on the duration and frequency of long-lasting thermal stratification are found in these lakes, which may result from the differences of local climate, lake depth, and fetch. A prominent response of thermal stratification to weather conditions is found, being controlled by the stratifying effect of solar radiation and the mixing effect of wind disturbance. Other than the diurnal stratification and convection, the representative responses of thermal stratification to these two factors with contrary effects are also discussed. When solar radiation increases, stronger wind is required to prevent the lake from becoming stratified. A daily average wind speed greater than 6 m s^–1 can maintain the mixed state in Lake Taihu. Moreover, wind-induced convection is detected during thermal stratification. Due to lack of solar radiation, convection occurs more easily in nighttime than in daytime. Convection occurs frequently in fall and winter, whereas long-lasting and stable stratification causes less convection in summer.     

鲁西北连续两次强降水过程对比分析

利用各种观测资料和NCEP/NCAR 1×1°再分析资料,对2012年7月30日夜间和31日夜间鲁西北连续两天强降雨天气进行诊断和对比分析。结果表明:强降水产生在西风槽前和副热带高压边缘的偏南暖湿气流中,西风槽稳定少动,台风在东南沿海北上,副高加强北抬,为鲁西北连续两天的强降水提供了天气尺度背景。925hPa及以下的低层,来自于渤海的偏东气流和来自于华东沿海的东南气流同时向鲁西北强降水区输送水汽,低层比湿大,CAPE和K指数较高。第1次强降水产生在偏南气流的暖区中,降水强度大,维持时间短。第2次强降水期间,低层有冷空气锲入,把暖湿气流抬升,前期为对流性降水,中后期转为稳定性降水,降水强度小,维持时间较长。850hPa及以下倒槽式切变线和中尺度低涡环流是造成强降水的中尺度影响系统,近地面层来自于渤海的东北气流与来自于东南沿海的东南暖湿气流形成中尺度涡旋,产生气旋式辐合上升,触发对流不稳定能量释放。对流云团在鲁西北形成长形的中尺度对流系统(MCS),稳定少动,有明显的列车效应和后向传播特征。强降水具有较强的日变化,夜间发展增强,白天减弱。     

白令海峡治理的合作机制研究

近年来随着北极冰盖的融化,北极通航已成为可能,而白令海峡作为北极航道重要的出口/入口,其战略地位也将逐步显现并被各国关注。在讨论白令海峡的治理与合作时,首先要明确白令海峡是用于国际航行的海峡,而作为海峡沿岸国的美国和俄罗斯对于白令海峡的管控与合作将成为影响未来北极航行的重要因素。为同时保障海峡沿岸国与使用国的利益,可借鉴马六甲海峡的治理经验,在现有治理机制的基础上进一步深化海峡沿岸国与海峡使用国的合作机制。中国作为海峡使用国也有必要积极参与白令海峡的合作治理。     

南京北郊气溶胶中多环芳烃的污染特征及来源解析

利用2010年8月采集的南京北郊气溶胶样品,使用GC-MS对美国环保总局推荐的16种优先控制的多环芳烃含量、分布特征进行了研究。在此基础上,用特征比值法、主因子分析法分析得到南京市北郊大气中PAHs的主要来源为车辆尾气、燃煤、天然气和草木秸秆燃烧,并应用绝对因子分析法进一步定量计算主要源对PAHs的浓度贡献率。结果表明:1)大气颗粒物中16种多环芳烃的平均总质量浓度为135.85 ng/m~3,多环芳烃以4环为主,在可吸入颗粒物中的浓度占总浓度的88.7%;2)PM10中多环芳烃呈双模态分布,在9~10μm的粗模态和0.65~1.10μm的积聚模态上各出现一个峰值;3)天然气等对PAHs的贡献率为5.7%~44.1%,燃煤源的贡献率为20.7%~57.8%,汽车尾气的贡献率为4.6%~46.7%,木材燃烧的贡献率为2.9%~38.1%。本地交通排放和燃料燃烧是南京北郊大气颗粒物中PAHs的主要来源,远距离输送也对南京北郊气溶胶中的PAHs有重要贡献。     

硼酸铝晶须熔块中回收硫酸钾实验

采用硼酸和无水明矾及硫酸钾压块、焙烧、制备硼酸铝熔块。将浸取溶液进行二次蒸发并结晶,硫酸钾回收率大于９５％ ,纯度为９９．９３％ ,表明明矾中硫酸钾能得到充分利用。