Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in FGOALS-g2简

The variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） in the pre-industrial control experiment of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） was investigated using the model outputs with the most stable state in a 512-yr time window from the total 1500-yr period of the experiment. The period of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is double peaked at 20 and 32 years according to the power spectrum, and 22 years according to an auto-correlation analysis, which shows very obvious decadal variability. Like many other coupled climate models, the decadal variability of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is closely related to the convection that occurs in the Labrador Sea region. Deep convection in the Labrador Sea in FGOALS-g2 leads the AMOC maximum by 3-4 years. The contributions of thermal and haline effects to the variability of the convection in three different regions [the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland-Iceland- Norwegian （GIN） Seas] were analyzed for FGOALS-g2. The variability of convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is thermally dominant, while that in the colder GIN Seas can be mainly attributed to salinity changes due to the lower thermal expansion. By comparing the simulation results from FGOALS-g2 and 11 other models, it was found that AMOC variability can be attributed to salinity changes for longer periods （longer than 35 years） and to temperature changes for shorter periods.     

大数据环境下道路场景高时空分辨率众包感知方法EI北大核心CSCD

道路场景作为人类发展演变中最重要、最复杂、最典型的载体之一,是道路基础设施与活动行为共同构成的综合体,链接和构建“人地关系”。道路场景感知从二维抽象简略到三维精细丰富、从静态过去式向动态现在时发展,成为智慧城市、智能交通、无人驾驶的关键技术支撑,是我国新型城镇化战略、交通强国战略的核心技术保障。本文立足于时空交通大数据,提出基于道路场景静态基础设施“形”和动态活动行为“流”的高时空分辨率道路场景感知方法。该方法从静态路网“形”角度,以“点-线-面-体”等要素为研究脉络,构建高精度道路地图众包感知的理论体系;在活动行为“流”感知上,突破传统的点模式分析局限,发展了道路网络空间活动流的时空建模与多尺度分析方法。本文揭示了静态基础设施“形”结构与动态活动行为“流”模式交互作用下的道路场景演化规律,形成以“形”控“流”、借“流”定“形”、“形”“流”叠置的高时空精度道路场景众包感知理论体系,为智慧城市、智能交通的发展提供核心技术与数据支撑。     

集成型与智能型测绘卫星工程发展及其关键技术

航天对地观测已经成为全球对地观测的主要手段。本文简单梳理了国际上现有大地测量类对地观测卫星的概况,侧重分析了我国地形测量类对地观测卫星的贡献和存在的问题,未来对地观测卫星的发展趋势,载荷集成型综合测绘卫星发展的可能性及其面临的主要技术瓶颈。总体认为集成型测绘卫星尽管单星观测效率高,但是整体观测效益不高;分析了微小卫星密集组网型对地观测的可能性及其相应的关键技术,包括载荷模块化设计、卫星小型化设计、卫星最佳组网技术、数据传输技术、卫星在轨弹性调配技术和星上数据快速处理技术等;对未来智能卫星对地观测进行了展望,提出了相应的关键技术,包括星上观测智能识别技术、星间智能传输与星地智能传输技术、星上和地面智能数据处理技术等。此外,卫星的智能避障、运载火箭落点的智能跟踪和智能控制也是航天对地观测需要考虑的发展方向。     

Seasonal variability of oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes in precipitation and cave drip water at Guilin,southwest China

The interpretation of climatic information from stalagmites has traditionally been a complex research problem, with oxygen isotopes playing a particularly important role in global climate change studies. This study investigates the relationship between oxygen isotope composition of the atmospheric in precipitation and cave drip water at Panlong cave in southwest China on seasonal timescales of variability. Time series seasonal variability was derived from Panlong cave in Guilin by collecting daily precipitation samples for stable isotope analysis during 2012. Results indicate that δ¹⁸O of precipitation contains a clear seasonal variation whereby higher values are mainly distributed during winter and lower values during summer. Seasonal variations in water sources affect the precipitation δ¹⁸O values. Drip water δ¹⁸O also displayed a seasonal cycle which is attenuated relative to δ¹⁸O of precipitation. Drip water time series display seasonal cycle ranges from 1.5 to 3.5 ‰ relative to Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water, which mainly follow the precipitation δ¹⁸O seasonal cycle. Seasonal variation in drip water δ¹⁸O supports interpretations of the stalagmite δ¹⁸O record as a paleoclimate proxy sensitive to the local environment. This monitoring experiment revealed that drip water must be transported through the epikarst in approximately 1.5 months during cold periods, and <0.5 months during warm periods. Different residence time percolation is mainly affected by the atmospheric precipitation amount, depending on whether soil moisture reaches saturation.     

Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China

With the increasing exposure of populations and economy to natural hazards, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall remain a key subject of study. Based on annual maximum rainfall (AM) and peaks over threshold rainfall series at 30 meteorological stations during 1960–2011 in the Huai River Basin (HRB), spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall are analyzed through regional frequency analysis method using L-moments. The accuracy and uncertainty analysis of quantile estimations are also carried out, and the regional and at-site frequency analyses are compared. Results indicate the following: (1) During 1960–2011, AM precipitation at 20 stations in the HRB shows an increasing trend, while at the other 10 stations, it shows a decreasing trend. And both the increased and decreased trends are not significant. (2) The HRB can be categorized into three homogeneous regions via cluster analysis. For both at-site and regional frequency analyses, the root mean square error values increase with the increase in return periods. The estimations are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years. The quantile estimates of large return period from regional frequency analysis are more accurate and have smaller uncertainty than those from at-site frequency analysis. (3) Extreme precipitation in the HRB concentrates in the upstream of the Huai River and YiShuSi water system in the east of the HRB. Generally, the area with extreme precipitation, especially the upper reaches of the Huai River and Yimeng Mountain areas, also has large standard variations of extreme precipitation, which will increase the risk of natural hazards.     

黔西地区煤层埋深与地应力对其渗透性控制机制

基于黔西六盘水煤田和织纳煤田16口井36层次的试井资料, 采用地质统计分析等方法, 探讨了黔西地区煤储层渗透性的展布规律与地应力特征, 论证了煤层埋深与地应力对其渗透性的控制机制.研究表明, 研究区煤储层以特低渗-低渗透率储层(＜0.1×10-9m2)为主, 中渗透率储层(0.1×10-9~1.0×10-9m2)也占有相当大比例; 应力场类型在浅部表现为大地动力场型, 一定深度可能转化为准静水压力状态.煤储层渗透率及其埋深的负幂指数关系较为离散, 但在不同深度渗透率转折点与地应力场类型转变一致; 单井煤储层试井渗透率差异较大, 随地应力增大和埋深增加而降低, 平面展布受地应力强度控制由SW-NE具"低-高-低"发育规律.埋深对渗透率的控制实质是地应力的控制, 区域构造位置及其所处高应力场作用下的煤体形变与破碎致使孔裂隙压缩或闭合是该区渗透性差异的主要控制机制.      

柴北缘牦牛山地区牦牛山组沉积相组合特征

柴达木盆地北缘牦牛山地区出露的牦牛山组是一套由冲积扇和扇三角洲相共同构成的陆相沉积组合,冲积扇相砾岩-粗砂岩组合主要分布于研究区SE侧,扇三角洲相砂岩-泥岩组合主要分布于研究区NW侧。古水流分析表明牦牛山组沉积物主要来自其SE侧古隆起,但后期扇三角洲相包含少量来自NW和NE向的沉积物。该套沉积组合序列特征与区域上分布在牦牛山西侧同时期形成的湖泊相、滨浅海相沉积共同表明,柴达木盆地北缘在晚志留-早泥盆世时期存在一NW向倾斜的古斜坡,且晚期北侧发生抬升。砾岩和砂岩碎屑组成与区域岩石组合类型对比表明,牦牛山组沉积碎屑物主要来自于滩间山群。沉积组合序列特征、碎屑组成和区域构造背景综合研究表明,牦牛山组可能为柴达木板块向北俯冲过程中形成的局部断陷盆地的充填物。     

微波消解—冷原子荧光光谱法测定植物样品中的汞

为了简化测量植物中汞含量的方法,提高灵敏度及结果的可信度,实验采用微波消解植物样品的办法,使样品经氯化亚锡还原,再用冷原子荧光测定出植物样品中汞的含量。确定了消解样品的方法和微波消解样品的条件,优化了仪器的最佳工作参数。方法检出限0.30×10-9(稀释因子100倍),精密度(n=12)在2.09%~6.05%,加标回收率94.1%~105.5%,方法经生物国家一级标准物质验证方法准确可靠。     

顾及空间尺度效应的城市土地利用变化精细化模拟

城市土地利用变化模拟是优化土地资源配置的科学依据,提高其精细化程度和可靠性有助于准确把握城市用地发展趋势,对城市土地资源精准调控具有重要意义。基于宏观遥感分类的土地利用变化模拟,难以在街区尺度上揭示城市用地社会功能变化及精细化模拟中空间尺度效应来源和作用机理。本文联合遥感影像和POI数据识别出城市土地利用精细化特征,运用响应面法率定土地利用精细化模拟的最优空间尺度组合,在此基础上,利用CA-Markov模型开展了未来土地利用变化的精细化模拟。以武汉市中心城区为应用案例,研究结果表明：基于POI 的城市土地利用精细化识别方法,可以深度解析城市建设用地的社会功能,极大改善了传统基于遥感的土地覆被宏观解译效果;研究区土地利用变化元胞自动机精细化模拟的最优空间尺度组合是30 m元胞、7×7邻域以及冯诺依曼邻域类型,采用最优空间尺度组合能够提高土地利用变化精细化模拟的可靠性。响应面试验设计结果可有效识别精细化模拟过程中空间尺度效应的主要来源,并区分其对模拟精度的影响程度与正负效应;预计到2025年,研究区建设用地范围将继续向周边扩张,各类型用地之间互为交织,土地利用空间格局将呈更加破碎化趋势。