新疆铜矿类型与找矿靶区

在分析研究新疆铜矿类型、地质特征、矿区地质构造及找铜潜力的基础上，对进一步的找铜靶区进行了初步预测．新疆铜矿工作程度总体较低，各构造成矿区和类型都有找铜前景，最具潜力和最有希望找到大型铜矿床的是阿尔泰，东、西天山和西昆仑地区斑岩型、海相火山沉积型、斑岩—夕卡岩复合型、海相沉积热液叠加型与铜镍矿化物型的成矿类型．     

层序地层学研究及隐蔽油气藏预测--以南阳凹陷古近系为例

高精度层序地层学已被证明是寻找隐蔽圈闭行之有效的理论方法．运用该理论对南阳凹陷进行了研究，对地震剖面中反射界面的追踪，在古近系中识别出了各级别的层序界面，结合周缘露头、钻井、测井等资料，分析了主要目的层序内体系域的构成及高频单元变化规律，建立了层序地层模式，在此基础上预测南部陡崖式断坡带和北部缓坡式弯折带是低位域砂体和隐蔽岩性油气藏形成的有利区带．     

玛尼7.9级地震对昆仑山口西8.1级地震的触发作用及动力背景初探

根据库仑静应力变化的概念，对青藏块体中部地区1997年11月8日玛尼7．9级地震及2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8．1级地震的应力触发作用进行了初步研究。不同震源机制解计算结果表明，玛尼地震造成了昆仑地震断层面上10^-3MPa量级的库仑应力增量，该变化仅使得昆仑地震的发生提前了最长10年左右，表明当前地壳应变能水平可能并不很低。对照20世纪初以来全球7级以上强震频度和强度演化特征与地球自转变化的关系，认为地球自转幅度衰减、变化频率升高是近期强震活动的重要控制因素。昆仑山口西8．1级地震的发生，可能是地球自转持续加速阶段后期，青藏块体内部区域应力场逐渐强化，及玛尼地震应力触发的结果。     

实现数据库管理震源参数的探索

就如何利用数据库，结合Java、XML等手段对震源参数管理进行了一些探索，并给出了一些在一个实际系统中实现了的例子。     

天津地区井水位年变异常研究

近年来 ,中国地震预报学者开始关注井水位的年变异常及其中短期预测意义问题 ,但井水位年变异常判别采用动态图像的定性对比方法 ,表现出一定的随意性。针对这种现状 ,文中引进概率论与数理统计中的随机过程理论与时间序列分析技术 (盛骤等 ,1989) ,提出了“井水位动态年周期法”与“相对时段速率比较法” ,解决了井水位年变异常的定量识别方法 ,并应用到天津井网 2 1口井的观测数据 (1985年以来 )分析中 ,证明了该方法的可行性与有效性。分析结果表明 ,天津井网中有 7口井在首都圈邻区 4次中强 (MS≥ 5 .8)地震之前 ,表现出 17井次的井水位年变异常 ,且多在震前 1.5～6个月内出现 ,从而再次证明了井水位年变异常具有一定的中短期预测意义     

Scaling effects on modeled surface energy-balance components using the NOAH-OSU land surface model

As surface exchange processes are highly non-linear and heterogeneous in space and time, it is important to know the appropriate scale for the reasonable prediction of these exchange processes. For example, the explicit representation of surface variability has been vital in predicting mesoscale weather events such as late-afternoon thunderstorms initiated by latent heat exchanges in mid-latitude regions of the continental United States. This study was undertaken to examine the effects of different spatial scales of input data on modeled fluxes, so as to better understand the resolution needed for accurate modeling. A statistical procedure was followed to select two cells from the Southern Great Plains 1997 hydrology experiment region, each 20 km×20 km, representing the most homogeneous and the most heterogeneous surface conditions (based on soil and vegetation) within the study region. The NOAH-OSU (Oregon State University) Land Surface Model (LSM) was employed to estimate surface energy fluxes. Three scales of study (200 m, 2 and 20 km) were considered in order to investigate the impacts of the aggregation of input data, especially soil and vegetation inputs, on the model output. Model results of net radiation and latent, sensible and ground heat fluxes were compared for the three scales. For the heterogeneous area, the model output at the 20-km resolution showed some differences when compared with the 200-m and 2-km resolutions. This was more pronounced in latent heat (12% decrease), sensible heat (22% increase), and ground heat flux (44% increase) estimation than in net radiation. The scaling effects were much less for the relatively homogeneous land area with 5% increase in sensible heat and 4% decrease in ground heat flux estimation. All of the model outputs for the 2- and 20-km resolutions were in close agreement. The results suggested that, for this study region, soils and vegetation input resolution of about 2 km should be chosen for realistic modeling of surface exchange processes. This resolution was sufficient to capture the effects of sub-grid scale heterogeneity, while avoiding the data and computational difficulties associated with higher spatial resolutions.     

Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong—moderate earthquake activity within and near China（August,2002～September,2002）

Illustration All the data in this catalog are chosen from the (Preliminary Seismological Report of Chinese Seismic Stations( “Its abbreviation is "Monthly Report"). The catalog includes the events of M≥4.7 in and near China and M≥6 all over the world. The "Monthly Report" is monthly compiled by the Ninth Section of Institute of Geophysics, CSB.     

Extracting flow structures from tracer data

A method of visualizing structures in closed chaotic flows out of homogenous particle distributions is presented in the example of models of a meandering jet. To this end, the system will be leaked or opened up by defining a region of the flow, so that a particle is considered to be escaped if it leaves this region. By applying this method to an ensemble of nonescaped tracers, we are able to characterize mixing processes by visualizing the converging and stretching filamentations (stable and unstable manifolds) in the flow without using additional mathematical tools. The possibility of applying the algorithm to analyze buoy data, and a comparison with the finite time manifolds are discussed.     

Study of Triggering Action Between the Mani （Ms7.9） and the West Kunlun Mountains Pass （ Ms 8.1 ） Great Earthquakes and Their Dynamic Background

Based on Coulomb static stress variation, the stress trigging action of the Mani ( Ms7.9, Nov.1997) earthquake on the West Kuulun Mountains Pass (MsS.1, Nov. 2001 ) earthquake is researched. Results of different source mechanism resolutions show that a 10_3 MPa Coulomb stress due to the Mani earthquake was added to the fracture fault of the Kunlun earthquake, and this may shift the broken date to about 10 years earlier, and infer that the stress level in the crust is not low. Comparing the relationship between strong earthquake strength and frequency and earth rotation change, it is shown that the strength‘s decrease and the variation period‘ s shortening of earth rotation are important controlling factors on strong earthquake activity. This great event with Ms = 8.1 took place probably due to a gradual strengthening background of regional stress field within the Qinghai-Xizang block in the period of acceleration of change of day‘s length and stress triggering from the Mani earthquake.