Ultrastructure and dispersal potential of sponge larvae: tufted versus evenly ciliated parenchymellae

In this work we analyse the ultrastructure and behaviour of two representative types of parenchymella sponge larvae: the evenly ciliated larva of Scopalina lophyropoda , and the tufted larva of Cacospongia mollior . We sought to find correlates of the dispersal abilities and distribution patterns of these species. Laboratory experiments were performed under two different conditions of water movement (still water and a slight oscillatory movement), and at different times of the larval life-span. Larvae of S. lophyropoda were motionless most of the time, maintaining a vertical posture and rotating on their main axis, and they did not respond to directional light. Larvae of C. mollior were active swimmers that responded negatively to light stimuli. In both cases, movement decreased as the larval age increased. Ultrastructurally, C. mollior larvae were more compact, with more reserves and abundant collagen bundles. Desmosome-like structures were seen connecting the apical parts of the ciliated surface in both species. Two different types of putative light-sensitive structures were found. Both structural and behavioural characteristics favour a greater dispersal capability for C. mollior and a philopatric dispersal mode for S. lophyropoda . These predictions are in agreement with the observed ecological distribution of the species.     

Changes in European temperature extremes can be predicted from changes in PDF central statistics

Although uncertainties are still large, many potentially dangerous effects have already been identified concerning the impacts of global warming on human societies. For example, the record-breaking 2003 summer heat wave in Europe has given a glimpse of possible future European climate conditions. Here we use an ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe to show that frequency, length and intensity changes in warm and cold temperature extremes can be derived to a close approximation from the knowledge of changes in three central statistics, the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the Probability Distribution Function, for which current climate models are better suited. In particular, the effect of the skewness parameter appears to be crucial, especially in the case of cold extremes, since it mostly explains the relative warming of these events compared to the whole distribution. An application of this finding is that the future impacts of extreme heat waves and cold spells on non-climatological variables (e.g., mortality) can be estimated to a first-order approximation from observed time series of daily temperature transformed in order to account for simulated changes in these three statistics.     

确定数值预报模式中扩散系数的一个客观方法

当数值预报模式的分辨率得到提高时,模式中扩散系数的数值大小必然随之改变。通常情况下,一方面,扩散系数的数值应足够大（即有下限值）,以便过滤掉模式中不想要的小尺度噪音;另一方面,扩散系数的数值应尽量小（即有上限值）,以免出现计算不稳定。本文提出一种确定高分辨率模式中扩散系数数值大小的客观方法,即＂双试验＂（twin experiment）同化方法（初始低分辨率模式的预报结果作为＂观测资料＂,新的高分辨率模式作为同化模式）,从而通过伴随变分同化方法来确定控制变量（即扩散系数）的数值大小。本文采用一维浅水模式测试和描述上述试验方案。通过低分辨率模式预报结果和高分辨率模式预报结果的比较（高、低分辨率模式预报结果的比较在低分辨率模式格点上进行）,采用最小二乘法可客观求得适用于高分辨率模式的扩散系数的＂最优＂值。数值试验结果表明,采用这种方法得到的高分辨率模式的扩散系数,不仅能过滤掉模式中不想要的小尺度噪音,而且能够避免出现计算不稳定。研究还指出,当扩散系数的大小略微超过其上限值时（这种情况在极小化迭代中有可能会出现）,计算不稳定的出现将使目标函数的数值迅速增加,并导致极小化程序收敛的失败;时间步长的减小（约20%）可以显著地改进目标函数的条件数,从而可避免极小化程序收敛的失败。     

Nonparametric Geostatistical Simulation of Subsurface Facies: Tools for Validating the Reproduction of,and Uncertainty in,Facies Geometry

Delineation of facies in the subsurface and quantification of uncertainty in their boundaries are significant steps in mineral resource evaluation and reservoir modeling, which impact downstream analyses of a mining or petroleum project. This paper investigates the ability of nonparametric geostatistical simulation algorithms (sequential indicator, single normal equation and filter-based simulation) to construct realizations that reproduce some expected statistical and spatial features, namely facies proportions, boundary regularity, contact relationships and spatial correlation structure, as well as the expected fluctuations of these features across the realizations. The investigation is held through a synthetic case study and a real case study, in which a pluri-Gaussian model is considered as the reference for comparing the simulation results. Sequential indicator simulation and single normal equation simulation based on over-restricted neighborhood implementations yield the poorest results, followed by filter-based simulation, whereas single normal equation simulation with a large neighborhood implementation provides results that are closest to the reference pluri-Gaussian model. However, some biases and inaccurate fluctuations in the realization statistics (facies proportions, indicator direct and cross-variograms) still arise, which can be explained by the use of a single finite-size training image to construct the realizations.

     

Late Quaternary climatic changes in southern Chile, as recorded in a diatom sequence of Lago Puyehue (40°40′ S)

A late Quaternary diatom stratigraphy of Lago Puyehue (40°40′ S, 72°28′ W) was examined in order to infer past limnological and climatic changes in the South-Chilean Lake District. The diatom assemblages were well preserved in a 1,122 cm long, ¹⁴C-dated sediment core spanning the last 17,900 years, and were in support of an early deglaciation of Lago Puyehue. The presence of a short cold spell in South Chile, equivalent to the Younger Dryas event in the Northern Hemisphere, the Antarctic Cold Reversal in Antarctica, or the Huelmo-Mascardi event in southern South America, was not clearly evidenced in the diatom data, although some climate instability may have occurred between 13,400 and 11,700 cal. yr. BP, and a relatively long period (between 16,850 and 12,810 cal. yr. BP) with low absolute abundances and biovolumes could be tentatively interpreted as a period of low rainfall and/or temperatures. An increase in the moisture supply to the lake was tentatively inferred at 12,810 cal. yr. BP. After 9,550 cal. yr. BP, inferred stronger and longer persisting summer stratification, may have been the result of the higher temperatures associated with an early-Holocene thermal optimum. The mid-Holocene appeared to be characterized by a decrease in precipitation, culminating around 5,000 cal. yr. BP, and rising again after 3,000 cal. yr. BP, likely associated with a previously documented lowered frequency and amplitude of El Niño events. An increase in precipitation during the late Holocene (3,000 cal. yr. BP–present) might have marked subsequent increased frequency of El Niño occurrences, leading to drier summers and slightly moister winters in the area.     

Differential biomagnification of PCB, PBDE, Hg and Radiocesium in the food web of the European hake from the NW Mediterranean

Consumption of marine organisms represents one of the main exposure sources of contaminants for human populations. To obtain a global view of the contamination in commercial fish in the NW Mediterranean Sea, we analysed four types of priority contaminants (PCBs, PBDEs, Hg and (137)Cs) in the European hake, Merluccius merluccius, from the Gulf of Lions in relation with organism's trophic level (δ(15)N). All contaminants presented a significant increase in concentration in hake muscle with trophic level. However, obvious differences between contaminants were evidenced. Biomagnification factors (BMF and FWMF) along the hake food web were higher for Hg and CB-153 than for BDE-47 and (137)Cs, and increase in contaminant concentration with trophic level occurred at different rates depending on contaminants. Such differences of biomagnification patterns can be related to physico-chemical properties of the different contaminants.     

Biomonitoring of coastal areas in Tunisia: Stable isotope and trace element analysis in the Yellow-legged Gull

We used Yellow-legged Gull (YLG) chicks to monitor trace elements in Tunisian areas subject to different pollution stresses: urban contamination (Chikly), industrial pollution (Thyna) and an unpolluted area (Kneis).We measured trace element concentrations (Hg, Se and Pb) in chick feathers. We also assessed their feeding ecology by analyzing both regurgitates and stable isotopes (SIA) in chick feathers and in their prey, to determine the main entry route of pollutants. SIA revealed that YLG feed mainly on aquatic resources from the Lake of Tunis (Chikly colony) and the Gulf of Gabès (Thyna and Kneis colonies). Moreover, the enriched δ¹⁵N found in feathers from Chikly are attributed to the eutrophication of the Lake of Tunis. Hg and Se were higher in Kneis and Thyna colonies, in agreement with the higher consumption of marine resources and the greater availability of these elements resulting from the impact of the industrial activity in the area. Pb concentrations were higher in Chikly, related to the heavier traffic around the Lake of Tunis and the use of leaded gasoline.     

Simplified nonlinear modeling of river flow routing

Management of open-channel flow systems requires accurate models of flow transfer. This article presents a simple nonlinear model representative of the flow transfer in a river reach. The model is obtained through linearization of a physical model, simplification using the cumulant matching method and analytic identification of a nonlinear model coinciding with the linear model around equilibrium points, corresponding to the hydraulic permanent regimes. The methodology is illustrated on the diffusive wave equation and the Saint-Venant equations. The obtained nonlinear models are compared in simulation to the initial models. The nonlinear model is shown to ensure mass conservation, despite the variable delay element of the model. The proposed model can reproduce the nonlinear behavior of the time-delay with discharge variations. It is well-suited for fast simulations, flow forecasting, and for controller design.     

A comparative application of different EC8-3 procedures for the seismic safety assessment of existing structures

An application of the EC8-3 procedure for safety assessment is presented herein. Besides testing the applicability of the code procedure, this application aims to assess the consistency of the safety assessment results that are obtained. Based on the application of the EC8-3 procedure, the study assesses if the different methods of analysis that are permitted lead to similar safety results and identifies the factors that may affect these results. Furthermore, the results obtained by the EC8-3 procedure are complemented by a probabilistic approach yielding their corresponding fragility values. By comparing the D/C ratios and the probabilistic results, the application aims to determine if similar D/C ratios lead to similar probabilistic results. Furthermore, the application tries to determine if a correlation can be established between the D/C ratios and the expected fragility values.     

On a continuous spectral algorithm for simulating non-stationary Gaussian random fields

This paper presents an algorithm for simulating Gaussian random fields with zero mean and non-stationary covariance functions. The simulated field is obtained as a weighted sum of cosine waves with random frequencies and random phases, with weights that depend on the location-specific spectral density associated with the target non-stationary covariance. The applicability and accuracy of the algorithm are illustrated through synthetic examples, in which scalar and vector random fields with non-stationary Gaussian, exponential, Matérn or compactly-supported covariance models are simulated.