On Some Consistency Conditions for Geostatistical Change-of-Support Models

This work deals with a family of geostatistical models used in application fields concerned with a change of support, such as mineral resources evaluation and polluted soil management. Three models are examined: the discrete Gaussian, Hermitian and Laguerrian models, which rely on a transformation of the variable of interest (mineral grade or pollutant concentration) defined on point and block supports into variables with Gaussian or gamma univariate distributions and isofactorial bivariate distributions. The focus is given to the relationships between the transformed variables at both supports, and to the conditions that these relationships imply on the model parameters. Additionally, guidelines are given for improving the variogram analysis of the transformed variables and for validating the change-of-support model.     

Determination of EC50 Values for Cu,Zn, and Cr on Microorganisms Activity in a Mediterranean Sandy Soil

Ecotoxicity of three potentially toxic metals (PTM) (Cu, Zn, and Cr) in a slightly acidic sandy soil is tested using the soil respiration test (OECD‐217) in order to determine EC₅₀ values for the carbon transformation activity of microorganisms. Addition of an organic amendment of Populus leaves is also crossed with metal spiking in order to investigate possible interaction with metal toxicity. Soil respiration is measured at day 1 and 28 after the soil spiking with the PTM to assess short‐term effects on soil microbial activity. Of the three metals tested, Cu shows the highest toxicity at the longest exposure times (day 28) and Zn shows a strong inhibitory effect in the short‐term (day 1), even though later toxicity diminish significantly. Cr is the least toxic studied PTM. Organic amendment outweighs any adverse effects of these metals, increasing soil respiration, even in the treatments with high doses of metals.     

Geoid,Pangea and convection

We show that the present geoid has a simple low-order configuration with an axis of symmetry in the equatorial plane. We show further that it is a “tennis-ball” pattern, with an equatorial high belt and a polar low one, which is clearly controlled by the rotation of the Earth. Finally, we show that the outline of Pangea between at least 200 Ma and 125 Ma ago lay along a great circle passing through the paleo-poles of rotation. Thus, it also had an axis of symmetry in the equatorial plane. This hemispheric super-continent configuration ended in Middle Cretaceous time during a major geologic catastrophe which was accompanied by high rates of spreading, hotspot outbreaks and high sea-level stands. We interpret this evidence in terms of separate steady state lower mantle convection, responsible for the present geoid, weakly coupled to the upper mantle one. This weak coupling leads to the hemispheric continent configuration which ends when excessive heating of the upper mantle due to the insulating continental cap leads to continent dispersal. The complete cycle, from one supercontinent to the next, might be of the order of 400 Ma.     

Wildfire effects on extractable elements in ash from a Pinus pinaster forest in Portugal

The aim of this work is to study the effects of a wildfire on water‐extractable elements in ash from a Pinus pinaster forest located in Portugal. The pH, electrical conductivity (EC), calcium (Ca²⁺), magnesium (Mg²⁺), sodium (Na⁺), potassium (K⁺), sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR), aluminium (Al³⁺), manganese (Mn²⁺), iron (Fe²⁺), zinc (Zn²⁺), sulphur (S), silica (Si) and phosphorous (P) were analysed in ash sampled from a sloped area burned in a wildfire and from litter from a contiguous unburned area, with similar morphological conditions. The results showed that ash leachates had higher pH and EC, and were significantly richer in water‐extractable Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, SPAR, S and Si and significantly poorer in water‐extractable Al³⁺, Fe²⁺, Mn²⁺ and Zn²⁺ than litter solutions. No significant differences were observed in water‐extractable P. The fire changed the ash solute chemistry compared with the unburned litter and increased the sample variability of nutrient distribution with potential implications for plant recovery. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distributed approximation of open-channel flow routing accounting for backwater effects

In this article, we propose a new model, called LBLR for Linear Backwater Lag-and-Route, which approximates the Saint-Venant equations linearized around a non-uniform flow in a finite channel (with a downstream boundary condition). A classical frequency approach is used to build the distributed Saint-Venant transfer function providing the discharge at any point in the channel in the Laplace domain with respect to the upstream discharge. The moment matching method is used to match a second-order-with-delay model on the theoretical distributed Saint-Venant transfer function. Model parameters are then expressed analytically as functions of the pool characteristics. The proposed model efficiently accounts for the effects of downstream boundary condition on the channel dynamics.     

Point-to-point connectivity,an abstract concept or a key issue for risk assessment studies?

Connectivity of high/low-permeability areas has been recognized to significantly impact groundwater flow and solute transport. The task of defining a rigorous quantitative measure of connectivity for continuous variables has failed so far, and thus there exist a suite of connectivity indicators which are dependent on the specific hydrodynamic processes and the interpretation method. Amongst the many existing indicators, we concentrate on those characterizing connectivity between the points involved in a hydraulic or tracer test. The flow connectivity indicator used here is based on the time elapsed for hydraulic response in a pumping test (e.g., the storage coefficient estimated by the Cooper–Jacob method, S_est). Regarding transport, we select the estimated porosity from the breakthrough curve (_est). According to Knudby and Carrera [Knudby C, Carrera J. On the relationship between indicators of geostatistical, flow and transport connectivity. Adv Water Resour 2005;28(4):405–21] these two indicators measure connectivity differently, and are poorly correlated. Here, we use perturbation theory to analytically investigate the intrinsic relationship between S_est and _est. We find that _est can be expressed as a weighted line integral along the particle trajectory involving two parameters: the transmissivity point values, T, and the estimated values of S_est along the particle path. The weighting function is linear with the distance from the pumping well, thus the influence of the weighting function is maximum at the injection area, whereas the hydraulic information close to the pumping well becomes redundant (null weight). The relative importance of these two factors is explored using numerical simulations in a given synthetic aquifer and tested against intermediate-scale laboratory tracer experiments. We conclude that the degree of connectivity between two points of an aquifer (point-to-point connectivity) is a key issue for risk assessment studies aimed at predicting the travel time of a potential contaminant.     

How is collapse risk of RC buildings affected by the angle of seismic incidence?

Despite the undeniable influence of the angle of seismic incidence on seismic demand, limited research has been performed to determine its effect when assessing the probabilistic seismic performance of a structure. Since the ground motion group size has a well-known significant effect on the variability of collapse risk, the joint effect of both the ground motion group size and the angle of seismic incidence on the estimation of collapse risk is investigated. Results show that the two variables have a different effect on the collapse risk estimates, with one affecting the bias in the expected value of the estimates and the other their variability. In order to ensure acceptable levels of variability and bias, practical proposals are made regarding the minimum number of records and angles of seismic incidence that should be considered.     

Real-time Uncertain Geological Boundaries Updating for Improved Block Model Quality Control Based on Blast Hole Data: A Case Study for Golgohar Iron Ore Mine in Southeastern Iran

One main problem in the modeling of mineral deposits is to design a block model that divides the deposit into homogeneous subdomains. The spatial uncertainty in the geological boundaries becomes a critical factor prior to the modeling of the ore properties. For this reason, reducing the uncertainty of geological models leads to an improved mineral resource evaluation. This research work addresses the problem of updating the geological models by using actual online-sensor measurement data. A novel algorithm is provided, which integrates the discrete wavelet transform to the Ensemble Kalman Filter for assimilating online-sensor production data into geological models. The geological realizations in each time step are transformed to frequency coefficients and, after each assimilation step, the updated realizations are back-transformed to the original categorical distribution. Furthermore, a reconciliation process is performed to compare the online-sensor data derived from the production blocks and the updated realizations in each time step. The algorithm is illustrated through an application to the Golgohar iron deposit located in SW of Sirjan, Iran, and proves to reproduce the statistical parameters and connectivity values of the primary geological realizations.

     

Seabird aggregative patterns: A new tool for offshore wind energy risk assessment

The emerging development of offshore wind energy has raised public concern over its impact on seabird communities. There is a need for an adequate methodology to determine its potential impacts on seabirds. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are mostly relying on a succession of plain density maps without integrated interpretation of seabird spatio-temporal variability. Using Taylor’s power law coupled with mixed effect models, the spatio-temporal variability of species’ distributions can be synthesized in a measure of the aggregation levels of individuals over time and space. Applying the method to a seabird aerial survey in the Ebro Delta, NW Mediterranean Sea, we were able to make an explicit distinction between transitional and feeding areas to define and map the potential impacts of an offshore wind farm project. We use the Ebro Delta study case to discuss the advantages of potential impacts maps over density maps, as well as to illustrate how these potential impact maps can be applied to inform on concern levels, optimal EIA design and monitoring in the assessment of local offshore wind energy projects.