Treatment of ground-motion predictive relationships for the reference seismic hazard map of Italy

In the framework of the 2004 reference seismic hazard map of Italy the amplitude of the strong-motion (expressed in terms of Peak Horizontal Acceleration with 10% probability of non-exceedence in 50 years, referred to average hard ground conditions) was computed using different predictive relationships. Equations derived in Italy and in Europe from strong-motion data, as well as a set of weak and strong-motion based empirical predictive relationships were employed in a logic tree procedure, in order to capture the epistemic uncertainty affecting ground-motion attenuation. This article describes the adjustments and conversions required to eliminate the incompatibilities amongst the relations. Particularly significant are distance conversions and style-of-faulting adjustments, as well as the problems related to the use of regional relations, such as the selection of a reference depth, the quantification of random variability and the strong-motion prediction. Moreover, a regional attenuation relationship specific for volcanic areas was also employed, allowing a more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard, as confirmed by the attenuation of macroseismic intensities.     

Characteristics of the low energy seismicity of central Apulia (southern Italy) and hazard implications

The central part of the Apulia region, in southern Italy, has been generally considered practically free from significant level of seismicity, but historical documentation, geological indicators and recent instrumental observations suggest that the activity of local minor tectonic structures could have been masked (and partly also induced) by that of major seismogenic structures located in the neighbouring regions. A revision of the central Apulia seismicity characteristics was conducted considering its space and time distribution, energy release rate and focal mechanisms, in view of possible hazard implications. To better constrain the seismicity rates inferable from the set of available historical data, special attention was paid to the declustering of a catalogue of low energy events (magnitude < 3.5) instrumentally detected in about 20 years: a new declustering procedure, useful for cases like to the one at hand, was purposely devised taking into account the peculiarity of local seismicity characteristics and the limitations of the available database. The results obtained by combining instrumental and historical data show that this area is affected by a rather sporadic seismicity, likely associated to a general tensional regime and possibly stimulated by the interaction with Apenninic and northern Apulia seismogenic activity. Even though less energetic, the local seismicity contributes to increase the moderately damaging shaking probability due to the activity of seismic sources located in the near areas, so to justify the adoption of at least a minimum level of caution in relation to the local definition of seismic protection measures.     

NMR Measurements in Carbonate Rocks: Problems and an Approach to a Solution

Carbonate rocks are well known for their complex petrophysical behavior where, in contrast to siliciclastic rocks, different parameters, including porosity and permeability, usually are not directly related. This behavior is the result of thorough reorganization of porosity during diagenesis, and it turns prediction of reservoir quality of carbonate rocks into a challenge. The study presented here deals with the problem of utilizing NMR techniques in prediction of petrophysical properties in carbonates.We employ a visual porosity classification as a priori knowledge for better interpreting NMR data for prediction purposes. This allows for choice of suitable T₂ cutoff values to differentiate movable from bound fluids adapted for the specific carbonate rock, thus resulting in better interpretation of NMR data. The approach of using a genetic pore type classification for adapting the conventional method for T₂ cutoff determination, which originally was developed for siliciclastic rocks, is promising. Similarly, for permeability determination on the basis of NMR measurements, the classification of carbonate rocks based on porosity types also shows potential. The approach implemented here has the promise to provide a basis of standardized interpretation of NMR data from carbonate rocks.Acknowledgment We are grateful to Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, for permission to publish the results of this work. This study was part of I.S.s Masters Thesis at Hannover University that was carried out in collaboration with Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, Germany. We appreciate comments of an anonymous referee and PAGEOPH editor Brian J. Mitchell.     

Three-Dimensional Electromagnetic Modelling and Inversion from Theory to Application

The whole subject of three-dimensional (3-D) electromagnetic (EM) modelling and inversion has experienced a tremendous progress in the last decade. Accordingly there is an increased need for reviewing the recent, and not so recent, achievements in the field. In the first part of this review paper I consider the finite-difference, finite-element and integral equation approaches that are presently applied for the rigorous numerical solution of fully 3-D EM forward problems. I mention the merits and drawbacks of these approaches, and focus on the most essential aspects of numerical implementations, such as preconditioning and solving the resulting systems of linear equations. I refer to some of the most advanced, state-of-the-art, solvers that are today available for such important geophysical applications as induction logging, airborne and controlled-source EM, magnetotellurics, and global induction studies. Then, in the second part of the paper, I review some of the methods that are commonly used to solve 3-D EM inverse problems and analyse current implementations of the methods available. In particular, I also address the important aspects of nonlinear Newton-type optimisation techniques and computation of gradients and sensitivities associated with these problems.     

Nonlinear Dynamic Response of HDRB and Hybrid HDRB-Friction Sliders Base Isolation Systems

The isolation systems are usually made of rubber bearings that are sometimes coupled in hybrid combination with frictional devices; this is the case of an in-site experimental campaign, performed on a base isolated apartment building in Rapolla (south of Italy). Several dropout tests at initial displacements up to 17cm allowed to obtain in-site information on the true dynamic response of the isolation system (building and isolators). The tests carried out allow a comparison between the free vibration responses of a building, isolated by using a 28 HDRB isolation system only, or an HDRB-Friction Sliders Hybrid one. The paper highlights the main differences of the response in the superstructure (the structure over the isolation system) obtained by using only HDRB isolation system, or the Hybrid one (HDRB and Friction Sliders in parallel system). Analysis and comparisons of experimental data, show the influence of nonlinearities on structural higher modes amplification, especially observed by using the higher nonlinear Hybrid isolation system. Tests results confirm that, in the case of a regular superstructure, like the Rapolla building, the isolation system nonlinearities influence the structural response.     

Periodic Behavior and Stochastic Fluctuations of Solar Activity: Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Analysis

We use the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to investigate the spatiotemporal features of the solar activity. Daily observation in the period 1949–1996 of the green coronal emission line at 530.3 nm are used as indicators of the activity behavior. We show that few POD modes suffice in describing both the space and time main periodicities. In particular, being affected by a strongly energetic stochastic behavior, daily data are described by five POD modes, while two POD modes are enough to describe the butterfly diagram in monthly averaged data. Apart from the basic period T₀ = 11 years, using daily data we found evidences for intercycle temporal periodicities.     

A Maunder Minimum Scenario Based on Cross-Hemispheric Coupling and Intermittency

A novel scenario for Maunder minimum-like grand minima epochs of reduced solar activity is proposed, based on diffusive coupling between both solar hemispheres, each susceptible to stochastically-driven intermittent behavior. After introducing cross-hemispheric coupling into a well-validated reduced model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism for poloidal field regeneration, simulations are presented demonstrating that even weak coupling can lead to a high degree of synchronicity between the two hemispheres. This is in qualitative agreement with the similar onset and recovery times of sunspot activity at and around the Maunder minimum. Moreover, even weak coupling manages to greatly reduce the frequency and duration of quiescent episodes, again in qualitative agreement with the relative paucity of grand minima in the sunspot and radioisotope records.     

Two Unusual Episodes of ≈13-Day Variations II. Implications for the Solar Radio Flux Density, <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>10.7 cm</Subscript>

Additional analysis of the behavior of the international sunspot number (R) series and the solar radio flux density (F_{10.7 cm}) series during two long (250–500 days) and distinct episodes of persistent ≈13-day variations (Crane, Solar Phys. 1998, 253, 177) is reported. The conclusion is that while the center-to-limb behavior of R does not change between solar minimum and solar maximum, F_{10.7 cm} exhibits significantly less limb brightening at solar maximum than at solar minimum.     

Predicting the Arrival Time of Shock Passages at Earth

The purpose of this parametric study is to predict the arrival time at Earth of shocks due to disturbances observed on the Sun. A 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation code is used to simulate the evolution of these disturbances as they propagate out to 1 AU. The model in Han, Wu and Dryer (1988) uses solar data for input at 0.08 AU (18 solar radii). The initial shock speed (ISS) is assumed to be constant from the corona to 0.08 AU. We investigate how variations of this ISS affect the arrival times of the shock at Earth. This basic parametric study, however, does not consider inhomogeneous background solar wind structures such as corotating interaction regions and their precursor stream–stream interactions, nor interplanetary manifestations of complex coronal mass ejecta such as magnetic clouds. In the latter case, only their associated shocks are considered. Because the ambient (pre-existing background) solar wind speed is known to affect the shock arrival time at 1 AU, we also simulated events with various background solar wind speeds (BSWS) to investigate this effect. The results show that the shock arrival time at Earth depends on the BSWS, the speed of solar disturbances, their size, and their source location at the Sun. However, it is found that for a sufficiently large momentum input, the shock arrival time at Earth is not significantly affected by the pre-existing solar wind speed.