Discussion on the feature of strong earthquake: Orderly distribution in time, space and intensity before the Western Kunlun Mountain Pass M=8.1 earthquake

Introduction The Western Kunlun Mountain Pass M=8.1 earthquake occurred on November 14, 2001 is the other M=8 earthquake occurred 50 years after Dangxiong, Tibet M=8.0 earthquake in Chinese mainland. The earthquake has caused the attention of the seismologists in the following aspects: 1) The fracture length is more than 400 km, which is far away from the estimated length by the statistic empirical function between the magnitude and the fracture length (WANG, et al, 2002); 2) The aftersh…     

Regularized Bayesian estimation for GEV-B-splines model

Large observed datasets are not stationary and/or depend on covariates, especially, in the case of extreme hydrometeorological variables. This causes the difficulty in estimation, using classical hydrological frequency analysis. A number of non-stationary models have been developed using linear or quadratic polynomial functions or B-splines functions to estimate the relationship between parameters and covariates. In this article, we propose regularised generalized extreme value model with B-splines (GEV-B-splines models) in a Bayesian framework to estimate quantiles. Regularisation is based on penalty and aims to favour parsimonious model especially in the case of large dimension space. Penalties are introduced in a Bayesian framework and the corresponding priors are detailed. Five penalties are considered and the corresponding priors are developed for comparison purpose as: Least absolute shrinkage and selection (Lasso and Ridge) and smoothing clipped absolute deviations (SCAD) methods (SCAD1, SCAD2 and SCAD3). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been developed for each model to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. Those approaches are tested and illustrated using simulated data with different sample sizes. A first simulation was made on polynomial B-splines functions in order to choose the most efficient model in terms of relative mean biais (RMB) and the relative mean-error (RME) criteria. A second simulation was performed with the SCAD1 penalty for sinusoidal dependence to illustrate the flexibility of the proposed approach. Results show clearly that the regularized approaches leads to a significant reduction of the bias and the mean square error, especially for small sample sizes (n < 100). A case study has been considered to model annual peak flows at Fort-Kent catchment with the total annual precipitations as covariates. The conditional quantile curves were given for the regularized and the maximum likelihood methods.     

Emplacement mechanisms of the South Kona slide complex,Hawaii Island: sampling and observations by remotely operated vehicle Kaiko

Emplacement of a giant submarine slide complex, offshore of South Kona, Hawaii Island, was investigated in 2001 by visual observation and in-situ sampling on the bench scarp and a megablock, during two dives utilizing the Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) Kaiko and its mother ship R/V Kairei. Topography of the bench scarp and megablocks were defined in 3-D perspective, using high-resolution digital bathymetric data acquired during the cruise. Compositions of 34 rock samples provide constraints on the landslide source regions and emplacement mechanisms. The bench scarp consists mainly of highly fractured, vesiculated, and oxidized aa lavas that slumped from the subaerial flank of ancestral Mauna Loa. The megablock contains three units: block facies, matrix facies, and draped sediment. The block facies contains hyaloclastite interbedded with massive lava, which slid from the shallow submarine flank of ancestral Mauna Loa, as indicated by glassy groundmass of the hyaloclastite, low oxidation state, and low sulfur content. The matrix facies, which directly overlies the block facies and is similar to a lahar deposit, is thought to have been deposited from the water column immediately after the South Kona slide event. The draped sediment is a thin high-density turbidite layer that may be a distal facies of the Alika-2 debris-avalanche deposit; its composition overlaps with rocks from subaerial Mauna Loa. The deposits generated by the South Kona slide vary from debris avalanche deposit to turbidite. Spatial distribution of the deposits is consistent with deposits related to large landslides adjacent to other Hawaiian volcanoes and the Canary Islands.     

对香山群时代的商榷

分布于宁夏中部的香山群划分为1~4个未命名的亚群,第一亚群中的薄层灰岩所含的三叶虫Holocephalites punctatus Zhou,Olenoides ningxiacus Zhou,Peronopsis ovalis Zhou组合时代为中寒武世,牙形石Furnishina asymmetrica Müller,F.furnishi Müller为晚寒武世,指示第一亚群的时代为中—晚寒武世。牙形石Cordylodus proavus Müller和Oistodiform分子在第二亚群的发现表明这个亚群的时代最可能属于晚寒武世—早奥陶世。然而,整个香山群的精确时代仍不能完全确定,因为它的第三亚群和第四亚群不是化石稀缺就是不含化石。     

华北陆块晋冀Al- Fe- Au- Pb- Zn- Ag- Cu- 煤成矿带主要地质成矿特征及潜力分析

华北陆块晋冀成矿带是我国重要的金属和能源矿产资源基地,近年来新的找矿进展和预测成果不断涌现,使之成为我国重点找矿地区之一,需要对其开展系统的成矿区划和部署研究工作。本文以新的研究成果和找矿突破为基础,通过综合分析,在该地区划分新的重要成矿部署区带,厘定边界并将其命名为"华北陆块晋冀Al-Fe-Au-Pb-Zn-Ag-Cu-煤成矿带"。结合区域成矿地质背景的综合研究,在区内划分了10个成矿亚带,初步建立了Al-Fe-Au-Pb-Zn-Ag-Cu-煤成矿带成矿谱系,其成矿作用具有多期次发育和多系统控制的特点,在时间演化上表现为多旋回性、继承性、新生性和叠加性特点,主要成矿期有前寒武纪,寒武纪-晚二叠世,晚三叠世-晚白垩世和新生代,其中晚侏罗-早白垩世是内生金属矿床成矿大爆发期。该带产出的矿床类型复杂多样,与岩浆有关成矿作用有岩浆岩型、斑岩型、矽卡岩型、海(陆)相火山岩型、岩浆热液型和石英脉型,变质成矿作用有沉积变质型、绿岩建造型,层控成因矿床有碳酸盐岩中热液型,沉积成矿作用有海(陆)相沉积型、砂矿型、风化壳型矿床等。结合区域找矿进展和潜力评价最新成果,认为本区铝土矿、铁、金、锰、钼、铜、铅锌、煤矿潜力巨大,为下一步勘查部署的主攻矿种,同时在本区划分了26个重点远景区,对研究区下一步矿产勘查部署工作有一定指导意义。     

大渡河丹巴水电站长大深埋软岩各向异性及宏观力学参数研究

研究了层状岩体各向异性以及宏观力学参数分析方法,提出基于大型岩土分析软件ADINA各向异性材料模块,采用分区分级宏观力学参数模拟分析方法,结合“代表单元体”理论思想,对丹巴水电站二云片岩进行了各向异性模拟和宏观力学参数分析,研究得到丹巴片岩不同片理倾角宏观力学参数以及各向异性特征变化规律。研究结果显示,丹巴二云片岩尺度增加,平行片理向、垂直片理向变形模量 、 收敛幅度不同步, 变化幅度随倾角增大而增大,收敛速率更高,水平向变形模量 趋势较平缓,泊松比的变化规律恰好与之相反;随片理面倾角增大,丹巴二云片岩力学参数趋于极限值规律明显。     

莱州湾沉积有机碳储量及海洋健康评估

海洋沉积碳储量在全球碳循环中发挥着重要作用,而海湾作为海洋的重要组成部分,近几十年来由于受人类活动影响有机碳循环发生了明显变化,对碳储备能力的响应同样不可忽视,但却鲜有报道。研究区域位于莱州湾(37°~38°N,118.9°~120.3°E),是渤海三大海湾之一。利用39个表层沉积物和其6根沉积箱式柱状样(站位为6154、6174、6184、6194、7211和7214,柱长在17~39cm之间)对海湾有机碳储量进行评估。同时,通过计算海洋健康指数(OHI)十个目标之一的碳储(carbon storage)来评估海洋健康状况。结果表明,莱州湾表层沉积物1cm的有机碳储量平均为0.3t/ha,在研究区域的中部、东部和北部偏高,莱州湾东南部、区域西北部以及黄河口处有机碳储量偏低。莱州湾0~20cm有机碳储量为20.6t/ha,低于我国表层土壤0~20cm有机碳储量29.7t/ha以及浙江、云南、海南和重庆等省市。莱州湾碳储(carbon storage)得分为37,远低于中国平均值51以及世界平均水平75。

     

基于元素Mn、Co、Cd、Mo的海相沉积岩有机质 富集因素判别指标在四川盆地北缘的应用

基于金属元素Mn、Co、Cd、Mo的海洋富有机质沉积岩沉积环境和有机质富集主控因素判别指标Al—Co·Mn和Co·Mn—Cd/Mo,能够有效地区分促进有机碳埋藏的两种海洋端元沉积环境:大陆边缘开放/上升洋流环境和滞留的边缘海盆环境。利用这种方法研究了四川盆地北缘城口县月亮坪剖面五峰组和龙马溪组页岩沉积时期的水体环境和有机质富集的主控因素。研究表明五峰组Mn、Co富集程度低,Mo富集程度自下而上明显增大;龙马溪组Mn整体亏损,Co富集程度低,Mo富集程度自下而上明显减小。Al—Co·Mn方法的使用发现滞留环境主要出现在五峰组早期和龙马溪组晚期,以及观音桥段附近,而五峰组中晚期和龙马溪组早—中期水体主要处于开放/上升洋流区。剖面[w(Co)/(μg/g)]·[w(Mn)/(%)]值均小于平均页岩值1.615;五峰组Cd/Mo值整体大于正常海水值0.006,全部小于平均页岩值0.308,龙马溪组整体小于正常海水值。Co·Mn—Cd/Mo联合图版的使用发现月亮坪剖面五峰组和龙马溪组有机质富集主要受到保存条件控制,与使用U/Th、V/Cr、P/Ti、Ba/Al与TOC相关性分析得出的结论一致。基于金属元素Mn、Co、Cd、Mo的判别指标对于判断古生代大陆边缘地区富有机质页岩沉积环境及有机质富集主控因素有较好的效果。     

桂西北南丹-荔波地区中、新生代构造演化:来自古构造应力场的证据

桂西北南丹-荔波地区是我国重要的锡多金属矿床富集地,近年来油气勘探显示该区亦具有极大的海相页岩气成藏潜力。因此,深入探讨和认识该区中、新生代构造应力场特征及其构造演化是成矿规律研究和页岩气勘探过程中不可或缺的重要环节。本文以南丹-荔波地区广泛发育的褶皱、共轭节理和断层为研究对象,在详细野外观测的基础上,利用叠加褶皱、共轭节理分析以及断层滑动矢量等方法,反演了研究区中、新生代构造应力场变化。构造解析表明,该区中、新生代共经历了四期构造应力场的交替和演化,分别为NNE-SSW 向挤压、NW-SE 向挤压、NEE-SWW 向伸展和近E-W 向挤压。结合区域构造演化特征,推测NNE-SSW 向挤压应力场的形成可能与印支期华南大陆南北边缘与印支/华北板块碰撞闭合有关;NW-SE 向挤压应力场和NEE-SWW 向伸展应力场可能分别对应于燕山早期古太平洋板块向华南大陆之下的俯冲消减以及燕山晚期发生的弧后伸展作用;近E-W 向挤压应力场可能形成于喜山期印度?欧亚板块陆陆碰撞所产生远程效应的构造背景之下。