利用综合评分方法评估CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟能力

北极海冰冰盖自20世纪以来经历了前所未有的缩减,这使得北极海冰异常对大气环流的反馈作用日益显现。尽管目前的气候模式模拟北极海冰均为减少的趋势,但各模式间仍然存在较大的分散性。为了评估模式对于北极海冰变化及其气候效应的模拟能力,我们将海冰线性趋势和年际异常两者结合起来构造了一种合理的衡量指标。我们还强调巴伦支与卡拉海的重要性,因为前人研究证明此区域海冰异常是近年来影响大尺度大气环流变异的关键因子。根据我们设定的标准,CMIP5模式对海冰的模拟可被归为三种类型。这三组多模式集合平均之间存在巨大的差异,验证了这种分组方法的合理性。此外,我们还进一步探讨了造成模式海冰模拟能力差别的潜在物理因子。结果表明模式所采用的臭氧资料集对海冰模拟能力有显著的影响。     

Instantaneous Shorelines as an Intermediate for Island Shoreline Mapping based on Aerial/Satellite Stereo Images

Island shoreline mapping based on field measurements by collecting visually discernible features is costly and even unrealistic to be implemented in practice because of the nonuniqueness, fuzziness, and ambiguity of shoreline features. The MHHW (the mean higher high water) shoreline, i.e., the intersection of the coastal profile with the MHHW, is recommended to be chosen as a significant shoreline indicator of an island. An approach for mapping the MHHW shoreline using the aerial/satellite stereo images is proposed. In the proposed procedure, first, the height difference between the instantaneous shoreline and the MHHW shoreline is calculated by the ocean tide model; then the orthometric/normal height of the instantaneous shoreline is determined from the stereo images; last, the instantaneous shoreline is used as an intermediate for determination of the height of the MHHW shoreline. The proposed procedure is applied to the MiaoZiHu Island located in the East China Sea. Preliminary experimental result shows that in ideal cases, the horizontal positional accuracy of the extracted shoreline can reach 0.2 m from aerial images of 0.1 m resolution.     

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and its carbon isotopic composition in sediment pore waters from the Shenhu area,northern South China Sea

The Shenhu area is one of the most favorable places for the occurrence of gas hydrates in the northern continental slope of the South China Sea. Pore water samples were collected in two piston cores (SH-A and SH-B) from this area, and the concentrations of sulfate and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and its carbon isotopic composition were measured. The data revealed large DIC variations and very negative δ ¹³C-DIC values. Two reaction zones, 0–3 mbsf and below 3 mbsf, are identified in the sediment system. At site SH-A, the upper zone (0–3 mbsf) shows relatively constant sulfate and DIC concentrations and δ ¹³C-DIC values, possibly due to bioturbation and fluid advection. The lower zone (below 3 mbsf) displays good linear gradients for sulfate and DIC concentrations, and δ ¹³C-DIC values. At site SH-B, both zones show linear gradients, but the decreasing gradients for δ ¹³C-DIC and SO₄ ²⁻ in the lower zone below 3 mbsf are greater than those from the upper zone, 0–3 mbsf. The calculated sulfate-methane interface (SMI) depths of the two cores are 10.0 m and 11.1 m, respectively. The depth profiles of both DIC and δ ¹³C-DIC showed similar characteristics as those in other gas hydrate locations in the world oceans, such as the Blake Ridge. Overall, our results indicate an anaerobic methane oxidation (AMO) process in the sediments with large methane flux from depth in the studied area, which might be linked to the formation of gas hydrates in this area.     

Nonlinear influences on ocean waves observed by X-band radar

The purpose of this study is to discuss the influence of signal nonlinearity upon X-band radar observations. A method for estimating the degree of nonlinearity by bispectral analysis was applied and discussed. We found that bispectral analyses from spatial radar backscatter series are similar to results obtained from water level time series. In addition, the average nonlinear degree from radar backscatter is related to wind speed. The accuracy of wave observations derived by consideration of the nonlinear effect from radar backscatter was also investigated. The estimated error in wave height from the radar data is also related to the degree of nonlinearity. In order to improve accuracy, the modulation transfer function method was applied in order to eliminate the influence of nonlinearity.     

CICE5.0与BCC_CSM2.0模式的耦合及对北极海冰的模拟评估

本文将美国Los Alamos国家实验室发展的最新海冰模式CICE5.0引入国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM2.0,替代原有的海冰模式SIS,形成一个新的耦合模式。在此基础上,评估新耦合模式对1985-2009年北极海冰的模拟性能,检验引入CICE5.0后对耦合模式中北极海冰、海洋和大气模拟结果的改进。结果表明,引入CICE5.0后,模式能较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布、季节以及年际变化特征。相比于旧版本耦合模式,新耦合模式模拟的北极多年冰增多、一年冰减少,同时,海冰增厚、海冰流速减慢,模拟效果得到显著改进,对波弗特涡流模拟的改善尤为明显。进一步分析发现,相比于SIS,CICE5.0对北极海冰特别是海冰厚度模拟性能的提升,在耦合进入BCC_CSM2.0后,会触发冰-温的正反馈机制,改进了模式对海平面气压场、表层气温和海表温度的模拟,由此进一步提高了模式对北极海冰的模拟能力。     

热带太平洋海平面低频变化

本文选取ECMWF ORAS4再分析数据对1959-2015年热带太平洋海平面的低频变化进行了分析。热带太平洋海平面年际变化第一模态反映了ENSO爆发阶段的海平面变化,热带东、西太平洋变化反相,其时间序列与Niño3.4指数高度相关。海平面第二模态则体现了El Niño爆发前后热带太平洋暖水的输运过程。El Niño爆发前热带西太平洋暖水聚集的位置,以及爆发后暖水向赤道外输运的位置在两类El Niño事件中均有所不同。此外,ENSO的周期在近半个世纪发生了显著的年代际变化,这一变化与热带太平洋的年代际变化有关。热带太平洋的年代际变化对海平面趋势变化也有着显著的影响。卫星高度计观测到的近20年海平面的快速上升（下降）正是由20世纪90年代后热带太平洋频繁的位相转换引起的。     

珠江黄茅海河口洪季侧向余环流与泥沙输移

2012年洪季对珠江黄茅海河口湾侧向动力结构与泥沙输移过程进行了系统观测,采用动量平衡和泥沙通量机制分解等方法,分析了河口流、温盐和泥沙侧向分布特征以及泥沙输移过程,探讨了侧向动量平衡与泥沙输移机制。洪季黄茅海河口存在明显的侧向流,西滩和北槽均形成表层向东、底层向西的两层侧向流,拦门沙滩顶呈现表、底层向西、中层向东的三层侧向流,而拦门沙前缘侧向流整体向西。河口湾纵向净泥沙通量表现为北槽向海、西滩向陆,拦门沙滩顶及其前缘均向海;侧向净泥沙通量表现为滩顶及其前缘均向西,西滩向东、北槽向西。这种侧向泥沙辐聚过程是高浓度悬沙聚集于滩槽界面的重要原因,向陆净通量是西滩回淤的重要原因。滩槽间侧向余环流动量平衡主要是侧向斜压梯度力、科氏力和侧向平流作用。欧拉平流输运在侧向泥沙输运中起主要作用,潮泵效应也起重要作用。     

Vertical dynamic impedance of pile considering the dynamic stress diffusion effect of pile end soil

A new analytical model is presented to analyze the dynamic stress diffusion effect of pile end soil on the vertical dynamic impedance of the pile. The surrounding soil of the pile is modeled by using the plane strain model and the pile is simulated by using one-dimensional elastic theory. Finite soil layers below the pile end are modeled as conical fictitious soil pile with stress diffusion angle which reflects the dynamic stress diffusion effect of pile end soil. By means of the Laplace transform and impedance function transfer method, the analytical solution of the vertical dynamic impedance at the pile head in frequency domain is yielded. Then, a comparison with other models is performed to verify the conical fictitious soil pile model. Finally, based on the proposed solution, the selected numerical results are compared to analyze the influence of dynamic stress diffusion effect for different design parameters of the soil-pile system on the vertical dynamic impedance at the pile head.     

A study on one-dimensional consolidation of layered structured aquitard soils in a leakage system

Analytical solutions expressed using the hydraulic head for the one-dimensional consolidation of layered structured aquitard soils in a leakage system are deduced by transforming the n-layered structured soils into n + i (i = 1,2,…, n)-layered soils with gradually changing thicknesses, therein considering the behaviors of structured aquitard soils. The solutions are given in the case of instantaneous and linear decreasing confined aquifer water levels. By comparing three different examples, the effects of the structured behaviors on the consolidation characteristics are analyzed for the instantaneous decline of the confined aquifer water level.