Individual risk evaluation for landslides: key details

Risk-taking is an essential part of life. As individuals, we evaluate risks intuitively and often subconsciously by comparing the perceived risks with expected benefits. We do this so commonly that it passes unnoticed, like when we decide to speed home from work or go for a swim. The comparison changes, however, when one entity (such as a government) imposes a risk evaluation on another person. For example, in a quantitative risk management framework, the estimated risk is compared with a tolerable risk threshold to decide if the person is ‘safe enough’. Landslide risk management methods are well established and there is consensus on tolerable life-loss risk thresholds. However, beneath this consensus lie several key details that are explored by this article, along with suggestions for refinement. Specifically, we suggest using the risk unit, micromort (one micromort equals a life loss risk of 1 in 1 million), in describing risk estimates and thresholds, to improve risk communication. For risk estimation, we provide guidance for defining and combining landslide scenarios and for recognizing where unquantified risk from low-probability/high-consequence scenarios ought to inform risk management decisions. For risk tolerance thresholds, we highlight the pitfalls of selecting unachievably low thresholds and suggest that there is no single universal threshold. Additionally, we argue that gross disproportion between costs and benefits of further risk reduction, which is integral to the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle, is a commonly unachievable and counter-productive condition for risk tolerance, and other conditions centered on proportionality often apply. Finally, we provide several figures that can be used as risk communication tools, to provide context for risk estimates and risk tolerance thresholds when these values are reported to decision makers and the public.

     

Everest's thinning glaciers: implications for tourism and mountaineering

Glacier mass loss in the Everest region of Nepal is accelerating in response to a warming climate, which is a trend observed across the central and eastern Himalaya. Thinning glaciers and the development of supraglacial (surface) ponds and large glacial lakes will increasingly restrict access to glacier surfaces and will affect popular trekking routes and mountaineering activities in the region. Through quantifying glacier accessibility and supraglacial pond expansion, we estimate that the Kongma La Pass trail across the Khumbu Glacier is likely to be impassable by 2020 due to supraglacial pond expansion and glacier thinning, and will require significant re‐routing. An estimated 197 649 227 m³ of ice melted over the period 1984–2015 on the Khumbu Glacier. Additionally, expert opinion from Everest mountaineers suggest that rockfall activity is likely to increase in the high‐mountain environment as snow and ice melts from mountain slopes, requiring changes to climbing routes on the world's highest peaks. Similarly, route difficulty will be affected by changing monsoon precipitation patterns, which determines windows of opportunity for ascents, and the distribution and quantity of snowfall. We conclude that increased collaboration between the scientific, local, and mountaineering communities offers mutual benefits for data collection and dissemination, and we identify key areas that should be investigated further.     

Letšeng diamond mine,Lesotho: a variant of Kimberley-type pyroclastic kimberlite emplacement

The Letšeng Diamond Mine comprises two ~91 Ma kimberlite pipes. An update of the geology is presented based on the 2012–2017 detailed investigation of open pit exposures and all available drillcores which included mapping, logging and petrography. Each of the steep-sided volcanic pipes comprises a number of phases of kimberlite with contrasting diamond contents which were formed by the emplacement of at least four batches of mantle-derived magma. The resulting range of textures includes resedimented volcaniclastic kimberlite (RVK), Kimberley-type pyroclastic kimberlite (KPK), coherent kimberlite (CK) and minor amounts of hypabyssal kimberlite (HK). The pipes are compared with KPK occurrences from southern Africa and worldwide. Many features of the Letšeng pipes are similar to KPK infilled pipes particularly those of the widespread Cretaceous kimberlite province of southern Africa. The differences displayed at Letšeng compared to other large KPK pipe infills described from around the world are attributed to the marginal or melnoitic nature of the magma and the upper diatreme to crater setting of the Letšeng pipes, where processes become extrusive. It is concluded that the pipes comprise a variant of Kimberley-type pyroclastic kimberlite emplacement. The classification of many of the Letšeng rocks as KPK is important for developing the internal geology of the pipes as well as for predicting the distribution of diamonds within the bodies.

     

A Palaeoenvironmental Investigation of Two Prehistoric Burnt Mound Sites in Northern Ireland

This paper provides a summary of the palaeoenvironmental evidence from a spread of late Mesolithic burnt material and two late Neolithic to early Bronze Age burnt mounds. The burnt mounds were up to 10 m diameter, had an amorphous shape, and were consistently less than 0.8 m thick. Monoliths were collected from two sites, Ballygawley and Roughan, in Co. Tyrone, Northern Ireland. This provided an opportunity to use a detailed palaeoecological approach for the first time to investigate the use and function of burnt mounds. Pollen, non‐pollen palynomorphs, micro‐ and macroscopic charcoal were used to place these features within their environmental context, and to establish if such an approach could provide further insights into their function. The palynological results shared similar characteristics: high microscopic charcoal values, repetitive fluctuations in tree and shrub taxa, increased Sphagnum, and the presence of non‐pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) HdV‐114 and HdV‐146, all of which could be diagnostic indicators of burnt mounds in palynological records. While the data do not allow us to ascribe a specific function for the burnt mounds, their environmental setting is discussed. A “see‐saw” pattern of arboreal pollen, combined with the macroscopic charcoal data, indicate possible species selection and management of local woodland for fuelwood.     

Bayesian spatial modeling of Lavaca Bay pollutants

Locational risk of increased mercury and PAH concentrations in Lavaca Bay, Texas sediments and eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) harvested from Lavaca Bay, Texas were analysed. Chemical analysis results were evaluated utilizing Bayesian geo-statistical methods for comparison of the model fit of a random effects model versus a convoluted model which included both random and spatial effects. For those results fit best with the convoluted model, continuous surface maps of predicted parameter values were created. Sediment and oyster concentrations of mercury and the majority of measured PAHs were fit best with the convoluted model. The locational risks of encountering elevated concentrations of these pollutants in Lavaca Bay sediments and oysters were highest in close proximity to industrial facilities.     

An experimental test of whether bar instability contributes to the formation,periodicity and maintenance of pool–riffle sequences

Pool–riffle sequences (PRSs) are periodic river‐bed morphologies with wavelengths several times the channel width. Causes of PRS formation and maintenance are not clearly understood, which may limit the effectiveness of protection and rehabilitation measures. Some confusion has existed about whether the PRS morphology is the same as or distinct from alternate bars. In this paper we investigate whether the bar instability forming alternate bars also contributes to PRS formation, periodicity and maintenance. This was unclear because bar instability occurs only when the ratio of channel width/depth exceeds a critical value, generally understood to be approximately 10, which is larger than the width‐to‐depth ratio of many PRSs. A mobile‐bed physical model is used to test whether bar instability occurs in channels characteristic of PRS morphology, with low width‐to‐depth ratio, and high relative roughness. The physical model was scaled from a prototype PRS in a gravel and cobble bed river. Alternate bars formed in the model at channel width‐to‐depth ratios as low as 3·8. The wavelength of the alternate bars formed was generally 2·2–5 times channel width, which was similar to the prototype PRS. Therefore, bar instability can occur in virtually all PRSs, and it contributes to the widespread formation of periodic PRS morphology. The model showed that maintenance of the bar height in the prototype PRS also depends on variations in channel width. It is concluded that periodic PRSs are formed and maintained by the interaction between bar instability, and flow deflections associated with variations in channel geometry such as width variation. Resonance between bar instability and three‐dimensional bed forms such as alternate bars and variations in channel geometry. Variations in channel geometry are also important in determining the location and dimensions of individual pools and bars. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural and anthropogenic nitrogen uptake by bloom-forming macroalgae

The frequency and duration of macroalgal blooms have increased in many coastal waters over the past several decades. We used field surveys and laboratory culturing experiments to examine the nitrogen content and delta(15)N values of Ulva and Gracilaria, two bloom-forming algal genera in Narragansett Bay, RI (USA). The northern end of this bay is densely populated with large sewage treatment plant nitrogen inputs; the southern end is more lightly populated and opens to the Atlantic Ocean. Field-collected Ulva varied in delta(15)N among sites, but with two exceptions had delta(15)N above 10 per thousand, reflecting a significant component of heavy anthropogenic N. This variation was not correlated with a north-south gradient. Both Ulva and Gracilaria cultured in water from across Narragansett Bay also had high signals (delta(15)N= approximately 14-17 per thousand and 8-12 per thousand, respectively). These results indicate that inputs of anthropogenic N can have far-reaching impacts throughout estuaries.