Exports and Growth: Learning from the Case of Southern U.S. Metropolitan Areas

The relationship between exports and economic growth is a paradigmatic element of modern economic growth policy, despite the absence of strong evidence of a connection. Until recently, data on export production prevented an extensive empirical analysis of metropolitan-scale trade. This article examines the export growth dynamics across large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) within the southern United States, a region that has been impacted by economic globalization. These analyses found that some Southern metropolitan areas differ from regional and national averages in selected measures of export performance. Additionally, the export performance of Southern cities was not correlated with all indicators of economic development. This article concludes that export dynamics should be viewed increasingly from an urban frame, with particular emphasis on the production of globally consumed knowledge products and advanced manufacturing. Moreover, export policy should be directed toward the individual strengths of urban regions.     

The nonlinear spin-up of a stratified ocean

Abstract

The adjustment of a nonlinear, quasigeostrophic, stratified ocean to an impulsively applied wind stress is investigated under the assumption that barotropic advection of vortex tube length is the most important nonlinearity. The present study complements the steady state theories which have recently appeared, and extends earlier, dissipationless, linear models.

In terms of Sverdrup transport, the equation for baroclinic evolution is a forced advection-diffusion equation. Solutions of this equation subject to a “tilted disk” Ekman divergence are obtained analytically for the case of no diffusion and numerically otherwise. The similarity between the present equation and that of a forced barotropic fluid with bottom topography is shown.

Barotropic flow, which is assumed to mature instantly, can reverse the tendency for westward propagation, and thus produce regions of closed geostrophic contours. Inside these regions, dissipation, or equivalently the eddy field, plays a central role. We assume that eddy mixing effects a lateral, down-gradient diffusion of potential vorticity; hence, within the closed geostrophic contours, our model approaches a state of uniform potential vorticity. The solutions also extend the steady-state theories, which require weak diffusion, by demonstrating that homogenization occurs for moderately strong diffusion.

The evoiution of potential vorticity and the thermocline are examined, and it is shown that the adjustment time of the model is governed by dissipation, rather than baroclinic wave propagation as in linear theories. If dissipation is weak, spin-up of a nonlinear ocean may take several times that predicted by linear models, which agrees with analyses of eddy-resolving general circulation models. The inclusion of a western boundary current may accelerate this process, although dissipation will still play a central role.     

Open-ocean response and normal mode excitation in an eddy-resolving general circulation model

Abstract

Analysis of a two-layer, flat-bottom, steady-wind driven, eddy-resolving general circulation model reveals a distinct separation in frequency of baroclinic and barotropic motion in the region distant from the model Gulf Stream. The far-field motions at periods less (greater) than about 100 days are predominantly barotropic (baroclinic), unlike the near-field, eddy-generating, free-jet region which contains barotropic and baroclinic energy throughout the modei frequency range. The far-field barotropic energy produces a peak in the model sea-level spectra between 25 and 50 days with a magnitude comparable to energy levels observed in spectra of sea level from oceanic island tide gauges. The far-field barotropic motion is clearly composed of large-scale, resonant, barotropic normal modes drive by mesoscale activity of the turbulent, free-jet region. Oceanic mesoscale turbulence may therefore provide for planetary normal modes an excitation mechanism distinct from atmospheric forcing. The open-ocean, barotropic, model response is very similar to that of a fluctuating-wind driven model, which suggests that atmospheric and intrinsic forcing of mid-ocean eddies may be of comparable importance.     

Energy spectra associated with long's model for steady finite-amplitude flow over orography

Abstract

The process of wave steepening in Long's model of steady, two-dimensional stably stratified flow over orography is examined. Under conditions of the long-wave approximation, and constant values of the background static stability and basic flow, Long's equation is cast into the form of a nonlinear advection equation. Spectral properties of this latter equation, which could be useful for the interpretation of data analyses under mountain wave conditions, are presented. The principal features, that apply at the onset of convective instability (density constant with height), are:

i) a power spectrum for available potential energy that exhibits a minus eight-thirds decay, in terms of the vertical wavenumber k _z ^-;

ii) a rate of energy transfer across the spectrum that is inversely proportional to the wavenumber for large k _z ^-;

iii) an equipartition between the kinetic energy of the horizontal motion and the available potential energy, under the longwave approximation, although all the disturbance energy is kinetic at the point where convective instability is initiated. It is also shown that features i) and ii) apply to more general conditions that are appropriate to Long's model, not just the long-wave approximation. Application to fully turbulent flow or to conditions at the onset of shearing instability are not considered to be warranted, since the development only applies to conditions at the onset of convective instability.     

Changes in growing season in the Northeastern United States

ABSTRACT

Changes in growing season length (GSL) are of concern for agricultural, phenological, economic, epidemiological, and bioclimatological reasons. This research identifies spatial and temporal changes over the last several decades in GSL, along with the day-of-year of the last spring freeze and first autumn freeze, for the northeastern United States – a region particularly susceptible to such changes due to the large population and intense economic activities. Results suggest that growing season has significantly increased in length since 1980 as compared to prior to 1980, and both spatial and temporal variation in GSL has decreased for the region over time. Changes to GSL for this region are driven more by a shift in the first autumn freeze date than the last spring freeze date. The areas of greatest increase in GSL in the pre- vs. post-1980 period tend to be in the high elevations, near large water bodies, and near the largest cities. Results will assist environmental planners as they prepare mitigation and adaptation strategies amid a changing environment.     

Magnetic characterisation and correlation of a Younger Dryas tephra in North Atlantic marine sediments

A technique for identifying non‐visible basaltic tephra‐rich horizons of Younger Dryas (YD)/Greenland Stadial (GS) 1 age in northeast Atlantic sediments using rapid, non‐destructive magnetic measurements is presented. Three high‐resolution marine sediment cores have been studied in an E–W transect across the Hebridean margin: St Kilda Basin (MD95‐2007), Barra Fan (MD95‐2006) and Rockall Trough (MD04‐2822). Magnetic susceptibilities and remanent magnetisations were measured at contiguous 1 cm resolution on bulk sediments. In all three cores, an interval with higher proportions of hard magnetic minerals coincides with a clearly defined peak in basaltic tephra shard (>250 µm) counts, which can be constrained to the early part of the YD/GS1 based on faunal climate proxies. Electron microprobe analyses of the magnetically distinct basaltic tephra interval, in all three cores, displays the same major element geochemistry as published for the Vedde basaltic (I Tab. 1), i.e. sourced from the Icelandic volcano Katla. The identification of transitional alkalic basaltic tephras within marine sediments could potentially be facilitated by magnetic analysis as a useful chronostratigraphic screening tool. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wind‐driven depth‐averaged circulation in Queen Charlotte Sound and Hecate Strait

Abstract

We develop a wind‐driven depth‐averaged model of the circulation on the continental shelf around the Queen Charlotte Islands. The model captures a major feature of the winter current‐meter observations: a flow in Moresby Trough against the direction of the prevailing winds. Moresby Trough is a steep submarine canyon cutting across the shelf from the Pacific Ocean to the mainland. The flow patterns revealed by simulated drifters lead to four generalizations about the depth‐averaged, wind‐driven flow: (1) the flow is subject to strong topographic steering, (2) the exchange between Queen Charlotte Sound and the Pacific Ocean is limited to small regions near Cape St James and Cape Scott, (3) the exchange between Queen Charlotte Sound and Hecate Strait is controlled by Moresby Trough, and (4) the observed outflows past Cape St James are not explained by the dynamics of this model.     

A goodness of fit measure related to r2 for model performance assessment

Checking the predictive worth of an environmental model inevitably includes a goodness of fit metric to quantify the degree of matching to recorded data, thereby giving a measure of model performance. Considerable analysis and discussion have taken place over fit indices in hydrology, but a neglected aspect is the degree of communicability to other disciplines. It is suggested that a fit index is best communicated to colleagues via reference to models giving unbiased predictions, because unbiased environmental models are a desirable goal across disciplines. That is, broad recognition of a fit index is aided if it simplifies in the unbiased case to a familiar and logical expression. This does not hold for the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency E which reduces to the somewhat awkward unbiased expression E = 2 – 1/r², where r² is the coefficient of determination. A new goodness of fit index V is proposed for model validation as V = r²/(2‐E), which simplifies to the easily communicated V = r⁴ in the unbiased case. The index is defined over the range 0 ≤ V ≤ 1, and it happens that V < E for larger values of E. Some synthetic and recorded data sets are used to illustrate characteristics of V in comparison to E. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.