GPS for real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems

We identify the key design aspects of a GPS-based system (and in the future, GNSS-based systems) that could contribute to real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems. Our approach is based on models of both transient and permanent displacement of GPS stations caused by large earthquakes, while considering the effect of GPS errors on inverted earthquake source parameters. Our main conclusions are that (1) the spatial pattern, magnitude, and timing of permanent displacement of GPS stations can be inverted for the earthquake source and so predict the 3D displacement field of the ocean bottom, thus providing the initial conditions for tsunami models, and (2) there are no inherently limiting factors arising from real-time orbit and positioning errors, provided sufficient near-field GPS stations are deployed. This signal could be readily exploited by GPS networks currently in place, and will be facilitated by the IGS Real-Time Project as it comes to fruition.     

The restoration of fishing services and the conveyance of risk information in the Southern California Bight

Southern California's marine areas are heavily contaminated with dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and polychlorinated-biphenyls (PCBs), and fish consumption advisories (FCAs) have been issued throughout the region. Between 2002 and 2003, the Montrose Angler Survey, a large-scale survey of subsistence anglers, was developed and implemented on site in Orange and Los Angeles counties. This survey was intended to assist natural resource trustees in the development of restoration programs that will address injuries to natural resources and restore lost economic services for anglers, but the data were never fully analyzed. The trustees have shown a clear preference for ecological restoration programs that may take years to improve fishing services. In contrast, this analysis, which includes a random-parameter fishing site choice model, demonstrates that simple, inexpensive programs such as better signage to warn of FCAs and transportation to clean sites have the potential to yield substantial benefits quickly. This paper also focuses on how different ethnic minority groups are affected by FCAs, and determines how best to communicate risk information and change fishing behavior through outreach programs.     

A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.     

Characterization of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the Baltic Sea by excitation emission matrix fluorescence spectroscopy

Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is the major light absorber in the Baltic Sea. In this study, excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence spectra and UV–visible absorption spectra of CDOM are reported as a function of salinity. Samples from different locations and over different seasons were collected during four cruises in 2002 and 2003 in the Baltic Sea in both Pomeranian Bay and the Gulf of Gdansk. Absorption by CDOM decreased with increased distance from the riverine source and reached a relatively stable absorption background in the open sea. Regression analysis showed that fluorescence intensity was linearly related to absorption by CDOM at 375 nm and a_CDOM(375) absorption coefficients were inversely related to salinity. Analysis of CDOM-EEM spectra indicated that a change in composition of CDOM occurred along the salinity gradient in the Baltic Sea. Analysis of percent contribution of respective fluorophore groups to the total intensity of EEM spectra indicated that the fluorescence peaks associated with terrestrial humic components of the CDOM and total integrated fluorescence decreased with decreasing CDOM absorption. In contrast, the protein-like fraction of CDOM decreased to a lesser degree than the others. Analysis of the percent contribution of fluorescence peak intensities to the total fluorescence along the salinity gradient showed that the contribution of protein-like fluorophores increased from 2.6% to 5.1% in the high-salinity region of the transect. Fluorescence and absorption changes observed in the Baltic Sea were similar to those observed in similar transects that have been sampled elsewhere, e.g. in European estuaries, Gulf of Mexico, Mid-Atlantic Bight and the Cape Fear River plume in the South Atlantic Bight, although the changes in the Baltic Sea occurred over a much smaller salinity gradient.     

A field comparison of two methods for the determination of copper complexation: Bacterial bioassay and fixed-potential amperometry

Complexation of copper added to seawater was determined by bacterial bioassay and fixedpotential amperometry. Consistent results were obtained by these two fundamentally different methods. The results of this study support the validity of both techniques and the field applicability of fixed-potential amperometry.The intercomparison studies were performed on samples collected at the N.Y.C. sewage sludge dumpsite and in relatively unpolluted coastal waters. In this limited study, the calculated free cupric ion concentrations at ambient total copper concentrations were similar at both sites.     

Creating an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum from a giant impact

The giant impact hypothesis is the dominant theory explaining the formation of our Moon. However, the inability to produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum has cast a shadow on its validity. Computer-generated impacts have been successful in producing virtual systems that possess many of the observed physical properties. However, addressing the isotopic similarities between the Earth and Moon coupled with correct angular momentum has proven to be challenging. Equilibration and evection resonance have been proposed as means of reconciling the models. In the summer of 2013, the Royal Society called a meeting solely to discuss the formation of the Moon. In this meeting, evection resonance and equilibration were both questioned as viable means of removing the deficiencies from giant impact models. The main concerns were that models were multi-staged and too complex. We present here initial impact conditions that produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum. This is done in a single-staged simulation. The initial parameters are straightforward and the results evolve solely from the impact. This was accomplished by colliding two roughly half-Earth-sized impactors, rotating in approximately the same plane in a high-energy, off-centered impact, where both impactors spin into the collision.     

Variation in Coronal Activity from Solar Cycle 24 Minimum to Maximum Using Three-Dimensional Reconstructions of the Coronal Electron Density from STEREO/COR1

Three-dimensional electron density distributions in the solar corona are reconstructed for 100 Carrington rotations (CR 2054?–?2153) during 2007/03?–?2014/08 using the spherically symmetric method from polarized white-light observations with the inner coronagraph (COR1) onboard the twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). These three-dimensional electron density distributions are validated by comparison with similar density models derived using other methods such as tomography and a magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model as well as using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)-C2. Uncertainties in the estimated total mass of the global corona are analyzed based on differences between the density distributions for COR1-A and -B. Long-term variations of coronal activity in terms of the global and hemispheric average electron densities (equivalent to the total coronal mass) reveal a hemispheric asymmetry during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24, with the northern hemisphere leading the southern hemisphere by a phase shift of 7?–?9 months. Using 14 CR (\(\approx13\)-month) running averages, the amplitudes of the variation in average electron density between Cycle 24 maximum and Cycle 23/24 minimum (called the modulation factors) are found to be in the range of 1.6?–?4.3. These modulation factors are latitudinally dependent, being largest in polar regions and smallest in the equatorial region. These modulation factors also show a hemispheric asymmetry: they are somewhat larger in the southern hemisphere. The wavelet analysis shows that the short-term quasi-periodic oscillations during the rising and maximum phases of Cycle 24 have a dominant period of 7?–?8 months. In addition, it is found that the radial distribution of the mean electron density for streamers at Cycle 24 maximum is only slightly larger (by \(\approx30\%\)) than at cycle minimum.     

Spatial and temporal patterns in the hyperbenthic community structure in a warm temperate southern African permanently open estuary

The spatial and temporal patterns in the hyperbenthic community structure (>500 μm) in the warm temperate, permanently open Kariega Estuary situated along the south-eastern coastline of South Africa was investigated monthly over a period of twelve months. Data were collected using a modified hyperbenthic sledge at six stations along the length of the estuary. Physico-chemical data indicate the presence of a constant reverse salinity gradient, with highest salinities measured in the upper reaches and lowest at the mouth of the estuary. Strong seasonal patterns in temperature, dissolved oxygen and total chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration were evident. Total average hyperbenthic densities ranged between 0.4 and 166 ind.m⁻³ in the lower net and between 0.2 and 225 ind.m⁻³ in the upper net. Hyperbenthic biomass values ranged between 0.02 and 11.9 mg.dry weight.m⁻³ in the lower net and between 0.02 and 17.4 mg.dry weight.m⁻³ in the upper net. Both the lower and upper nets were numerically dominated by decapods (mainly brachyuran crab zoea) with the exception of June and July 2008 when mysids (mainly Mesopodopsis wooldridgei) dominated, comprising up to 72.4 ± 58.14% of the total abundance in the lower net. A redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that 99.2% of the variance in the hyperbenthic community structure could be explained by the first two canonical axes. Axis one, which accounted for 96.8% of the total variation detected in the ordination plot was highly correlated with sedimentary organic content and to a lesser extent the chl-a concentration within the Kariega Estuary. The correlations with the second canonical axis (2.4%) were less obvious, however, salinity and seston concentration were weakly correlated with this axis.