Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting

Abstract

The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.

Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149.     

Condensed hyperelements method of non-vertical consistent boundaries for wave propagation analysis in irregular media

The study of wave propagation in finite/infinite media has many applications in geotechnical and structural earthquake engineering and has been a focus of research for the past few decades. This paper presents an analysis of 2D anti- plane problems （Love waves） and 2D in-plane problems （Rayleigh waves） in the frequency domain in media consisting of a near-field irregular and a far-field regular part. The near field part may contain structures and its boundaries with the far-field can be of any shape. In this study, the irregular boundaries of the near-field are treated as consistent boundaries, extending the concept of Lysmer＇s vertical consistent boundaries. The presented technique is called the Condensed Hyperelements Method （CHM）. In this method, the irregular boundary is limited to a vertical boundary at each end that is a consistent boundary at the far-field side. Between the two ends, the medium is discretized with hyperelements. Using static condensation, the stiffness matrix of the far-field is derived for the nodes on the irregular boundary. Examples of the application of the CHM illustrate its excellent accuracy and efficiency.     

The Aterno valley strong-motion array: seismic characterization and determination of subsoil model

The paper focuses on the strong motion array deployed in the upper Aterno River Valley, in the immediate outskirts north-west of the town of L’Aquila, which is part of the Italian Strong Motion Network operated by the Department of Civil Protection. The array is composed of six accelerometric stations located along a cross section of the valley. The importance of this array relies on the fact that a large amount of high-quality records were obtained during the 2009 L’Aquila seismic sequence, from both the mainshock and several aftershocks. These data are especially important to investigate site effects in sediment-filled valleys during moderate earthquakes in epicentral area because well-documented observational studies are very limited in the literature. However, the main drawback for the study of site effects in the Aterno valley is the lack of a detailed knowledge of the geometry of the valley, soil layering and dynamic properties of materials. The main motivation for this study stems from the need to provide a reliable subsoil model of the valley coupled with high-quality strong motion data. Based on the above, in the framework of S4 project, a major effort was undertaken to get a trustworthy cross section of the valley by an ad hoc investigation, comprising geological and geotechnical surveys as well as an extensive geophysical campaign, characterized by both active and passive measurements. These results were complemented by additional geological and geotechnical data available in the literature. By merging all the information acquired, a 2D subsoil model of the transversal section of the upper Aterno valley has been produced. The valley is characterised by an asymmetric shape with a shallower rock basement at the western edge of the valley that deepens at the valley centre. Moreover, based on the results of geophysical tests, representative V_s values were assigned to the different lithologic units forming the alluvial deposits filling the valley. Shear wave velocity is a fundamental parameter for ground response studies and it is also effective in classifying the accelerometric station from a seismic point of view. The 2D model may be therefore, considered a benchmark model for future studies of site effects. It will offer the possibility to examine site effects with a complex underlying geology and to validate the results of numerical simulations of site response analyses with the numerous observations from earthquake recordings, both for weak and strong ground motion conditions.     

The age and thermal history of Cerro Rico de Potosi, Bolivia

 Cerro Rico de Potosi, Bolivia, is the world’s largest silver deposit and has been mined since the sixteenth century for silver, and for tin and zinc during the twentieth century, together with by-product copper and lead. The deposit consists primarily of veins that cut an altered igneous body that we interpret to be a dacitic volcanic dome and its underlying tuff ring and explosion breccia. The deposit is compositionally and thermally zoned, having a core of cassiterite, wolframite, bismuthinite, and arsenopyrite surrounded by a peripheral, lower-temperature mineral assemblage consisting principally of sphalerite, galena, lead sulfosalt, and silver minerals. The low-temperature assemblage also was superimposed on the high-temperature assemblage in response to cooling of the main hydrothermal system. Both the dacite dome and the ore fluids were derived from a larger magmatic/hydrothermal source at depth. The dome was repeatedly fractured by recurrent movement on the fault system that guided its initial emplacement. The dome was extruded at 13.8±0.2 Ma (2σ), based on U-Th-Pb dating of zircon. Mineralization and alteration occurred within about 0.3 my of dome emplacement, as indicated by a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar date of 13.76±0.10 Ma (1σ) for sericite from the pervasive quartz-sericite-pyrite alteration associated with the main-stage, high-temperature, mineralization. The last thermal event able to reset zircon fission tracks occurred no later than 12.5±1.1 Ma (1σ), as indicated by fission-tract dating. Minor sericite, and magmatic-steam alunite veins, were episodically formed around 11 Ma and between 8.3 and 5.7 Ma; the younger episodes occurring at the time of extensional fracturing at Cerro Rico and widespread volcanism in the adjacent Los Frailes volcanic field. None of these younger events appear to be significant thermal/mineralizing events; the exceptionally flat thermal release pattern of ³⁹Ar from sericite and the results of the fission-tract dating of zircon show that none of the younger events was hot enough, and lasted long enough, to cause significant loss of Ar or annealing of zircon fission tracks. U-Th-Pb dating of zircon cores indicates a Precambrian progenitor for some zircons, and REE analyses of dated samples of hydrothermally altered dacite show the presence of a prominent positive Eu anomaly, which constrains interpretations of the origin and evolution of the magmatic/hydrothermal system. Received: 14 October 1995/Accepted: 29 January 1996     

Thermomechanical properties of deep argillaceous formations

A difficulty in the interpretation of mechanical and thermo-mechanical tests on specimens drawn from large argillaceous formations is the strong inhomogeneity of void ratio, clay minerals and carbonates content.

In this paper a relationship is developed to link strength and the maximum preconsolidation stress to the initial void ratio and carbonate content. Compressibility is also correlated to carbonates.

Thermal strains in drained and undrained conditions for a Spanish, a belgian and an Italian natural clay are compared. In the elastic state strains are comparable, while in the plastic range thermal strains are highest for the Belgian clay, lower in the Spanish cemented clay and lowest in the Italian clay, very stiff and cemented.     

The role of gametes of the macroalgae <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ascophyllum nodosum</Emphasis> (L.) Le Jolis and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Fucus vesiculosus</Emphasis> L. (Fucales,Phaeophyceae) in summer nanoplankton of the White Sea coastal waters

Studies of macrophytes in the coastal zone of the Artic Seas, including the White Sea, have shown the essential role of these algae in the activity of the coastal half-latitude ecosystems. In summer, during the macrophyte reproduction period, a great number of reproduction products are released into the water. For a short time, this considerably affects the ratio of the nanoplankton in the populations that inhibit the vast and shallow coastal areas. At different coastal sites in Chernorechenskaya Inlet, Kadalaksha Bay, during the period of intensive reproduction of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus vesiculosus, 42 plankton samples were collected in 2005. During this period the concentration of antherozoids in the water reached 55000 cells/ml (216 mg C/m³). The number of eggs was within the range of 0.05–0.7 cells/ml. The proportion of antherozoids in the total biomass of nanoplankton varied at different coastal sites from 0.37 to 99%, with a mean of 46% for the reproduction period of A. nodosum, and only 7% for the reproduction period of F. vesiculosus. As was shown by counts of F. vesiculosus female gametes in sedimentation traps, 1 m² of the macrophyte bed (assuming 100% coverage) produces 18000–108000 eggs per day (0.33–2 mg C). The calculated flux of the reproductive material from the brown algae beds to the coastal water shows good agreement with the sample counts.     

Scattering properties of planetary regolith analogs

The physics of scattering of electromagnetic waves by media in which the particles are in contact, such as planetary regoliths, has been thought to be relatively well understood when the particles are larger than the wavelength. However, this is not true when the particles are comparable with or smaller than the wavelength. We have measured the scattering parameters of planetary regolith analogs consisting of suites of well-sorted abrasives whose particles ranged from larger to smaller than the wavelength. We measured the variation of reflectance as the phase angle varied from 0.05° to 140°. The following parameters of the media were then deduced: the single scattering albedo, single scattering phase function, transport mean free path, and scattering, absorption, and extinction coefficients. A scattering model based on the equation of radiative transfer was empirically able to describe quantitatively the variation of intensity with angle for each sample. Thus, such models can be used to characterize scattering from regoliths even when the particles are smaller than the wavelength. The scattering parameters were remarkably insensitive to particle size. These results are contrary to theoretical predictions, but are consistent with earlier measurements of alumina abrasives that were restricted to small phase angles. They imply that a basic assumption made by virtually all regolith scattering models, that the regolith particles are the fundamental scattering units of the medium, is incorrect. Our understanding of scattering by regoliths appears to be incomplete, even when the particles are larger than the wavelength.     

Excitation of whistler waves by reflected auroral electrons

Excitation of electron cyclotron waves and whistlers by reflected auroral electrons which possess a loss-cone distribution is investigated. Based on a given magnetic field and density model, the instability problem is studied over a broad region along the auroral field lines. This region covers altitudes ranging from one quarter of an Earth radius to five Earth radii. It is found that the growth rate is significant only in the region of low altitude, say below the source region of the auroral kilometric radiation. In the high altitude region the instability is insignificant either because of low refractive indices or because of small loss cone angles.