Efficient Generation Portfolio Construction Using Time-Varying Correlations

We constructed a procurement portfolio for the Indian power sector using two variants of the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model to derive time-varying correlations between major coal indices. We used prices and qualities of observed cargos to adjust indices for quality gaps as well as for freight costs and power plant efficiency factors. Using the relative homogeneity of the energy content of imports from Australia, South Africa, and Indonesia, we found that the regional seaborne market is highly correlated during normal economic conditions, while suffering brief departures in correlation during demand and supply shocks. Our results show that the buying behavior of power producers is aligned with the mean-variance efficient portfolio of delivered prices using time-varying correlation estimates, but not free-on-board coal index prices. This study challenges the notion that thermal coal importers only source material with a freight price advantage and highlights the importance of coal quality gaps in power production.     

An open source,server-side framework for analytical web mapping and its application to health

In this paper, we detail the design and the implementation of an open source, server-side web mapping framework for the analysis of health data. The framework forms part of a larger project, the goal of which is to provide an analytical web geographical information system (GIS) that enables health experts to analyse spatial aspects of health data. The aim of the framework is to provide a method for the dynamic and flexible spatial visualisation of health data to facilitate data exploration and analysis. Consequently, a dynamic thematic web mapping technique, an extension to the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) web map service standard, was developed. The technique combines a data query, processing technique and styling methodology on the fly to generate a thematic map. The resulting thematic map represents a virtual map layer that enables a user to rapidly visually summarise properties of a data-set. A test web interface was developed to assess the efficacy of the web mapping technique. As the dynamic web mapping method builds on existing OGC web mapping standards, it can be readily integrated with the existing lightweight slippy map web clients and virtual globes.     

HJ-1A/B卫星CCD影像的武汉市东湖水色三要素遥感研究

以武汉市东湖为研究区域,利用同步的MODIS-Terra气溶胶光学厚度数据为输入参数,采用FLAASH模型对2010年3月11日HJ-1A/B卫星CCD影像进行大气校正处理,并利用多年实测数据建立叶绿素a浓度、悬浮泥沙浓度、黄色物质吸收系数三要素神经网络反演模型,对水色三要素进行反演。通过对反演结果与实测数据的对比分析可知,悬浮泥沙浓度、黄色物质吸收系数和叶绿素a浓度的平均相对误差分别为28.052%、17.628%和35.621%,表明HJ-1A/B卫星CCD传感器基本能满足II类水体水色要素的遥感监测需求。     

准噶尔盆地腹部超压顶面附近深层砂岩碳酸盐胶结作用和次生溶蚀孔隙形成机理

准噶尔盆地腹部深层超压顶面附近(现今埋深4400~6200m, 温度105~145℃) 砂岩中广泛出现的碳酸盐胶结作用和次生溶蚀孔隙与超压流体活动关系密切.由于超压封闭和释放引起其顶面附近砂岩中的孔隙压力和水化学环境的周期性变化可导致碳酸盐沉淀和易溶矿物溶解过程交替出现.根据腹部地区超压顶面附近深埋砂岩成岩作用、碳酸盐胶结物含量、储集物性、碳酸盐胶结物碳、氧同位素和烃源岩热演化模拟等资料的综合研究表明: 含铁碳酸盐胶结物是主要的胶结成分, 长石类成分的次生溶蚀孔隙是主要的储集空间类型, 纵向上深层砂岩碳酸盐胶结物出现15%~30%含量的地层厚度范围约在邻近超压顶面之下100m至之上大于450m, 碳酸盐胶结物出现大于25%含量高值带分布在靠近超压顶面向上的250~300m的地层厚度范围, 超压顶面附近砂岩中碳酸盐胶结物含量高值的深度范围也是次生溶蚀孔隙(孔隙度10%~20%) 发育带的范围; 因晚白垩世以来深部侏罗纪煤系有机质生烃增压作用, 导致在超压顶面附近砂岩晚成岩作用阶段深部富含碳酸盐的超压流体频繁活动, 所形成的碳酸盐胶结物受到了明显的与深部生烃增压有关的超压热流体和有机脱羧作用的影响; 超压流体多次通过超压顶面排放, 使得超压顶面附近砂岩遭受了多期酸性流体溶蚀作用过程, 形成了次生溶蚀孔隙发育带.