Scenarios of methane emission reductions to 2030: abatement costs and co-benefits to ozone air quality and human mortality

Methane emissions contribute to global baseline surface ozone concentrations; therefore reducing methane to address climate change has significant co-benefits for air quality and human health. We analyze the costs of reducing methane from 2005 to 2030, as might be motivated to reduce climate forcing, and the resulting benefits from lower surface ozone to 2060. We construct three plausible scenarios of methane emission reductions, relative to a base scenario, ranging from 75 to 180 Mton CH₄ yr^?1 decreased in 2030. Using compilations of the global availability of methane emission reductions, the least aggressive scenario (A) does not incur any positive marginal costs to 2030, while the most aggressive (C) requires discovery of new methane abatement technologies. The present value of implementation costs for Scenario B are nearly equal to Scenario A, as it implements cost-saving options more quickly, even though it adopts positive cost measures. We estimate the avoided premature human mortalities due to surface ozone decreases by combining transient full-chemistry simulations of these scenarios in a global atmospheric chemical transport model, with concentration-mortality relationships from a short-term epidemiologic study and projected global population. An estimated 38,000 premature mortalities are avoided globally in 2030 under Scenario B. As benefits of methane reduction are positive but costs are negative for Scenario A, it is justified regardless of how avoided mortalities are valued. The incremental benefits of Scenario B also far outweigh the incremental costs. Scenario C has incremental costs that roughly equal benefits, only when technological learning is assumed. Benefits within industrialized nations alone also exceed costs in Scenarios A and B, assuming that the lowest-cost emission reductions, including those in developing nations, are implemented. Monetized co-benefits of methane mitigation for human health are estimated to be $13–17 per ton CO₂eq, with a wider range possible under alternative assumptions. Methane mitigation can be a cost-effective means of long-term and international air quality management, with concurrent benefits for climate.     

Experimental transplanting of Posidonia australis seagrass in Port Hacking, Australia, to assess the feasibility of restoration

Over the last 50 years, about one-third of the original area of the seagrass Posidonia australis has been lost from Port Hacking (Australia) due to anthropogenic impacts. To assess the feasibility of restoring these seagrass meadows, healthy Posidonia rhizomes were transplanted to four impact sites and one control site. Survival rates of transplanted shoots were monitored in situ bi-monthly for 16 months and, at the end of the experiment, rhizome growth, shoot growth, shoot production and growth architecture were assessed by harvesting tagged rhizomes. A total of 575 shoots were transplanted and after 16 months 650 shoots were present. Four of the five sites exhibited high survival rates in the short term (less than six months) but only two impact sites, Burraneer Bay (BB) and Red Jacks Point (RJP), and the control site (CS) survived to the end of the experiment. Total number of shoots increased by 61% at CS, tripled at BB, but decreased by 22% at RJP. Rhizome growth varied significantly between site, from 22.3 +/- 1.4 cm yr(-1) at BB to 9.1 +/- 1.0 cm yr(-1) at RJP. Shoot growth did not vary significantly between sites and was approximately 2-3 cm yr(-1). At BB and CS there was substantial colonisation of the surrounding substrate, with new rhizomes, orthotropic shoots and transitional shoots produced. Survival of transplants appeared to depend on whether the factors that had caused the original loss of Posidonia were still operating in the study area.     

卡尔曼滤波在低轨卫星精密定轨中的应用

星上计算机的处理能力不断提高,地基控制系统资源日益紧张,这些都对卫星自主定轨提出了迫切的要求,利用卡尔曼滤波进行卫星自主定轨将具有十分广阔的应用前景。但由于低轨卫星受摄动力较大,使得其动力学方程十分复杂,本文对如何建立适当的模型进行了分析。标准卡尔曼滤波只有在满足一定约束条件时,才能得到最优解。但利用星载GPS进行卫星定轨时,这些约束条件并不能得到完全的满足,针对这些问题本文讨论了相关噪声和滤波发散,观测值粗差等问题。     

Considering the influence of sequestration duration and carbon saturation on estimates of soil carbon capacity

Rates of soil C sequestration have previously been estimated for a number of different land management activities, and these estimates continue to improve as more data become available. The time over which active sequestration occurs may be referred to as the sequestration duration. Integrating soil C sequestration rates with durations provides estimates of potential change in soil C capacity and more accurate estimates of the potential to sequester C. In agronomic systems, changing from conventional plow tillage to no-till can increase soil C by an estimated 16±3%, whereas increasing rotation intensity can increase soil C by an estimated 6±3%. The increase in soil C following a change in rotation intensity, however, may occur over a slightly longer period (26 yr) than that for tillage cessation (21 yr). Sequestration strategies for grasslands have, on average, longer sequestration durations (33 yr) than for croplands. Estimates for sequestration rates and durations are mean values and can differ greatly between individual sites and management practices. As the annual sequestration rate declines over the sequestration duration period, soil C approaches a new steady state. Sequestration duration is synonymous with the time to which soil C steady state is reached. However, soils could potentially sequester additional C following additional changes in management until the maximum soil C capacity, or soil C saturation, is achieved. Carbon saturation of the soil mineral fraction is not well understood, nor is it readily evident. We provide evidence of soil C saturation and we discuss how the steady state C level and the level of soil C saturation together influence the rate and duration of C sequestration associated with changes in land management.     

Comets

Summary The status of cometary astronomy and astrophysics as of mid-1992 is reviewed, i.e. at a time when the first in situ observations of comets in 1985–86 have been thoroughly discussed, interpreted and compared with ground-based investigations. Many earlier ideas about comets were vindicated and a plethora of new discoveries resulted which have now led to reformulation of certain observational strategies and, in particular, to greatly improved possibilities for the detailed physical/chemical modelling of many cometary phenomena.A main purpose of this paper is to assess the current situation and to provide a reasonably complete, yet concise and critical evaluation of the most important questions and promising lines of research in this field. After a short introduction which defines the overall subject and the framework of the present review (Sect. 1), we take a look at some of the major past developments of our concepts about comets, in particular the crucial new insights which were gained during the past four decades (Sect. 2). The rapid advances in observational technology have greatly extended the realm of accessible problems and we next discuss the present possibilities and restrictions of the various techniques employed (Sect. 3).Part II of this paper discusses the modelling of cometary comae and tails (Sect. 4), the cometary nucleus (Sect. 5), the evolution (Sect. 6) and origin (Sect. 7) of comets and ends with an overview of the main questions now being asked by cometary studies (Sect. 8).     

Sea-ice characterization measurements needed for testing ofmicrowave remote sensing models

The nature and accuracy of ice-characterization measurements needed to test two microwave backscattering models are clarified by examining the sensitivities of these models to variations in the geophysical parameters they require as input. First, the Bragg, or small perturbation, model for rough surface scattering, which appears appropriate for backscattering from new ice types at L-band, is considered. The sensitivities of this model to variations in the dielectric constant of the ice and to the power spectrum of surface roughness are examined. The dense-medium radiation-transfer model at X-band is considered for backscattering from air bubbles embedded in multilayer ice. The sensitivities of this model to air-bubble size, air-volume fraction, and dielectric loss in the ice are examined. Based on these sensitivities, quantitative characterization guidelines for model testing are discussed     

Observations of the longitudinal magnetic field in the transition region and photosphere of a sunspot

The Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft has observed for the first time the longitudinal component of the magnetic field by means of the Zeeman effect in the transition region above a sunspot. The data presented here were obtained on three days in one sunspot, have spatial resolutions of 10 arc sec and 3 arc sec, and yield maximum field strengths greater than 1000 G above the umbrae in the spot. The method of analysis, including a line-width calibration feature used during some of the observations, is described in some detail in an appendix; the line width is required for the determination of the longitudinal magnetic field from the observed circular polarization.The transition region data for one day are compared with photospheric magnetograms from the Marshall Space Flight Center. Vertical gradients of the magnetic field are computed from the two sets of data; the maximum gradients of 0.41 to 0.62 G km^–1 occur above the umbra and agree with or are smaller than values observed previously in the photosphere and low chromosphere.     

AN IMPROVED SEMI-IMPLICIT TIME DIFFERENCE SCHEME OF SPECTRAL MODEL AND NUMERICAL APPLICATIONS

In fact,the popular semi-implicit time difference scheme of spectral model still includes someimportant linear terms using time explicit difference scheme,and the major terms are directlyrelated to fast internal-and external-gravity waves in the atmospheric forecasting equation.Additionally,due to using time difference on two terms at different time.the popular schemeartificially introduces unbalance between pressure gradient force and Coriolis force terms whilenumerically computing their small difference between large quantities.According to thecomputational stability analysis conducted to the linear term time difference scheme in simpleharmonic motion equation,one improved semi-implicit time difference scheme is also designed inour study.By adopting a kind of revised time-explicit-difference scheme to these linear terms thatstill included in spectral model governing equations,the defect of spectral model which only partlyusing semi-implicit integrating scheme can be overcome effectively.Moreover,besides all spectralcoefficients of prognostic equations,especially of Helmholtz divergence equation,can be workedout without any numerical iteration,the time-step (computation stability) can also be enlarged(enhanced) by properly introducing an adjustable coefficient.     

控制网连接点坐标值粗差的可定位性研究

在原有测量控制网(称旧网)的基础上建立同级扩大网或低级加密网(称新网)时,新旧网之间的重合点(称连接点)坐标值粗差的检验是平差前的一个重要环节。本文将连接点坐标视为带协方差阵的观测值,采用数据探测法定位其粗差。借助于 Gauss-Markov模型下两个备选假设检验的理论,推导了连接点相关坐标观测值粗差可定位性基本公式,讨论了各类平面网中连接点坐标观测值粗差的可发现性和可区分性。     

地形图符号库的设计

地形图中符号可分为点状符号、面状符号和线状符号,不同比例尺的地形图,其符号的构造规律是一致的,只是符号的结构与尺寸不同。本文在于探索这些符号的构造规律,并进行有机组织。