氢——预报地震的灵敏元素

1976年唐山7.8级地震之后,到1991年底,首都圈地区先后发生了宁河6.9级、大同6.1级等6次5级以上中强地震和一系列3.5级以上中小地震,每次中强地震和部分中小地震前后,北京地区水化监测井网均能监测到地下热水中氢气含量明显的异常上升变化,其幅度达正常背景值的几倍、十几倍、几十倍甚至更高,震后均逐渐恢复正常,这表明地下氢气是反应地下应力应变灵敏的地球化学组分,也是地震预报很有希望的前兆手段之一     

Size-Fractionated Primary Production Estimated by a Two-Phytoplankton Community Model Applicable to Ocean Color Remote Sensing

In order to estimate primary production from ocean color satellite data using the Vertical Generalized Production Model (VGPM; Behrenfeld and Falkowski, 1997), we propose a two-phytoplankton community model. This model is based on the two assumptions that changes in chlorophyll concentration result from changes of large-sized phytoplankton abundance, and chlorophyll specific productivity of phytoplankton tends to be inversely proportional to phytoplankton size. Based on the analysis of primary production data, P _opt ^B , which was one parameter in the VGPM, was modeled as a function of sea surface temperature and sea surface chlorophyll concentration. The two-phytoplankton community model incorporated into the VGPM gave good estimates in a relatively high productive area. Size-fractionated primary production was estimated by the two-phytoplankton community model, and P _opt ^B of small-sized phytoplankton was 4.5 times that of large-sized phytoplankton. This result fell into the ranges observed during field studies.     

Impact of soil moisture and winter wheat height from the Loess Plateau in Northwest China on surface spectral albedo

The understanding of surface spectral radiation and reflected radiation characteristics of different surfaces in different climate zones aids in the interpretation of regional surface energy transfers and the development of land surface models. This study analysed surface spectral radiation variations and corresponding surface albedo characteristics at different wavelengths as well as the relationship between 5-cm soil moisture and surface albedo on typical sunny days during the winter wheat growth period. The analysis was conducted using observational Loess Plateau winter wheat data from 2015. The results show that the ratio of atmospheric downward radiation to global radiation on typical sunny days is highest for near-infrared wavelengths, followed by visible wavelengths and ultraviolet wavelengths, with values of 57.3, 38.7 and 4.0%, respectively. The ratio of reflected spectral radiation to global radiation varies based on land surface type. The visible radiation reflected by vegetated surfaces is far less than that reflected by bare ground, with surface albedos of 0.045 and 0.27, respectively. Thus, vegetated surfaces absorb more visible radiation than bare ground. The atmospheric downward spectral radiation to global radiation diurnal variation ratios vary for near-infrared wavelengths versus visible and ultraviolet wavelengths on typical sunny days. The near-infrared wavelengths ratio is higher in the morning and evening and lower at noon. The visible and ultraviolet wavelengths ratios are lower in the morning and evening and higher at noon. Visible and ultraviolet wavelength surface albedo is affected by 5-cm soil moisture, demonstrating a significant negative correlation. Excluding near-infrared wavelengths, correlations between surface albedo and 5-cm soil moisture pass the 99% confidence test at each wavelength. The correlation with 5-cm soil moisture is more significant at shorter wavelengths. However, this study obtained surface spectral radiation characteristics that were affected by land surface vegetation coverage as well as by soil physical properties.     

江苏省夏季最高温度定量预报方法

以江苏省徐州、南京、射阳3个探空站2002～2006年7～8月逐日观测资料为基础,选取了影响最高温度变化的因子,利用逐步回归方法建立了以徐州、南京、射阳3地为中心的区域预报模型,并对模型的回归效果和预报情况进行分析.剖析了其用于实际预报的合理性和可信度,同时与欧洲中期天气预报中心动力数值预报结果相结合,利用高斯权重插值方法将预报场的格点资料捕值到江苏各站点,通过PP法,完成了江苏省最高温度的定量预报.预报当天最高温度误差在1℃以下的概率为5O%左右,2℃以下概率在8O%左右,该方法可用于最高温度预报.     

On approximation for fractional stochastic partial differential equations on the sphere

This paper gives the exact solution in terms of the Karhunen–Loève expansion to a fractional stochastic partial differential equation on the unit sphere \({\mathbb {S}}^{2} \subset {\mathbb {R}}^{3}\) with fractional Brownian motion as driving noise and with random initial condition given by a fractional stochastic Cauchy problem. A numerical approximation to the solution is given by truncating the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We show the convergence rates of the truncation errors in degree and the mean square approximation errors in time. Numerical examples using an isotropic Gaussian random field as initial condition and simulations of evolution of cosmic microwave background are given to illustrate the theoretical results.     

兰州市活动断层土壤气汞、氡地球化学特征场地试验

在兰州市主要活动断层上选择有断层露头或有钻孔资料的典型场地开展了断裂带土壤气异常特征及其影响因素的试验研究。结果显示断层带上方土壤气氡、汞不仅具有明显的峰值异常显示,而且其异常的形态特征对断层产状和断层性质有显著的反映,断层土壤气测量是活断层探测和研究的有效方法。结果还显示覆盖层厚度对断层带土壤氡、汞浓度的峰值形态及特征具有显著的影响。     

利用湖州台形变观测资料检测地震激发的地球球形自由振荡

利用湖州地震台垂直摆倾斜仪、水管倾斜仪、伸缩仪和体应变仪等观测资料,采用功率谱密度估计方法,获得2011年3月11日日本9.0级大地震激发的_0S_5~_0S_(50)基频球型自由振荡数据;比对PREM模型的理论计算周期,其相对偏差均小于1.2‰,且体应变观测的相对偏差最小;伸缩仪和体应变仪能清晰地检测到与地壳深部结构密切关系的_0S_2、_0S_3和_0S_4低阶振型。     

南半球环流异常与我国夏季旱涝分布关系及其影响机制

利用1951—2000年NCEP/NCAR风场和高度场再分析资料及全国160站降水量资料, 采用奇异值分解、相关和合成分析方法, 研究6—8月南半球500 hPa高度、高低层纬向风距平差异常 (Δu₈₅₀-Δu₂₀₀) 与我国夏季旱涝分布的关系及其影响机制。结果表明:当500 hPa澳大利亚高压脊偏强及西南太平洋热带地区高低层纬向风距平差为负值时, 来自南半球冷空气活动偏弱, 有利于西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏南, 热带季风偏弱, 我国夏季雨带偏南。反之, 当澳大利亚高压脊偏弱及西南太平洋热带地区高低层纬向风距平差为正值时, 我国北方降水偏多。同时, 定义了澳大利亚冬季风指数, 指出澳大利亚冬季风强年和弱年影响我国夏季旱涝分布异常的水汽输送型式不同。     

陆面面积平均通量的参数化问

目前,气候和大气边界层物理研究中一个十分重要的研究方向就是面积平均通量的参数化问题。本文对这一研究方向中存在的问题、可能的解决方法和目前的研究进展情况进行了阐述,简要介绍了非均匀陆面影响的高度及其尺度划分,阐述了混合高度、参考层高度（观测高度和模式第一层高度）、近地层高度、内边界层高度、平衡层高度、粗糙度副层和边界层高度等之间的关系及其在非均匀尺度划分中的作用,并且阐述了整体输送公式在不同尺度的非均匀陆面中存在的问题及相应的可能解决办法。同时还对中尺度的非均匀陆面驱动的一类非经典中尺度环流的参数化,即中尺度通量的参数化问题进行了评述。最后针对内蒙古草原实验和青藏高原实验等具体问题,提出了边界层观测和非均匀陆面参数化方法的几点问题。     

永定河形成时代研究

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通过对永定河冲洪积物的研究发现,永定河形成前后的沉积环境明显不同。钻探资料表明永定河形成前本地区沉积环境主要为湖泊相,当时湖水宁静,沉积物主要为泥岩和粉砂。永定河形成时洪水裹携大量碎屑形成巨厚的泥石流堆积,沉积环境为冲洪积相,主要为砂砾石、砂、粉砂和粘土互层,形成巨大的冲洪积扇。通过新5孔钻孔岩芯273块古地磁样品的系统剩磁测试,获得了该钻孔岩芯的古地磁极性序列,对比国际地磁极性年表,认为该钻孔岩芯剖面 0～96.59m以正极性带为主,对应布容正极性时,其地质时代为0～0.78Ma;  96.59～246.79m则以反极性带为主,对应松山反极性时,其地质时代为0.78～2.58Ma;  246.79～413.64m以正极性带为主,则对应高斯正极性时,其地质时代为2.58～3.58Ma,属于新近纪上新世。研究推测永定河最早的沉积物为上新世形成,距今3.33～3.58Ma。
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