融雪洪水跳跃变异对其参数估计不确定性影响分析

利用Pettitt非参数检验法和Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法,分析年最大洪峰流量序列的非一致性,确定序列的变异形式,采用“分解-合成”理论对其进行一致性修正,得到过去、现状两种条件下年最大洪峰流量序列,根据贝叶斯理论对序列一致性修正前后参数不确定性进行估计,并对其预报区间优良性进行评价。研究结果表明：年最大洪峰流量序列变异点发生在1993年,序列整体上升趋势不显著,在1957-1993年子序列呈显著下降趋势,而1994-2006年子序列变化趋势不显著,跳跃变异为序列主要变异形式;给出了实测、还原及还现序列参数后验分布估计值及95%置信区间,将其结合优化适线法进行P-Ⅲ型频率分析,得到修正前后设计频率年最大洪峰流量预报区间估计值;还原、还现序列与实测序列相比,预报区间覆盖率均提高24%,平均带宽分别减少39.59%、23.17%,平均偏移幅度分别减少28.45%、11.39%。通过对非一致性年最大洪峰流量序列还原/还现计算,可减小参数估计不确定性对其计算产生的影响,从而提高预报区间的可靠性。     

有机显微组分X射线衍射分析方法在油气评价中的应用

Ｘ射线衍射分析法适宜于分析有机显微组分的芳环层的层状结构。有机质的芳环层结构与其类型和演化程度有关。表征有机质芳环层的层状结构的主要参数：高度Ｌｃ、宽度Ｌａ、网面间距ｄｈｋ１和芳环层层数可作为油气勘探中判断源岩性质、类型、演化程度与生烃潜力的依据。文章还对参数的变化与意义进行了初步讨论。     

龙门山平驿铺组沉积体系及旋回层序研究

本文首次从龙门山区下泥盆统平驿铺组中，划分出河口湾、三角洲、滨岸和陆棚四个沉积体系和三个Ⅲ级Ｔ－Ｒ旋回层序。平面上，四个沉积体系组成了扬子板块西侧的古大陆边缘由过渡相区和滨岸相区相间分布的古地理格局；垂向上，两相区中的三个Ⅲ级Ｔ—Ｒ旋回层序也由不同的沉积体系组成，旋回层序的演化虽然受构造差异沉降影响，但仍以Ⅲ级海平面升降变化为主要控制因素，并具同步演化规律，可分别代表古大陆边缘活动型和相对稳定型的两种Ⅲ级Ｔ—Ｒ旋回层序模式。     

Experimental Study on Hydrocarbon Formation Due to Reactions Between Carbonates and Water or Water—Bearing Minerals in Deep Earth

In order to investigate the mechanism of formation of abiogenetic hydrocarbons at the depth of the Earth,experimental research on reactions between carbonates and water or waterbearing minerals was carried out at the pressure of about 1GPa and the temperature range of 800-1500℃.The reactions took place in an open and nonequilibrium state.Chromatographic analyses of the gas products indicate that in the experiments there were generated CH4-dominated hydrocarbons,along with some CO2 and CO.Accordingly,we think there is no essential distinction between free-state water and hydroxy in the minerals in the process of hydrocarbon formation.This study indicates that reactions between carbonates and water or water-bearing minerals should be an important factor leading to the formation of abiogenetic hydrocarbons at the Earth‘s depth.     

The Characteristics and Causes of Land Subsidence in Tanggu Based on the GPS Survey System and Numerical Simulation

Land subsidence is a severe hazard threatening Tanggu, a flat lowland area, and evidences of land subsidence can be seen throughout the city. A new reasonable GPS network was set up in this area from 2008 to 2010. The monitoring data show that land subsidence was serious and two main subsidence cones were obviously formed in the region. One emerged at Hujiayuan, with the maximum rate reaching 60 mm/a, and the influence region enlarged prominently from 2005 to 2010. The other one occurred at Kaifaqu, which became obvious only after 2005, and it showed a decreasing tendency with time. To analyze the causes of ground settlement, a correlation between groundwater withdrawal and land subsidence was firstly made. The results confirmed that over-exploitation of groundwater was the major cause for the severe settlement in Hujiayuan. Meanwhile, the subsidence of Kaifaqu was also related to groundwater withdrawal before 2005. However, the relationship became unconspicuous after 2005. To find the cause of this abnormity, a three-dimensional finite element numerical model, coupled with groundwater flow and subsidence, was built. The simulation results indicate that the subsidence induced by high-rise buildings is serious, but the affected range is limited and it also shows a decreasing trend with time, corresponding to the subsidence characteristics at Kaifaqu. Therefore, more attention should be paid to this hazard induced by engineering construction besides groundwater withdrawal, as more high-rise buildings are under construction in Tanggu.     

基于EMD组合模型的径流多尺度预测

受全球气候变化与人类活动影响,径流序列愈发呈现出非稳态与非线性特征,为降低由此而引发的预报误差,充分发挥不同模型对提高径流预测精度的优势,针对传统径流预报模型的单一性,以干旱区典型内陆河玛纳斯河为例,采用经验模态分解(EMD)提取径流序列中具有物理含义的信号,得到不同时间尺度的多个固有模态函数(IMF)及1个趋势项,利...     

Genesis of the Xinqiao Gold-Sulfide Orefield, Anhui Province, China

The Xinqiao S-Fe-Cu-Au orefield is located in the Tongling ore cluster in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in East China. There have been many researches regarding the genesis of the Xinqiao orefield in recent years, showing that it belongs to various types, such as sedimentary-reformed type, stratabound-skarn type, sedimentary submarine rocks-hosted exhalative type. We propose that it was formed in two periods of mineralization base on systematic field observation and Pb and S isotopic analyses in nearly ten years. The first period was formed during a syngenetic sedimentary process, whereas the massive sulphide orebodies are mainly related to the Yanshanian granitic magmatism. Sulfide metallic mineral associations show zoning around a granite intrusion, i.e. magnetite and pyrite→pyrite, chalcopyrite and native gold→pyrite, sphalerite and galena. Gold orebodies occur outside the contact zone of the granite intrusion.     

A PRIMARY RECOGNITION ON THE CLIMATIC SIGNIFICANCE OF ICE CORE ISOTOPE RECORD IN NAIMONA'NYI OF WEST TIBETAN PLATEAU

纳木那尼冰川是喜马拉雅山西部地区规模较大的冰川之一,也是开展冰芯气候意义研究有重要潜在价值的冰川.但由于纳木那尼冰川位于西风环流和印度季风影响范围的交界带,不同的环流系统所输送的水汽带来不同的降水稳定同位素信号.因此确定纳木那尼冰芯同位素记录的气候意义是开展该地区冰芯气候记录研究的前提条件.2008年在该冰川积累区所钻取的8.78m浅冰芯为这一研究工作提供了可能.本文对该冰芯的稳定同位素记录以及普兰气象站的气象数据进行了分析与讨论.研究结果表明,同位素的年际变化与当地普兰县气象站气温的年际变化具有较好的对应关系.这可能与当地降水受到夏季季风的影响较小有关.测量结果表明早期的深冰芯钻取点位于冰川的消融区,而冰川的积累区仍位于冰川更高的区域,而且积累区冰川厚度更大,更有可能保存更长时间尺度的冰芯记录.这也为以后开展新的纳木那尼深孔冰芯及气候意义研究提供了借鉴.     

沿海表层沉积物中重金属的有效结合态

以浙江沿海表层沉积物为研究对象,系统地研究了重金属有效结合态与沉积环境、矿物组成和人为排放等环境因素之间的相互关系.结果表明:沿海表层沉积物中重金属的积累数量,呈现出潮汐河口沉积物>沿海沉积物>强潮汐河口沉积物的趋势,这反映了不同沉积类型对重金属富集作用的差异;重金属的有效结合态,总体上以铁锰氧化物结合态>碳酸盐结合态>硫化物及有机结合态>可交换态的顺序存在,但是不同的重金属或同种重金属在不同的采点,主要有效结合态的比例存在明显的差异,这不仅与重金属的地球化学性质、沉积环境和沉积物中的粘土矿物组成有关,更受到重金属污染物的人为排放量的影响.