On numerical earthquake prediction

Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.     

Failure time variation derived from R–S relation: the role of the static stress perturbation

In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by (1) fault locking, (2) self-acceleration or nucleation (possible foreshocks), (3) coseismic slip, and (4) post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earthquake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-slider block model with the combination of rate-and-state-dependent friction relation, in this study, we have approximately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Furthermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive (R–S) model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R–S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model.     

The April 24, 2013 Changning M s4.8 earthquake: a felt earthquake that occurred in Paleozoic sediment

The dense broadband seismic network provides more high-quality waveform that is helpful to improve constraint focal depth of shallow earthquake. Many shallow earthquakes occurring in sediment were regarded as induced events. In Sichuan basin, gas industry and salt mining are dependent on fluid injection technique that triggers microseismicity. We adopted waveform inversion method with regional records to obtain focal mechanism of an M _s4.8 earthquake at Changning. The result suggested that the Changning earthquake occurred at a ESE thrust fault, and its focal depth was about 3 km. The depth phases including teleseismic pP phase and regional sPL phase shows that the focal depth is about 2 km. The strong, short-period surface wave suggests that this event is a very shallow earthquake. The amplitude ratio between Rayleigh wave and direct S wave was also used to estimate the source depth of the mainshock. The focal depth (2–4 km) is far less than the depth of the sedimentary layer thickness (6–8 km) in epicentral region. It is close to the depth of fluid injection of salt mining, which may imply that this event was triggered by the industrial activity.     

Organic carbon isotope gradient and ocean stratification across the late Ediacaran-Early Cambrian Yangtze Platform

Organic carbon isotope(δ13Corg) data from two well-preserved sections across a shallow-to-deep water transect of the late Ediacaran-Early Cambrian Yangtze Platform in South China show significant temporal and spatial variations. In the shallow-water Jiulongwan-Jijiapo section, δ13Corg values of the late Ediacaran Dengying Formation range from -29‰ to -24‰. In the deep-water Longbizui section, δ13Corg values from time-equivalent strata of the Dengying Formation are mostly between –35‰ and -32‰. These new data, in combination with δ13Corg data reported from other sections in South China, reveal a 6‰–8‰ shallow-to-deep water δ13Corg gradient. High δ13Corg values(-30‰) occur mostly in shallow-water carbonate rocks, whereas low δ13Corg values(-32‰) dominate the deep-water black shale and chert. The large temporal and spatial δ13Corg variations imply limited buffering effect from a large dissolved organic carbon(DOC) reservoir that was inferred to have existed in Ediacaran-Early Cambrian oceans. Instead, δ13Corg variations between platform and basin sections are more likely caused by differential microbial biomass contribution to total organic matter. High δ13Corg values(-30‰) documented from shallow-water carbonates are within the range of typical Phanerozoic δ13Corg data and may record the isotope signature of organic matter from primary(photosynthetic) production. In contrast, low δ13Corg values(-32‰) from deep-water sections may have resulted from higher chemoautotrophic or methanotrophic biomass contribution to bulk organic matter in anoxic environments. The δ13Corg data provide indirect evidence for ocean stratification and episodic chemocline fluctuations in the Ediacaran-Early Cambrian Yangtze Platform.     

Epicenter and magnitude of large earthquake determined from high-rate GPS observations: A case study of the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

For earthquake and tsunami early warning and emergency response,the earthquake epicenter and magnitude should be determined rapidly and correctly.Using high-rate GPS observations,we can readily obtain precise and high resolution displacement time series and the seismic waveforms during the earthquake.In this paper,a new algorithm is proposed for estimating the earthquake epicenter and magnitude with the seismic waveforms derived from high-rate GPS data during the earthquake.A case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is conducted from 1 Hz GPS data and the epicenter and magnitude are determined.Compared with the results issued by the China Seismological Bureau,the estimation error of the epicenter and the magnitude is about 12 km and 0.1 magnitude unit,respectively.It has shown that high-rate GPS could be a new tool feasible for estimating the earthquake epicenter and magnitude,independent of or combined with seismometers.     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

辅助微分方程完全匹配层在声波方程数值模拟中的应用

在地震波数值模拟中,为提高算法精度,需要使用高阶时间更新格式,而普通的非分裂完全匹配层（PML）吸收边界局限于低阶时间格式。辅助微分方程完全匹配层（ADE PML）是一种可以适应任意阶时间格式的非分裂完全匹配层技术,且可以直接应用复频移拉伸算子以提高PML在高角度入射时的效果。作者将ADE PML应用于声波方程四阶Runge Kutta时间格式的数值模拟中,对其吸收效能进行了检验。数值模拟表明,复频移ADE PML在高角度入射时表现优于非复频移ADE PML。另外,不同辅助变量更新格式的吸收效果存在微小差异,显格式下计算结果与解析解吻合较好。长时间能量衰减计算表明ADE PML可以稳定至2 × 10⁵时间步。     

兰州新区建设用地生态适宜性评价

在地理信息技术的支持下,修正单纯的权重叠加法,采用潜力-限制性分析法分析了兰州新区建设用地的生态潜力和生态阻力,对其生态适宜性做出科学评价,得到兰州新区可用作建设用地的理想区域。结果表明：（1）兰州新区建设用地开发的生态潜力总体以一级为主,二级次之,三级和四级区所占比重较小;（2）一级生态阻力主要分布在新区南部山地,主要表现为地形复杂、工程地质条件差、地质灾害发生频繁等;（3）兰州新区建设用地生态适宜性达一级的面积所占比重最大,为39 425.91 hm²,占新区总面积的48.91%。三级适宜区面积最小,仅为6 513.2 hm²,占新区总面积的8.08%。对应于生态适宜性评价结果,兰州新区土地应用可划分为集中建设区、重点开发区、限制建设区和禁止建设区。其中,集中建设区和重点建设区应为兰州新区建设用地开发的理想区域。