Unusual comets (?) as observed from the Hubble Space Telescope

In separate projects, the Hubble Space Telescope has been used to assess the nature of 3 unusual objects: Chiron, Pholus and P/Shoemaker-Levy 9. This paper will compare these objects and discuss how the unique capabilities of the HST may be used to address the issue of cometary activity in each. Chiron, which has exhibited obvious cometary characteristics for several years, might have a bound dust coma that is unresolvable from the ground. In an attempt to directly observe this bound coma, we have obtained a series of images of Chiron with the HST Planetary Camera. Inner coma structure out to 0.2 has been detected. From these observations we infer a low bulk nucleus density for Chiron. Both HST and ground-based images of 5145 Pholus have been obtained to search for evidence of activity. The ground-based data give the most sensitive limits; however, it is shown that the WFPC-2 on HST can give limits 2–3 orders of magnitude more sensitive than conventional ground-based limits. Finally, as part of a collaborative effort, we have been obtaining HST observations of SL9 in order to determine the fragment sizes and to assess their nature (i.e., cometary vs. asteroid). Both ground-based observations from the UH 2.2m telescope on Mauna Kea and HST observations show that the near-nucleus dust is redder than the sun. While FOS spectra did not detect OH emission, the WFPC-2 HST data show that the inner coma remained very circular from July 1993 up until 2 weeks prior to impact, implying continued production of dust.     

Rainforest carbon financing in New Zealand: A case study of REDD+ on Māori land

This study examines a case study of the Rarakau Rainforest Conservation Project on Māori‐owned land in western Southland – New Zealand's first and only REDD+ project. It explores the potential for REDD+ projects on Māori land throughout the country. Key findings show that REDD+ is technically feasible in New Zealand, but commercially dependent on (currently low) demand in the domestic retail carbon offset and ‘corporate social responsibility’ market. Market research suggests that there is sufficient demand to cater to the needs of a small number of REDD+ projects, but insufficient demand to roll out a nation‐wide scheme.     

The self-organising of youth volunteers during the Rena oil spill in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

This study explores the communication and organising of youth volunteers during a crisis, focusing on how they conceived, framed, and executed self-organising efforts during the 2011 Rena oil spill in New Zealand. It offers insights into the intersections of self-organising, youth volunteering and crisis events which have not been researched before. The study addresses two core research questions: 1. how was ‘volunteering’ conceptualised by youth volunteers involved in the Rena crisis; and 2. how did these volunteers communicate and self-organise during this crisis? The findings indicate that self-organising emerged out of a resistance towards structured responses and as a reaction to the inability of the official volunteer response to meet the needs of the community. Self-organised efforts were particularly attractive among youth volunteers because they offered flexibility, required minimal administrative processes, and fostered an environment of innovation and creativity. The volunteers’ youthful energy and technological aptitude additionally drove their self-organised responses. The study identifies the considerable challenges that crisis officials faced in utilising youth volunteers despite the significant advantages of self-organising.     

Evaluation of ocean and climate models using present‐day observations and forcing

Abstract

The most common method used to evaluate climate models involves spinning them up under perpetual present‐day forcing and comparing the model results with present‐day observations. This approach clearly ignores any potential long‐term memory of the model ocean to past climatic conditions. Here we examine the validity of this approach through the 6000‐year integration of a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea‐ice model. The coupled model is initially spun‐up with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and orbital parameters applicable for 6KBP. The model is then integrated forward in time to 2100. Results from this transient coupled model simulation are compared with the results from two additional simulations, in which the model is spun up with perpetual 1850 (preindustrial) and 1998 (present‐day) atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and orbital parameters. This comparison leads to substantial differences between the equilibrium climatologies and the transient simulation, even at 1850 (in weakly ventilated regions), prior to any significant changes in atmospheric CO₂. When compared to the present‐day equilibrium climatology, differences are very large: the global mean surface air and sea surface temperatures are ,0.5°C and ,0.4°C colder, respectively, deep ocean temperatures are substantially cooler, Southern Hemisphere sea‐ice cover is 38% larger, and the North Atlantic conveyor 16% weaker in the transient case. These differences are due to the long timescale memory of the deep ocean to climatic conditions which prevailed throughout the late Holocene, as well as to its large thermal inertia. It is also demonstrated that a ‘cold start’ global warming simulation (one that starts from a 1998 equilibrium climatology) underestimates the global temperature increase at 2100 by ,10%. Our results question the accuracy of current techniques for climate model evaluation and underline the importance of using paleoclimatic simulations in parallel with present‐day simulations in this evaluation process.     

Constraining groundwater flow,residence times,inter-aquifer mixing,and aquifer properties using environmental isotopes in the southeast Murray Basin,Australia

Environmental isotopes (particularly δ¹⁸O, δ²H, and δ¹³C values, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, and a¹⁴C) constrain geochemical processes, recharge distribution and rates, and inter-aquifer mixing in the Riverine Province of the southern Murray Basin. Due to methanogenesis and the variable δ¹³C values of matrix calcite, δ¹³C values are highly variable and it is difficult to correct ¹⁴C ages using δ¹³C values alone. In catchments where δ¹³C values, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, and major ion geochemistry yield similar a¹⁴C corrections, ∼15% of the C is derived from the aquifer matrix in the silicate-dominated aquifers, and this value may be used to correct ages in other catchments. Most groundwater has a¹⁴C above background (∼2 pMC) implying that residence times are <30 ka. Catchments containing saline groundwater generally record older ¹⁴C ages compared to catchments that contain lower salinity groundwater, which is consistent with evapotranspiration being the major hydrogeochemical process. However, some low salinity groundwater in the west of the Riverine Province has residence times of >30 ka probably resulting from episodic recharge during infrequent high rainfall episodes. Mixing between shallower and deeper groundwater results in ¹⁴C ages being poorly correlated with distance from the basin margins in many catchments; however, groundwater flow in palaeovalleys where the deeper Calivil–Renmark Formation is coarser grained and has high hydraulic conductivities is considerably more simple with little inter-aquifer mixing. Despite the range of ages, δ¹⁸O and δ²H values of groundwater in the Riverine Province do not preserve a record of changing climate; this is probably due to the absence of extreme climatic variations, such as glaciations, and the fact that the area is not significantly impacted by monsoonal systems.     

Estimating the Mg <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> Index from 1961 Through 1981 Using Ca <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> K Images from the Mt Wilson Observatory

An empirical model of solar UV spectral irradiance has been developed that is based on observed spectral radiance measurements and full disk Ca ii K images. The Mg ii index is then calculated from the estimated spectra in a narrow wavelength range (180 Å) near the Mg ii doublet at 2800 Å. Our long term goal is to expand this wavelength range from 10 to 4000 Å in continuing studies based on spectral data covering this wavelength range (e.g. Skylab, UARS/SUSIM, TIMED/SEE, etc.). Our previous modeling effort produced spectra in this 180 Å range and the resulting Mg ii index values for the period from 1991 through 1995 and we have used observations during this time period to validate the model results. The current paper presents results from this model based on a 21-year portion of the recently digitized Ca ii K images from the Mt Wilson Observatory (MWO) film archive. Here we present details of the model, the required model modifications, and the resulting Mg ii index from 1961 through 1981. Since the NOAA Mg ii index did not begin until 1978, the present model results are compared to a Mg ii index estimated from the F_10.7 radio flux over this 21-year period. The NOAA Mg ii index, which is derived from measured UV spectra, is also included for comparison from late 1978 through 1981.     

Downscaling of Precipitation over Vancouver Island using a Synoptic Typing Approach

A statistical downscaling technique is employed to link atmospheric circulation produced by an ensemble of global climate model (GCM) simulations over the twenty-first century to precipitation recorded at weather stations on Vancouver Island. Relationships between the different spatial scales are established with synoptic typing, coupled with non-homogeneous Markov models to simulate precipitation intensity and occurrence. Types are generated from daily precipitation observations spanning 1971 to 2000. Atmospheric predictors used to influence the Markov models are derived from two versions of GCM output: averages of GCM grid cells selected by correlation maps of circulation and precipitation data and an approach involving common Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) calculated from GCM output over the northeast Pacific Ocean. Projections for 2081 to 2100 made using averaged grid cells find that winter (November–February) precipitation anomalies produce modestly positive values, with gains of 7.5% in average precipitation, typical increases of 9.0% rising to 20% in the case of high-intensity precipitation, and little spatial dependence. In contrast, average and high-intensity summer precipitation (June–September) decline negligibly at most island weather stations with the exception of those in the southwestern sections, which experience reductions of 15% relative to 1971 to 2000. Projections made using common EOFs display a strong spatial dependence. Future winter precipitation is expected to increase only on the west coast of the island by 11%, on average, while the southeastern coast will experience decreases of 5% to 10%. The same pattern repeats in summer, though with negligible increases on the west coast and declines of 12% to 16% on the southeastern coast. The reliability of this novel EOF method remains to be confirmed definitively, however. In both seasons precipitation occurrence decreases slightly at all stations with declines in the total days with measurable precipitation ranging from 2% to 8%.

RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Nous employons une technique statistique de réduction d’échelle pour lier la circulation atmosphérique produite par un ensemble de simulations du GCM (Global Climate Model) durant le XXI^e siècle aux précipitations enregistrées à des stations météorologiques sur l’île de Vancouver. Les relations entre les différentes échelles spatiales sont établies au moyen d'un typage synoptique couplé avec des modèles markoviens non homogènes pour simuler l'intensité et la fréquence des précipitations. Les types sont générés à partir des observations quotidiennes de précipitations au cours de la période 1971–2000. Les prédicteurs atmosphériques utilisés pour influencer les modèles markoviens sont dérivés de deux versions de sorties du GCM : les moyennes de mailles du GCM sélectionnées par tables de corrélation des données de circulation et de précipitations et une approche fondée sur les fonctions orthogonales empiriques (EOF) communes calculées d'après la sortie du GCM pour le nord-est du Pacifique. Les projections pour la période 2081–2100 basées sur des moyennes de mailles montrent que les anomalies de précipitations hivernales (novembre–février) produisent de faibles valeurs positives, avec des gains de 7.5% dans les précipitations moyennes, des accroissements caractéristiques de 9.0% augmentant à 20% dans le cas des précipitations de forte intensité, et peu de dépendance spatiale. En revanche, les précipitations estivales (juin–septembre) moyennes et de forte intensité diminuent de façon négligeable à la plupart des stations météorologiques de l’île, à l'exception de celles situées dans secteur sud-ouest qui subissent une réduction de 15% par rapport à 1971–2000. Les projections faites à l'aide des fonctions orthogonales empiriques communes exhibent une forte dépendance spatiale. Les précipitations hivernales futures devraient augmenter seulement sur la côte ouest de l’île de 11% en moyenne alors que la côte sud-est connaîtra des diminutions de 5 à 10%. La même configuration se répète en été, bien qu'avec des accroissements négligeables sur la côte ouest et des diminutions de 12 à 16% sur la côte sud-est. La fiabilité de cette nouvelle méthode EOF reste toutefois à établir. Dans les deux saisons, la fréquence des précipitations diminue légèrement à toutes les stations, les diminutions du nombre total de jours avec précipitations mesurables variant entre 2 et 8%.     

Estimating the Size of Hale-Bopp's Nucleus

A variety of independent methods have been used to estimate the size of the nucleus of comet Hale-Bopp. Several groups have analyzed optical and infrared images of the comet and claim to detect the signature of the nucleus, despite the presence of a strong coma. A detection of the nucleus was also claimed during mm- and cm-wave observations of Hale-Bopp shortly before perihelion. A team of observers detected the occultation of a star by the nucleus of Hale-Bopp in October 1996. The maximum observed gas production rate of the comet near perihelion can be used to place a lower limit on the size of the nucleus. This paper critically reviews the many different methods used to constrain the size of Hale-Bopp's nucleus. All of the techniques are affected by systematic errors that can be difficult to quantify precisely. Nevertheless, the available evidence strongly suggests that the nucleus of Hale-Bopp has an effective radius of at least 15 km and is probably in the range 20–35 km. Thus, the prodigious gas and production rates from this comet are naturally explained by its unusually large size. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Radio Investigations Of 19p/Borrelly In Support To The Deep Space 1 Flyby

NASA's Deep Space 1 mission flew by Comet 19P/Borrelly on September 22, 2001.We present observations of molecular species obtained with the 30-m telescope of theInstitut de Radioastronomie Millimétrique (IRAM) and the Nançay radio telescopeat and near the time of this flyby. OH, HCN, and CS production rates were measured,while upper limits were deduced for CO, H₂CO and H₂S.