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31.
P. Pravec A.W. Harris B.D. Warner K. Hornoch D. Higgins A. Galád Š. Gajdoš J. Világi Yu.N. Krugly V. Chiorny W.R. Cooney Jr. D. Terrell R.D. Stephens V. Reddy F. Colas R. Durkee R.A. Koff 《Icarus》2008,197(2):497-504
The spin rate distribution of main belt/Mars crossing (MB/MC) asteroids with diameters 3-15 km is uniform in the range from f=1 to 9.5 d−1, and there is an excess of slow rotators with f<1 d−1. The observed distribution appears to be controlled by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. The magnitude of the excess of slow rotators is related to the residence time of slowed down asteroids in the excess and the rate of spin rate change outside the excess. We estimated a median YORP spin rate change of ≈0.022 d−1/Myr for asteroids in our sample (i.e., a median time in which the spin rate changes by 1 d−1 is ≈45 Myr), thus the residence time of slowed down asteroids in the excess is ≈110 Myr. The spin rate distribution of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with sizes in the range 0.2-3 km (∼5 times smaller in median diameter than the MB/MC asteroids sample) shows a similar excess of slow rotators, but there is also a concentration of NEAs at fast spin rates with f=9-10 d−1. The concentration at fast spin rates is correlated with a narrower distribution of spin rates of primaries of binary systems among NEAs; the difference may be due to the apparently more evolved population of binaries among MB/MC asteroids. 相似文献
32.
Leah E. Morgan Madicken Munk Brett Davidheiser‐Kroll Nicholas H. Warner Sanjeev Gupta Rachel Slaybaugh Patrick Harkness Darren F. Mark 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2017,41(3):381-396
The chronology of the Solar System, particularly the timing of formation of extra‐terrestrial bodies and their features, is an outstanding problem in planetary science. Although various chronological methods for in situ geochronology have been proposed (e.g., Rb‐Sr, K‐Ar), and even applied (K‐Ar), the reliability, accuracy, and applicability of the 40Ar/39Ar method makes it by far the most desirable chronometer for dating extra‐terrestrial bodies. The method however relies on the neutron irradiation of samples, and thus a neutron source. Herein, we discuss the challenges and feasibility of deploying a passive neutron source to planetary surfaces for the in situ application of the 40Ar/39Ar chronometer. Requirements in generating and shielding neutrons, as well as analysing samples are described, along with an exploration of limitations such as mass, power and cost. Two potential solutions for the in situ extra‐terrestrial deployment of the 40Ar/39Ar method are presented. Although this represents a challenging task, developing the technology to apply the 40Ar/39Ar method on planetary surfaces would represent a major advance towards constraining the timescale of solar system formation and evolution. 相似文献
33.
Laura Sandri Gill Jolly Jan Lindsay Tracy Howe Warner Marzocchi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(3):705-723
By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand.
Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the
initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific
short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise.
The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in
the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits
from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the
costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1 × 1-km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a
cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important
points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase
is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current contingency plan. Secondly,
the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in
the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and
when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated. 相似文献
34.
BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy) 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Jacopo Selva Antonio Costa Warner Marzocchi Laura Sandri 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(6):717-733
In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall
hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size
classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used
in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum
of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific
reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models
which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations
will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model. 相似文献
35.
J. S. Young J. E. Baldwin R. C. Boysen C. A. Haniff P. R. Lawson † C. D. Mackay D. Pearson J. Rogers D. St.-Jacques ‡ P. J. Warner D. M. A. Wilson R. W. Wilson § 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,315(3):635-645
We report contemporaneous multi-wavelength interferometric imaging of the red supergiant star Betelgeuse ( α Orionis), using the Cambridge Optical Aperture Synthesis Telescope (COAST) and the William Herschel Telescope (WHT), at wavelengths of 700, 905 and 1290 nm. We find a strong variation in the apparent symmetry of the stellar brightness distribution as a function of wavelength. At 700 nm the star is highly asymmetric, and can be modelled as the superposition of three bright spots on a strongly limb-darkened disc. However, at 905 nm only a single low-contrast feature is visible and at 1290 nm the star presents a featureless symmetric disc. The change in spot contrast with wavelength is consistent with a model in which the bright spots represent unobscured areas of elevated temperature, owing perhaps to convection, on a stellar disc that itself has a different appearance, i.e. geometrical extent and limb-darkening profile, at different wavelengths. The featureless centre-to-limb brightness profile seen at 1290 nm is consistent with this model and suggests that future interferometric monitoring of the star to quantify the size changes associated with radial velocity variations should be performed at similar wavelengths in the near-infrared. 相似文献
36.
Lynne D. Talley Pavel Tishchenko Vladimir Luchin Alexander Nedashkovskiy Sergey Sagalaev Dong-Jin Kang Mark Warner Dong-Ha Min 《Progress in Oceanography》2004,61(2-4):277
Hydrographic properties from CTD and discrete bottle sample profiles covering the Japan (East) Sea in summer, 1999, are presented in vertical sections, maps at standard depths, maps on isopycnal surfaces, and as property–property distributions. This data set covers most of the Sea with the exception of the western boundary region and northern Tatar Strait, and includes nutrients, pH, alkalinity, and chlorofluorocarbons, as well as the usual temperature, salinity, and oxygen observations. 相似文献
37.
Kirkup et al. (1998) [Australian Geographer 29, pp. 241–55] criticise our theory of alternating flood regimes and question its application to river management. A brief but critical appraisal of their work shows many errors and misrepresentations. When these are corrected, their challenge is found deficient. 相似文献
38.
H. C. Duthie J-R Yang T. W. D. Edwards B. B. Wolfe B. G. Warner 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1996,15(1):79-97
Limnological changes in Hamilton Harbour, Lake Ontario, over the Holocene were investigated by using proxy evidence from diatoms and other siliceous microfossils in a radiometrically dated sediment core (HH26comp), together with environmental data derived from sediment pollen and oxygen and carbon isotope analyses. The evidence demonstrates that the site of Hamilton Harbour has changed over the past 8300 y from a shallow, separate waterbody, to a deep embayment of Lake Ontario. The earliest evidence, from 8300 BP to 7000 BP, is of a mesotrophic pond of moderate alkalinity, warmer than present, and probably with an extensive marginal wetland. An initial transitory connection with the rising water level of Lake Ontario was established at c. 7000 BP, possibly via a deep outlet channel. This connection is 2000 y earlier then previously estimated. Permanent confluence with Lake Ontario was established at c. 6200 BP, causing a decline in inferred trophic level and water temperatures. Microfossils reach a minimum at 4400 BP coincident with the Nipissing Flood. Decreased mixing of Lake Ontario water from about 4000 BP following the Nipissing Flood highstand is evidenced in isotopic and diatom data. Three isolated shifts in the diatom spectrum at c. 4900 BP, 4500 BP, and 3500 BP may be associated with extreme turbidity or storm deposit events. Between 3200 BP and 280 BP, Hamilton Harbour was evidently a moderately alkaline embayment of Lake Ontario, oligotrophic to mesotrophic, and relatively cooler than present. The final 280 y sedimentary record reveals the magnitude of anthropogenically induced changes to the harbour, including eutrophication and organic pollution. 相似文献
39.
40.