Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Microbial community dynamics and biodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in polluted marine sediments in Hong Kong

Dynamics of microbial community and biodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in polluted marine sediments, artificially spiked with a mixture of PAHs (fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthene and pyrene), were examined for a period of 60 days. Microbial communities were characterised by bacterial counts, ester-linked fatty acid methyl ester (EL-FAME) analysis and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). A noted reduction in species diversity occurred only in the high PAH level treatment at onset. Both EL-FAME and DGGE demonstrated a marked shift in microbial community, in all the PAH level treatments, afterwards, with increases in the number of fatty acid degraders, the relative abundance of fatty acid biomarkers for gram-negative bacteria and a decrease in species diversity. The shift was also accompanied by the significant decrease in PAH concentrations. By the end of the experiment, diversity indices, based on both approaches, recovered when PAH concentrations declined to their background levels, except in the high PAH level treatment.     

松潘地区岩金统计成矿予测中泛克立格法的应用

川西北地区是国内重要的岩金普查靶区。本文对松潘地区的地质特征,泛克立格法原理,及在本区的应用情况作了介绍,对主要计算步骤,给出基本结果,对计算获得的有意义异常区,进行地质解释,并将此方法与趋势面分析进行对比。     

铜陵新桥层状菱铁矿成因的矿物学证据及成矿意义

安徽铜陵新桥矿区二叠系栖霞组底部和石炭系黄龙组—船山组之间产出层状、似层状菱铁矿矿层。开展菱铁矿矿层成因研究对于深入剖析区域层控矽卡岩型铜铁矿床成矿机制具有重要意义。本文利用粉晶X射线衍射（XRD）、扫描电镜（SEM）对菱铁矿矿石进行矿物学研究,结果发现菱铁矿矿石主要由菱铁矿、石英、伊利石和有机质等组成,菱铁矿颗粒粒径较小,表面具有成岩自生的自形石英硬模的微结构,SEM原位微区成分分析显示菱铁矿中除了主量元素铁,还含有大量的锰、锌和钙。矿石中存在两种微结构和不同成因的石英：表面具菱铁矿硬模和次生加大结构的碎屑石英;具六方双锥、单锥以及生物成因球形的自生石英。菱铁矿矿石的组成和矿物表面微结构表明其为沉积成因,非岩浆热液起源。富有机质和亚铁的沉积菱铁矿层和沉积胶状黄铁矿层协同作用,可能是铜陵地区乃至长江中下游成矿带层状铜铁矿床层控性重要制约因素,以及可能作为燕山期中酸岩浆演化的氧化性含铜成矿流体卸载成矿的地球化学还原障。

     

新冠疫情期间武汉樱花的情感效应

运用大数据文本挖掘和分析工具,对比新冠疫情期间武汉和非武汉地区居民所发布的微文,探究了武汉樱花在不同居民群体间情感效应的作用机制,研究发现：1）本地居民樱花微文的关注点多而分散,非本地居民的关注点少而集中;2）武汉樱花对不同地区居民情感的影响与疫情发展状况紧密相关;3）武汉樱花在疫情期间对武汉居民具有情感支持效应,对非武汉地区居民具有情感凝聚效应;4）疫情改变人的情感和景观解读背景,并赋予景观新的意义,新的景观意义反作用于居民,构成情感闭合回路。最后提出建议,抗疫恢复工作应多关注居民心理层面的缺失,从居民与城市、景观的情感关系入手,向武汉居民传达城市美好生活理念。     

柯坪6.5级地震的部分前兆异常及预报

1991年2月25日柯坪6.5级地震前,震中附近地区的土层地应力、金属摆倾斜仪等多项前兆观测出现异常变化,说明强震发生前近场灵敏度较低的简陋仪器也能观测到明显的前兆反应。分析、认识这些异常对地震短临预报的决策是有益的。     

新型载体与档案保护

随着新材料、新技术逐渐地应用于档案载体,以及计算机技术被应用于档案管理,这些新型载体与档案的保护问题也日益显露出它的重要性和紧迫性,文章阐述对档案库房科学管理以及如何所采取相应的措施进行保护。     

Genetic mechanism and failure process of the Mogangling seismic landslide

This paper presents a case study on the Mogangling landslide and its characteristics and geological mechanism. The Mogangling landslide is a giant rock landslide located at the intersection of Dadu river and Moxi river. It is a landslide triggered by an earthquake with large magnitude that occurred in 18th century. Based on detailed site investigation, it shows the Mogangling landslide developed in the Kangding complex strata, composed of completely decomposed aggregates of massive-block stone, debris and soil with some gravels, pebbles and sand layer found distributed in front of the landslide. The control factor of the deformation of this landslide is the combined effect of Detuo fault which is located under the slope, and the regional stress formed along structural planes as well as the free surfaces formed by river cutting. Therefore, when the Kangding-Moxi earthquake (Ms =7.7) occurred on 1st June, 1786, due to seismic shaking, topographic amplification effects and back slope effects, the Mogangling landslide occurred. The Dadu River is the most important river for hydropower development in China; large-scale seismic landslides along the Dadu River are the most important geological issue during the construction of hydropower stations. Therefore, this research is important from the point of view of economic and social benefits.     

快速射电暴的数据统计

快速射电暴于2007年首次在脉冲星巡天的历史数据中被发现,是一种在射电波段观测到的具有色散量的单个强脉冲,其特征为持续时间仅为若干毫秒,峰值流量密度可达到央斯基量级。类似于射电脉冲星的单个脉冲,但其色散显著超过同一视线方向上银河系内星际介质的预期最大值。对截止2018年6月帕克斯望远镜、绿岸望远镜、阿雷西博射电望远镜、UTMOST望远镜和ASKAP望远镜已探测到的52例快速射电暴进行了观测量统计分析,根据模型扣除银河系星际介质导致的色散量后,快速射电暴平均色散量为584.5 pc·cm^-3,暗示着快速射电暴来自河外。通过最佳拟合估算红移幂律分布谱dN/dF_obs=4.14±1.30×F■sky^-1·day^-1。根据分析结果预计,FAST望远镜使用19波束接收机后,其多科学目标同时巡天在经过一年时间内能发现大约10个快速射电暴,将有效地扩大样本数量,为快速射电暴研究提供重要信息。