哈萨克斯坦地震地下流体监测、预测的现状及其震兆异常特征的分析

40多年来,哈萨克斯坦地震地下流体观测台网历经初期建网、系统清理、政策调整和优化提高4个阶段,目前已形成与中国北京地区流体监测网相当的规模。分析了哈萨克斯坦流体监测台网的地位、台站分布、观测项目、仪器配置及地震分析预测情况。最后,分析了哈萨克斯坦地震地下流体观测资料的特点,并就哈萨克斯坦流体交换资料的震兆异常特征进行了初步总结。     

基于GIS的天津市应急避难场所选址评价

应急避难场所在城市应急管理体系中占有重要地位,对已建成的应急避难场所选址进行评价,可为应急避难场所个体改进、布局优化和新建选址提供依据。本文在文献研究与天津市城市特点分析的基础上,从有效性、安全性、可达性3个维度构建包含8个评价因子的应急避难场所选址适宜性评价指标体系,应用层次分析法（AHP）确定指标权重。应用GIS空间分析技术建立应急避难场所空间点位分析模型和覆盖范围模型,对天津市27个应急避难场所进行适宜性评价,并对中心城区14个应急避难场所进行满足性评价。结果表明,天津市应急避难场所具有良好的基础,但总体适宜性水平有待进一步提高,尤其是安全性亟需加强;天津市中心城区人口密集,但应急避难场所数量少,服务区域有限,存在较大范围的覆盖盲区,其中和平区人均有效避难面积仅0.2m2,远小于人体最低占用面积0.6m2,达不到人均有效避难要求。     

DISSOLVED AND PARTICULATE ORGANIC CARBON IN YANTAI SISHILI BAY AQUICULTURE WATERS

Investigation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) at 12 stations in Yantal Sishili Bay in May, August, and November of 1997 and March and May of 1998 showed that DOC concentrations varied from 1.14 mg/L to 5.35 mg/L; that the average values at all staticrLs ineach entise varied from 1.52 mg/L to 2.12 mg/L; that POC concentrafions varied from 0.049 mg/L to 1.411mg/L; and averaged 0.159 mg/L to 0.631 mg/L in each cruise. Horizontal distribution of DOC was influ-enced by factors such as continental input, organism activity, temperature, aquieulture environment, etc. The higher POC concentration occurred along the coast. The vertical distribution of DOC and POC changed obviously in spring and summer, but not obviously in autumn and winter. DOC concentration was highest in summer and POC in spring; both were lowest in winter. The seasonal change of DOC was con-sistent with primary productivity seasonal variation, and that of POC was consistent with ehlorophyll-a sea-sanal variation. The seasonal change trend of the C/N ratio of dissolved organic matter was obvious, but the C/N ratio of particulate organic matter had no such trend.     

论中国古代地缘战略制定中的“权衡”——以《盐铁论》为例

《盐铁论》是记录汉朝时期关于盐铁酒榷均输及对匈奴关系的辩论的一部重要著作,能够较典型地反映中国古代地缘战略制定中的“权衡”过程。构建中国古代地缘战略制定中的“权衡”理论分析框架,继而基于该分析框架对《盐铁论》中的地缘战略辩论进行详细解读。《盐铁论》中辩论双方“权衡”的要点包含匈奴对汉朝产生的威胁程度、领土扩张所带来的收益大小和相应地缘战略的合法性3个方面。从思想、方法、目的等比较中西方地缘政治研究差异,指出“权衡”思想为西方主导的地缘政治理论提供新视角。     

Ca, Al-rich inclusions in Yamato 791717 (CO3) carbonaceous chondrite: Formation and alteration

In three polished thin sections of Yamato 791717 (CO3). fifty-five Ca, Al-rich inclusions were found, which include two hibonite-bearing, eight melilite-rich and forty-five spinel-pyroxene inclusions. Based on the petrography and mineral chemistry of the inclusions, it is proposed that the melilite-rich inclusions and spinel-pyroxene inclusions condensed in the solar nebula, and the hibonite-bearing inclusions crystallized from melts. The heavy alteration of the inclusions in Yamato 791717, which probably took place under a very oxidizing condition in the solar nebular, is also confirmed. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49673200). and by the Japanese Society for Promotion of Sciences (JSPS).     

Variability in the vertical hyporheic water exchange affected by hydraulic conductivity and river morphology at a natural confluent meander bend

River confluences and their associated tributaries are key morphodynamic nodes that play important roles in controlling hydraulic geometry and hyporheic water exchange in fluvial networks. However, the existing knowledge regarding hyporheic water exchange associated with river confluence morphology is relatively scarce. On January 14 and 15, 2016, the general hydraulic and morphological characteristics of the confluent meander bend (CMB) between the Juehe River and the Haohe River in the southern region of Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, were investigated. The patterns and magnitudes of vertical hyporheic water exchange (VHWE) were estimated based on a one‐dimensional heat steady‐state model, whereas the sediment vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v) was calculated via in situ permeameter tests. The results demonstrated that 6 hydrodynamic zones and their extensions were observed at the CMB during the test period. These zones were likely controlled by the obtuse junction angle and low momentum flux ratio, influencing the sediment grain size distribution of the CMB. The VHWE patterns at the test site during the test period mostly showed upwelling flow dominated by regional groundwater discharging into the river. The occurrence of longitudinal downwelling and upwelling patterns along the meander bend at the CMB was likely subjected to the comprehensive influences of the local sinuosity of the meander bend and regional groundwater discharge and finally formed regional and local flow paths. Additionally, in dominated upwelling areas, the change in VHWE magnitudes was nearly consistent with that in K_v values, and higher values of both variables generally occurred in erosional zones near the thalweg paths of the CMB, which were mostly made up of sand and gravel. This was potentially caused by the erosional and depositional processes subjected to confluence morphology. Furthermore, lower K_v values observed in downwelling areas at the CMB were attributed to sediment clogging caused by local downwelling flow. The confluence morphology and sediment K_v are thus likely the driving factors that cause local variations in the VHWE of fluvial systems.     

新疆阿尔泰阿勒泰组沉积时代及其形成环境

阿勒泰组变质碎屑岩局部夹变质火山岩广泛分布于南阿尔泰的冲乎尔、克兰和麦兹盆地,其沉积时代和构造环境对于研究阿尔泰造山带的演化过程有重要意义。阿勒泰组碎屑锆石的年代学研究表明,碎唐锆石年龄主要集中在417-383 Ma和507-445 Ma,并出现少量元古宙和太古宙碎屑锆石。少数锆石年龄为380-354 Ma,与阿勒泰组凝灰岩和流纹岩年龄一致(376~354 Ma)。综合研究认为阿勒泰组时代为中-晚泥盆世(382-354 Ma)。阿勒泰组长石石英砂岩分选性和磨圆度较差,为近源沉积,物源岩石主要来自泥盆纪火山岩,其次是晚寒武一早奥陶世火山岩和奥陶纪花岗岩。长石石英砂岩样品具有高的La/Sc(3.9-6.3),La/Y(1.0~1.6),较低的Sc/Cr(0.2~0.4)比值,类似于大陆岛弧相关环境碎屑沉积物,结合Th-Co-Zr/10和Th-Sc-Zr/10以及La-Th-Sc判别图,认为阿勒泰组形成于与岛弧相关的构造环境(弧后盆地),为研究阿尔泰造山带泥盆纪构造演化提供了重要证据。     

吉林省下三叠统卢家屯组LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年及其地质意义

卢家屯组按岩性组合自下而上分为影背山砾岩段、漏斗山杂色岩段、杨树河子黑色岩段,前人采集到的Palaeanodonta-Palaeomutela动物群、Pleuroneia? sp.和叶肢介等生物化石组合指示时代为二叠纪。本次对九台市影背山双顶山卢家屯组建组剖面下、中、上段进行了系统的碎屑锆石U-Pb同位素年代学研究,证实卢家屯组由下至上存在3个最小锆石年龄峰值,分别为(283.4±7.9)、(262.4±3.9)、(255.5±5.8) Ma,确定了卢家屯组的上限为晚二叠世。根据卢家屯组中碎屑锆石存在1 800 Ma和2 500 Ma左右的典型华北板块基底年龄,认为华北板块北缘与其北侧地块群最终闭合时间应为P₃-T₁。     

气候变化对厦门旅游业影响的模糊综合评价

以厦门市旅游业为研究样本,采用系统分析,围绕气候变化对旅游业发展的影响,建立气候变化对旅游业发展影响的评价指标体系,利用层次分析法对各指标因子进行权重测算,再利用模糊综合评价法进行评价,将气候变化对厦门旅游业的影响进行定量分析。结果显示,气候变化对旅游业的影响的隶属度最大值为0.309,是较强的。研究可以明确将旅游业发展过程中受气候变化影响的各个方面,按照受影响程度高低进行划分,从而可以有效指导旅游业相关从业者对风险进行归类,进而协调各方利益,有针对性地发展旅游业,从而实现旅游资源的长期利用和旅游业的可持续发展。     

Influence of future tropical cyclone track changes on their basin-wide intensity over the western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 projections

The possible changes of tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.