Prediction of primary climate variability modes at the Beijing Climate Center

Climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most important predictability sources in subseasonal–interannual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the research and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) in predicting some primary climate variability modes. These include the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), on global scales, as well as the sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the East Asian winter and summer monsoons (EAWM and EASM, respectively), on regional scales. Based on its latest climate and statistical models, the BCC has established a climate phenomenon prediction system (CPPS) and completed a hindcast experiment for the period 1991–2014. The performance of the CPPS in predicting such climate variability modes is systematically evaluated. The results show that skillful predictions have been made for ENSO, MJO, the Indian Ocean basin mode, the WPSH, and partly for the EASM, whereas less skillful predictions were made for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic SST Tripole, and no clear skill at all for the AO, subtropical IOD, and EAWM. Improvements in the prediction of these climate variability modes with low skill need to be achieved by improving the BCC’s climate models, developing physically based statistical models as well as correction methods for model predictions. Some of the monitoring/prediction products of the BCC-CPPS are also introduced in this paper.     

人对温度、湿度、风速的感觉与着衣指数的分析研究

体表温度、体感温度、不舒适指数及着衣指数能将人们对环境气象中温度、湿度、风速和日射的综合感觉或反应定量化.该文对这4个指标进行了详细的分析, 指出各自的适用范围.使用武汉的数据进行计算, 在高温区补充了夏季居民对这4个指标的感觉分类界限, 并讨论了有关的预报问题.     

洪泽湖风生流对风场和水位变化响应特征

深入认识大型湖泊在不同风速、风向和水位下三维风生流结构特征对于湖泊污染控制、生态恢复及资源的开发利用具有重要意义.本文在构建笛卡尔坐标系下洪泽湖三维水动力模型的基础上,利用2次全湖30个点位流场监测数据验证了模型精度.基于1975-2020年长系列风场观测数据,确定了洪泽湖典型风速风向.在此基础上,模拟了16种不同风向,13种不同风速和20种不同水位工况条件下洪泽湖三维风生流结构.结果表明：水动力模型可以较好地刻画洪泽湖三维湖流变化特征.洪泽湖风生流结构随风向变化呈现出较大空间差异.风生流流速随着风速的升高呈加速上升趋势,其中表层水体流速上升幅度远高于其他水层.在2.4 m/s东风驱动下,溧河洼、成子湖和南部湖区垂向平均流速随着水位上升呈先升高后降低的趋势,3个湖区分别在12.7、12.4和12.2 m水位下流速达到最大值.     

NIM陆面过程模式的研究:模式建立与对比研究

为了真实模拟干旱、半干旱地区以及湿润地区的陆面与大气之间的能量和物质交换 ,发展了一个具有普适性的南京气象学院 ( NIM)陆面过程 ( LSP)模式。该模式是由等温植被参数化方案和本文建立的土壤模式所组成。土壤模式又分为五层模式和两层模式两种。利用 1 979年 5～ 8月“青藏高原气象科学实验”资料作验证 ,同时将五层模式与 Deardorff( 1 978)陆面模式、两层模式作了对比 ,结果表明五层土壤模式的模拟效果较好 ,它比 Deardorff模式优越 ,也比两层土壤模式模拟效果稍好一些。     

MODIS资料遥感监测土壤水分与干旱研究进展

干旱是威胁我国及世界农业发展的自然灾害之一,遥感技术已经成为监测土壤水分与旱情的重要手段。本文总结分析了近年来利用MOD IS资料监测土壤水分和干旱的优势,回顾总结了目前利用MOD IS资料监测土壤水分和干旱的方法,着重从光谱法、温度植被干旱指数(TVD I)空间法、植被水分监测法、水分亏缺指数法等几方面进行了重点介绍,并对未来的发展趋势进行了展望。     

河南省政府办公业务资源网

介绍了政府办公业务资源网的接入、栏目设置及使用,具有一定权限的用户能通过门户系统进行公文收发和信息上报,其它局域网用户可通过其专网网站了解全省政府系统的最新动态。     

FTP服务器的建立及客户端的使用

利用FTP文件传输协议,使用Serv-U软件构建FTP服务器,使客户端用户能够通过互联网访问FTP服务器,进行信息资源的共享和传输.     

Late Cenozoic deformation subsequence in northeastern margin of Tibet —Detrital AFT records from Linxia Basin

Two events of Tibet uplifting are revealed by detrital apatite fission track (AFT) age data from Linxia Basin. They occurred at about 14 and 5.4-8.0 MaBP respectively. We interpret the first one to be related to the uplifting of the northern Tibet, which might have resulted from convectively removing the thickened lower lithosphere. The second one is a result of Laji Mountain uplifting. Numerous studies of the Tibetan Plateau suggest that the onset time of the deformation in the northeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau and the time of Tibet attaining to its present elevation is about 8 MaBP. They are approximately coincident with the uplift of Lajishan Mountain. It suggests that the northeastern margin of Tibet propagated northeastwardly to its present site in about 8 MaBP for accommodating the sustained convergence between India-Eurasia plate and for keeping its high elevation. The active block pattern dominating the strong earthquake distribution of Chinese continent probably formed at about 8.0-5.4 MaBP.

     

农业保险气象服务保障法律政策制度研究

农业保险是经济社会发展到一定阶段的产物。它是一项分散农业灾害风险、稳定农民收入、保障农业和农村经济发展的制度安排。气象灾害是农业自然灾害的主体,气象服务是农业保险中的重要环节,深入研究农业保险中的气象法律政策将有助于农业保险的发展。文中介绍了国内外农业保险的政策和实施,对农业保险的气象服务法律政策制度进行了梳理和分析,并对农业保险气象服务法律制度提出可行性建议,以期为我国农业保险的发展提供有益的思路和参考。     

大气背景场对云中液态水反演结果影响

基于机载对空微波辐射计GVR讨论应用BP神经网络算法反演液态水路径时大气背景资料对反演结果的影响,为合理选择训练样本获取更准确的液态水观测数据提供依据,同时有利于了解反演算法的探测适用范围。文章选择多个历史探空资料,按照历史资料时间序列长度、季节和区域进行分类,建立不同类样本集训练BP神经网络获取反演方程,选择样本检验集模拟计算每类反演方程的反演精度,通过反演精度对比分析大气背景资料差异在反演云中液态水时造成的影响。结果表明训练样本的大气背景时空差异影响反演结果,在一定时间范围内增加历史资料序列长度可以减小大气背景差异对反演误差的影响,但当时间序列长度到达一定程度时,增加历史样本量将不再是提高反演精度的一种有效措施。季节分类可以减小大气背景差异对反演误差的影响,但在实际应用中,资料分类带来样本容量减小,对一定时间序列长度的历史资料,按照季节进行分类并不能有效提高垂直累积液态水的反演精度。