Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment

This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models’ (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation.     

Evolution of the Academician Ridge Accommodation Zone in the central part of the Baikal Rift, from high-resolution reflection seismic profiling and geological field investigations

 New high-resolution seismic reflection data from the central part of Lake Baikal provide new insight into the structure and stratigraphy of Academician Ridge, a large intra-rift accommodation zone separating the Central and North Baikal basins. Four seismic packages are distinguished above the basement: a thin top-of-basement unit; seismic-stratigraphic unit X; seismic-stratigraphic unit A; and seismic-stratigraphic unit B. Units A and B were cored on selected key locations. The four packages are correlated with a series of deposits exposed on the nearby western shores: the Ularyar Sequence (Oligocene); the Tagay Sequence (Lower to Middle Miocene); the Sasa Sequence (Upper Miocene to Lower Pliocene); the Kharantsy Sequence (Upper Pliocene); and the Nyurga Sequence (Lower Pleistocene). Based on stratal relationships, sedimentary geometries, distribution patterns and principal morphostructural elements – both onshore and offshore – we propose a new palaeogeographic evolution model for the area. In this model progressive tectonic subsidence of the Baikal basins and successive pulses of uplift of various segments of the rift margins lead to: (a) formation of the ridge as a structural and morphological feature separating the Central and North Baikal basins during the Middle to Late Miocene; (b) gradual flooding of the main parts of the ridge and establishment of a lacustrine connection between the two rift basins during the Late Miocene; and (c) total submergence of the top parts of the crest of the ridge during the latest Pleistocene. This new model helps to better constrain numerous phases in the structural evolution of the Baikal Rift, in which the Academician Ridge as an accommodation zone plays a crucial role. Received: 26 November 1999 / Accepted: 12 March 2000     

Observed precipitation in the Paraná-Plata hydrological basin: long-term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections

The Paraná-Plata basin is the second largest hydrological basin in South America and is of great importance for the countries of the region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The present study focuses on the long-term trends in basin-scale precipitation with special emphasis on the role of distribution changes in extreme large-scale precipitation events and on the characteristics and evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the last 50 years. First, we defined a Paraná-Plata basin total precipitation index (PTPI) as the precipitations spatially averaged over the hydrological basin. On interannual time scales, such an index is mainly representative of anomalous monsoon precipitations in the northern part of the basin and large convective precipitation anomalies in the center of the basin (Paraguay-southern Brazil-Uruguay-northern Argentina) typical of the canonical ENSO teleconnection pattern. Our major findings clearly highlight a positive trend in yearly averaged PTPI mainly from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with a strong dependence from month-to-month. The largest precipitation increase is observed from November to May in southern Brazil and Argentina. A close examination of PTPI distributions during the two halves of the period 1950–2001 shows that the changes in the mean state from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001 result from significant changes in each calendar month mean state and in the tails of the PTPI anomaly distributions in May with lesser and weaker large-scale dry events and stronger large-scale wet events. Further studies will be needed to assess whether the observed trend in large-scale extreme precipitation conditions can be related to natural climate variability or anthropogenic activities and whether it is associated to changes in local/regional extreme events. The stronger wet conditions in different months seem to be associated to changes in ENSO characteristics (amplitude, propagation, spatial structure, ...) since the 1982–1983 El Niño. Indeed, spatial ENSO teleconnections (stronger in November and April–May) have greatly evolved from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong modulation and displacement of the teleconnection patterns from one event to another, impeding the definition of robust statistical relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Paraná-Plata basin (except maybe over a very limited area near the common border between Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil). Finally, the non-antisymmetrical patterns of precipitation between El Niño and La Niña conditions and the non-linear relationship between precipitation and either Niño3.4 or Niño1+2 sea surface temperature indices show that linear statistical forecast systems are actually of very limited use for impact predictions on society on a local or regional scale.     

Observability of the virialization phase of spheroidal galaxies with radio arrays

In the standard galaxy formation scenario plasma clouds with a high thermal energy content must exist at high redshifts since the protogalactic gas is shock heated to the virial temperature, and extensive cooling, leading to efficient star formation, must await the collapse of massive haloes (as indicated by the massive body of evidence, referred to as downsizing ). Massive plasma clouds are potentially observable through the thermal and kinetic Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effects and their free–free emission. We find that the detection of substantial numbers of galaxy-scale thermal Sunyaev–Zel'dovich signals is achievable by blind surveys with next generation radio telescope arrays such as EVLA, ALMA and SKA. This population is even detectable with the 10 per cent SKA, and wide field of view options at high frequency on any of these arrays would greatly increase survey speed. An analysis of confusion effects and of the contamination by radio and dust emissions shows that the optimal frequencies are those in the range 10–35 GHz. Predictions for the redshift distributions of detected sources are also worked out.     

Simulations of galactic cosmic ray impacts on the Herschel/PACS bolometer arrays with Geant4 code

The effects of the in-flight behaviour of the bolometer arrays of the Herschel/Photo-conductor Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) instrument under impacts of Galactic cosmic rays are explored. This instrument is part of the ESA-Herschel payload, which will be launched at the end of 2008 and will operate at the Lagrangian L2 point of the Sun-Earth system. We find that the components external to the detectors (the spacecraft, the cryostat, the PACS box, collectively referred to as the ‘shield’) are the major source of secondary events affecting the detector behaviour. The impacts deposit energy on the bolometer chips and influence the behaviour of nearby pixels. 25% of hits affect the adjacent pixels. The energy deposited raises the bolometer temperature by a factor ranging from 1 to 6 percent of the nominal value. We discuss the effects on the observations and compare simulations with laboratory tests.     

Composite robust active control of seismically excited structures with actuator dynamics

In this paper, composite robust active control schemes are proposed for a class of non-linear base isolated structures in the presence of unknown seismic excitation, parametrical uncertainties and actuator dynamics. Only the information on state variables of the structural base and the first floor of the main structure has been used in the control design. A numerical simulation example is given for a ten-storeyed base isolated structure under the El Centro earthquake to show the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Qualitative analysis of cosmological models in Brans-Dicke theory

Isotropic and homogeneous cosmological models with a perfect fluid cource in Brans-Dicke theory are investigated from the point of view of dynamical system theory.Work partially supported by CNPq (Brazil).     

Estimating hydraulic parameters of a heterogeneous aquitard using long-term multi-extensometer and groundwater level data

The classical aquitard-drainage model COMPAC has been modified to simulate the compaction process of a heterogeneous aquitard consisting of multiple sub-units (Multi-COMPAC). By coupling Multi-COMPAC with the parameter estimation code PEST++, the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K _v) and elastic (S _ske) and inelastic (S _skp) skeletal specific-storage values of each sub-unit can be estimated using observed long-term multi-extensometer and groundwater level data. The approach was first tested through a synthetic case with known parameters. Results of the synthetic case revealed that it was possible to accurately estimate the three parameters for each sub-unit. Next, the methodology was applied to a field site located in Changzhou city, China. Based on the detailed stratigraphic information and extensometer data, the aquitard of interest was subdivided into three sub-units. Parameters K _v, S _ske and S _skp of each sub-unit were estimated simultaneously and then were compared with laboratory results and with bulk values and geologic data from previous studies, demonstrating the reliability of parameter estimates. Estimated S _skp values ranged within the magnitude of 10^?4 m^?1, while K _v ranged over 10^?10–10^?8 m/s, suggesting moderately high heterogeneity of the aquitard. However, the elastic deformation of the third sub-unit, consisting of soft plastic silty clay, is masked by delayed drainage, and the inverse procedure leads to large uncertainty in the S _ske estimate for this sub-unit.     

Tectonometamorphic evolution of the Koralm Complex (Eastern Alps): constraints from microstructures and textures of the ‘Plattengneis’ shear zone

Lattice preferred orientations (LPO) of quartz have been investigated along a south–north oriented section across the Plattengneis of the Koralm Complex (Eastern Alps). The Plattengneis forms an important shear zone within the Austroalpine nappe complex of the Eastern Alps, which has developed during the Cretaceous evolution of the Alpine orogen. The quartz c-axes form small circle distributions in the southernmost parts of the Koralm Complex, which represent the uppermost structural level of the Plattengneis. Further to the North two maxima between the Y and Z directions of the finite strain can be interpreted in terms of preferred slip on the rhomb planes. These fabrics continuously grade into (type I and type II crossed) girdle distributions in a northward direction. A strong maximum near the Y-axis with the tendency to be distributed along a single girdle, with three corresponding maxima of a-axes near the margin of the pole figure, can be observed in the central and northern parts. Such LPO are characteristic for both high grade metamorphic conditions and high finite strain. The microstructures display that the deformation within the Plattengneis shear zone was synmetamorphic. A continuous increase of peak temperatures (and pressure) from approximately 550 °C to approximately 750 °C from the South to the central parts can be inferred from geothermometric calculations. The temperatures then decrease to approximately 650 °C from the central parts to the North. The related pressures increase from 8 to 16 kbar, and then decrease to 10 kbar. The LPO changes that have been observed in the study area are best interpreted in terms of temperature dependence of the activation of glide systems within quartz aggregates. The temperature and pressure evolution may indicate that the central parts of the Koralm Complex have been exhumed by larger amounts than the northern and southern parts. This is also documented by the LPO evolution. Therefore, we assume that the Plattengneis shear zone formed during the exhumation of the Koralm Complex, and is related to the exhumation of high-pressure units in the footwall of this shear zone. Accordingly, the kinematics of the Plattengneis shear zone is rather extensional than thrust-related. The implications for the structural evolution of the Eastern Alps are shortly discussed.