初始应力各向异性土的弹塑性模型

剑桥模型沿球应力轴(p 轴)等向塑性体变硬化; 在日本广泛采用的关口 — 太田模型沿初始固结线( K0 线)不等向塑性体变硬化。三轴试验数据表明: 自 K0 状态向伸长方向剪切时, 前者方法计算的体积应变偏小, 而后者方法计算的体积应变偏大。 作者提出一种介于上述两者之间 、考虑初始应力各向异性(如 K0 固结)的不等向塑性体变硬化弹塑性模型。 为了使模型在三维应力下较好地反映土的强度和变形特性, 模型的剪切屈服准则使用 SMP 准则。模型的土性参数与剑桥模型一样, 其预测值与粘土实测值的比较表明, 提出的模型是简单合理的, 可望在实际工程计算中得到使用。     

Modelling regional effects of artificial groundwater recharge in a multilayer aquifer characterized by perched water tables

This paper presents an approach to estimate the effects of a managed recharge experiment in a multilayer aquifer characterized by the presence of perched water tables in the Medina del Campo groundwater body, Douro basin, central Spain. A numerical model was developed to evaluate the effect of artificial recharge on the shallow sector of a regional-scale aquifer and on formerly active wetlands. The model was developed in the Visual MODFLOW Pro v.2011.1 environment in order to represent and analyse the regional impact of this artificial recharge event. Results suggest that the assumption of a single perched system may prove useful in regional contexts where data is limited. From a study site perspective, managed recharge is observed to increase shallow storage along the riverbanks, which is considered valuable for environmental purposes. However, downstream wetlands are unlikely to experience a significant recovery. Furthermore, only a small percentage of artificial recharge is expected to reach the deep regional aquifer. This method can be exported to settings characterized by the presence of perched aquifers and associated groundwater dependent ecosystems.     

Molybdenum Mass Fractions and Isotopic Compositions of International Geological Reference Materials

The double‐spike method with multi‐collector inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry was used to measure the Mo mass fractions and isotopic compositions of a set of geological reference materials including the mineral molybdenite, seawater, coral, as well as igneous and sedimentary rocks. The long‐term reproducibility of the Mo isotopic measurements, based on two‐year analyses of NIST SRM 3134 reference solutions and seawater samples, was ≤ 0.07‰ (two standard deviations, 2s, n = 167) for δ^98/95Mo. Accuracy was evaluated by analyses of Atlantic seawater, which yielded a mean δ^98/95Mo of 2.03 ± 0.06‰ (2s, n = 30, relative to NIST SRM 3134 = 0‰) and mass fraction of 0.0104 ± 0.0006 μg g^?1 (2s, n = 30), which is indistinguishable from seawater samples taken world‐wide and measured in other laboratories. The comprehensive data set presented in this study serves as a reference for quality assurance and interlaboratory comparison of high‐precision Mo mass fractions and isotopic compositions.     

应用改进的相干算法提高三维地震资料解释精度

作者在文中详细探讨了C1、C2和C3三种相干算法及其。根据三维地震数据体的特点提出了实用的相干算法，并编制了相应的软件。我们对三种相干算法对应相干数据体的解释结果进行了细致的分析，C2相干算法基本能够平衡提高横向分辨率和信噪比之间的矛盾，而C3相干算法则取得了更精确的效果。     

卫星遥感在监视地震中的可应用性

阐述了卫星遥感技术及其产品在地震监视中的可应用性。已有震例的研究结果表明 ,震中附近存在着显著的震前地表增热现象。利用 RS热红外卫星遥感资料地气系统射出长波辐射信息 (即 OL R值 ) ,不仅可以有效地预测未来地震发生的区域 ,还可以对地表监测项目 (如地磁、地下流体、形变等 )中资料的可靠程度作出诊断。采用卫星遥感系统与地面监视系统的“融合”,形成空间与地面相结合的多源观测信息支撑的地震监视体系 ,将有助于提高我国的震情监视和预测能力     

Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of the scaling properties and correlation structure of a data set of rainfall time series, aggregated over different temporal resolutions, and observed in 70 raingauges across the Basilicata and Calabria regions of southern Italy, is investigated. Two types of random cascade model, namely canonical and microcanonical models, were used for each raingauge and selected season. For both models, different hypotheses concerning dependency of parameters on time scale and rainfall height can be adopted. In particular, a new approach is proposed which consists of several combinations of models with a different scale dependence of parameters for different temporal resolutions. The goal is to improve the modelling of the main features of rainfall time series, especially for cases where the variability of rainfall changes irregularly with temporal aggregation. The results obtained with the new methodology showed good agreement with the observed data, in particular, for the summer months. In fact, during this season, rainfall heights aggregated at fine temporal resolutions (from 5 to 20 min) are more similar (relative to the winter season) to the values cumulated on 1 or 3 h (due to convective phenomena) and, consequently, the process of rainfall breakdown is nearly stationary for a range of finer temporal resolutions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari     

Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas

The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future development of the glaciers and the runoff using an ensemble of downscaled climate model data in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. The analysis shows that both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase which results in a steady decline of the glacier area. The river flow is projected to increase significantly due to the increased precipitation and ice melt and the transition towards a rain river. Rain runoff and base flow will increase at the expense of glacier runoff. However, as the melt water peak coincides with the monsoon peak, no shifts in the hydrograph are expected.     

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.     

Eoalpine tectonics of the Eastern Alps: implications from the evolution of monometamorphic Austroalpine units (Schneeberg and Radenthein Complex)

Monometamorphic metasediments of Paleozoic or Mesozoic age constituting Schneeberg and Radenthein Complex experienced coherent deformation and metamorphism during Late Cretaceous times. Both complexes are part of the Eoalpine high-pressure wedge that formed an intracontinental suture and occur between the polymetamorphosed Ötztal–Bundschuh nappe system on top and the Texel–Millstatt Complex below. During Eoalpine orogeny Schneeberg and Radenthein Complexes were south-dipping and they experienced a common tectonometamorphic history from ca. 115 Ma onwards until unroofing of the Tauern Window in Miocene times. This evolution is subdivided into four distinct tectonometamorphic phases. Deformation stage D1 is characterized by WNW-directed shearing at high temperature conditions (550–600°C) and related to the initial exhumation of the high-pressure wedge. D2 and D3 are largely coaxial and evolved during high- to medium-temperature conditions (ca. 450 to ≥550°C). These stages are related to advanced exhumation and associated with large-scale folding of the high-pressure wedge including the Ötztal-Bundschuh nappe system above and the Texel–Millstatt Complex below. For the area west of the Tauern Window, F2/F3 fold interference results in the formation of large-scale sheath-folds in the frontal part of the nappe stack (formerly called “Schlingentektonik” by previous authors). Earlier thrusts were reactivated during Late Cretaceous normal faulting at the base of the Ötztal–Bundschuh nappe system and its cover. Deformation stage D4 is of Oligo-Miocene age and accounted for tilting of individual basement blocks along large-scale strike-slip shear zones. This tilting phase resulted from indentation of the Southern Alps accompanied by the formation of the Tauern Window.