Observational Evidence of Recent Change in the Northern High-Latitude Environment

Studies from a variety of disciplines documentrecentchange in the northern high-latitude environment.Prompted by predictions of an amplified response oftheArctic to enhanced greenhouse forcing, we present asynthesis of these observations. Pronounced winter andspring warming over northern continents since about 1970ispartly compensated by cooling over the northern NorthAtlantic. Warming is also evident over the centralArcticOcean. There is a downward tendency in sea ice extent,attended by warming and increased areal extent of theArctic Ocean's Atlantic layer. Negative snow coveranomalies have dominated over both continents sincethelate 1980s and terrestrial precipitation has increasedsince 1900. Small Arctic glaciers have exhibitedgenerally negative mass balances. While permafrost haswarmed in Alaska and Russia, it has cooled in easternCanada. There is evidence of increased plant growth,attended by greater shrub abundance and northwardmigration of the tree line. Evidence also suggeststhatthe tundra has changed from a net sink to a net sourceofatmospheric carbon dioxide.Taken together, these results paint a reasonablycoherent picture of change, but their interpretationassignals of enhanced greenhouse warming is open todebate.Many of the environmental records are either short,areof uncertain quality, or provide limited spatialcoverage. The recent high-latitude warming is also nolarger than the interdecadal temperature range duringthis century. Nevertheless, the general patterns ofchange broadly agree with model predictions. Roughlyhalfof the pronounced recent rise in Northern Hemispherewinter temperatures reflects shifts in atmosphericcirculation. However, such changes are notinconsistentwith anthropogenic forcing and include generallypositive phases of the North Atlantic and ArcticOscillations and extratropical responses to theEl-NiñoSouthern Oscillation. An anthropogenic effect is alsosuggested from interpretation of the paleoclimaterecord,which indicates that the 20th century Arctic is thewarmest of the past 400 years.     

Statistically downscaled projections of snow/rain partitioning for Alaska

Adaptation planning in Alaska, as in other snowy parts of the world, will require snow projections, yet snow is a challenging variable to measure, simulate and downscale. Here we describe the construction and evaluation of 771‐m‐resolution gridded historical and statistically downscaled projections of snow/rain partitioning for the state of Alaska at decadal temporal resolution. The method developed here uses observational data to describe the relationship between average monthly temperature and the fraction of wet days in that month receiving snow, the snow‐day fraction. Regionally and seasonally specific equations were developed to accommodate variability in synoptic scale climatology of rain and snow events. These equations were then applied to gridded decadal temperature data and projections. The gridded products provide a reasonable characterization of snow‐day fraction throughout the state. However, there are local deviations from the regional relationships, particularly in the topographically complex areas ringing the Gulf of Alaska and Cook Inlet. When applied to questions about changing precipitation regimes in northern, western and south‐eastern Alaska, these data demonstrate the potential for marked changes from snow‐dominated to mixed precipitation regimes and also exhibit a wide range of potential future conditions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dominant patterns of winter Arctic surface wind variability

Dominant statistical patterns of winter Arctic surface wind(WASW) variability and their impacts on Arctic sea ice motion are investigated using the complex vector empirical orthogonal function(CVEOF) method. The results indicate that the leading CVEOF of Arctic surface wind variability, which accounts for 33% of the covariance, is characterized by two different and alternating spatial patterns(WASWP1 and WASWP2). Both WASWP1 and WASWP2 show strong interannual and decadal variations, superposed on their declining trends over past decades. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with WASWP1 and WASWP2 exhibit, respectively, equivalent barotropic and some baroclinic characteristics, differing from the Arctic dipole anomaly and the seesaw structure anomaly between the Barents Sea and the Beaufort Sea. On decadal time scales, the decline trend of WASWP2 can be attributed to persistent warming of sea surface temperature in the Greenland—Barents—Kara seas from autumn to winter, reflecting the effect of the Arctic warming. The second CVEOF, which accounts for 18% of the covariance, also contains two different spatial patterns(WASWP3 and WASWP4). Their time evolutions are significantly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) index and the central Arctic Pattern, respectively, measured by the leading EOF of winter sea level pressure(SLP) north of 70°N. Thus, winter anomalous surface wind pattern associated with the NAO is not the most important surface wind pattern. WASWP3 and WASWP4 primarily reflect natural variability of winter surface wind and neither exhibits an apparent trend that differs from WASWP1 or WASWP2. These dominant surface wind patterns strongly influence Arctic sea ice motion and sea ice exchange between the western and eastern Arctic. Furthermore, the Fram Strait sea ice volume flux is only significantly correlated with WASWP3. The results demonstrate that surface and geostrophic winds are not interchangeable in terms of describing wind field variability over the Arctic Ocean. The results have important implications for understanding and investigating Arctic sea ice variations: Dominant patterns of Arctic surface wind variability, rather than simply whether there are the Arctic dipole anomaly and the Arctic Oscillation(or NAO), effectively affect the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice anomalies.     

Imprudent fishing harvests and consequent trophic cascades on the West Florida shelf over the last half century: A harbinger of increased human deaths from paralytic shellfish poisoning along the southeastern United States, in response to oligotrophication?

Within the context of ubiquitous overfishing of piscivores, recent consequent increments of jellyfish and clupeids have occurred at the zooplanktivore trophic level in the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), after overfishing of one of their predators, i.e. red snapper. Initiation of a local trophic cascade thence led to declines of herbivore stocks, documented here on the West Florida shelf. These exacerbating world-wide trophic cascades have resulted in larger harmful algal blooms (HABs), already present at the base of most coastal food webs. Impacts on human health have thus far been minimal within nutrient-rich coastal regions. To provide a setting for past morbidities, consideration is given to chronologies of other trophic cascades within eutrophic, cold water marine ecosystems of the Scotian Sea, in the Gulf of Alaska, off Southwest Africa, within the Barents, White, and Black Seas, in the Gulf of Maine, and finally in the North Sea. Next, comparison is now made here of recent ten-fold increments within Florida waters of both relatively benign and saxitoxic HABs, some of which are fatal to humans. These events are placed in a perspective of other warm shelf systems of the South China and Caribbean Seas to assess prior and possible future poison toxicities of oligotrophic coastal habitats. Past wide-spread kills of fishes and sea urchins over the Caribbean Sea and the downstream GOM are examined in relation to the potential transmission of dinoflagellate saxitoxin and other epizootic poison vectors by western boundary currents over larger “commons” than local embayments. Furthermore, since some HABs produce more potent saxitoxins upon nutrient depletion, recent decisions to ban seasonal fertilizer applications to Florida lawns may have unintended consequences. In the future, human-killing phytoplankton, rather than relatively benign fish-killing HABs of the past, may be dispersed along the southeastern United States seaboard.     

Uncertainties in determining microbial biomass C using the chloroform fumigation–extraction method

We tested the accuracy of the chloroform fumigation–extraction method, which is commonly used to determine soil biomass C concentrations. Accurate and precise determination of total microbial biomass is important in order to characterize soil properties and to develop predictive metal transport models for soils. Two natural soils, and individual soil components, including silica sand, montmorillonite, kaolinite, a humic acid, and Bacillus subtilis bacterial cells, were fumigated for 24 h. Following the fumigation, C from fumigated and unfumigated samples was extracted using a 0.5 M K₂SO₄ solution. The difference between the C content in the fumigated and unfumigated samples ideally represents C due to biomass because the fumigation procedure should lyse cells and release biomass C. We observed increased C release upon fumigation for bacteria-only samples, confirming the ability of fumigation to lyse cells. There was no difference in extracted C concentration between fumigated and unfumigated samples of silica sand and of humic acid, confirming that the fumigation process does not introduce additional organic C to samples of these soil components. However, the fumigated clay samples both showed increased C release relative to the unfumigated controls, indicating that significant concentrations of the fumigant, chloroform, adsorbed onto the clay minerals studied here. Additionally, we found significant chloroform remaining in the extracts from two fumigated natural soils. Attempts to remove the chloroform from the soils or soil components prior to extraction by increasing the evacuation time, or to remove chloroform in the extracts by sparging them vigorously with nitrogen gas, both failed. This research reveals that chloroform gas may adsorb significantly to clays and the clay fraction of natural soils. Thus, the fumigation–extraction method must be corrected to account for the added chloroform C and accurately assess the concentration of biomass C in soils that contain significant concentrations of clays.     

Quantitative analysis of Cenozoic faults and fractures and their impact on groundwater flow in the bedrock aquifers of Ireland

Faults and fractures are a critical store and pathway for groundwater in Ireland’s limestone bedrock aquifers either directly as conductive structures or indirectly as the locus for the development of karst conduits. From the quantitative analysis of post-Devonian faults and fractures in a range of lithological sequences, this report describes the principal characteristics of Cenozoic strike-slip faults and joints, the youngest and the most intrinsically conductive fractures within Irish bedrock. Analysis of these structures in more than 120 outcrop, quarry, mine and cave locations in a range of bedrock types, provides a basis for: (1) definition of quantitative models for their depth dependency, lithological control, scaling systematics and links to preexisting structure, (2) conceptualisation of their impact on groundwater behaviour, and (3) estimation of groundwater flow parameters. The quantitative models provide constraints on fracture-controlled flow connectivity. Commonly observed decreases in sustainable flows and water strike interceptions with depth are attributed to increasing confinement and decreasing fracture connectivity and dissolution. Faults and joints have quite different end member geometries, with faults having strongly heterogeneous scale-independent properties and joints more often showing scale-dependent stratabound properties. The highest and most sustainable groundwater flows are usually associated with the complexity of structure of Cenozoic faults and of preexisting Carboniferous structures (on which conductive fracturing localises), enhanced by karstification and strongly jointed limestone bedrock particularly in the near-surface. Increased groundwater flow is promoted within bedded, rather than massive (i.e. unbedded), limestone sequences, characterised by bedding-parallel fractures and karst connecting otherwise subvertical fractures and subvertical wells.

     

A preliminary methods comparison for measurement of dissolved organic nitrogen in seawater

Routine determination of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) is performed in numerous laboratories around the world using one of three families of methods: UV oxidation (UV), persulfate oxidation (PO), or high temperature combustion (HTC). Essentially all routine methods measure total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and calculate DON by subtracting the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). While there is currently no strong suggestion that any of these methods is inadequate, there are continuing suspicions of slight inaccuracy by UV methods.This is a report of a broad community methods comparison where 29 sets (7 UV, 13 PO, and 9 HTC) of TDN analyses were performed on five samples with varying TDN and DIN concentrations. Analyses were done in a “blind” procedure with results sent to the first author. With editing out one set of extreme outliers (representing 5 out of 145 ampoules analyzed), the community comparability for analyzing the TDN samples was in the 8–28% range (coefficient of variation representing one standard deviation for the five individual samples by 28 analyses). When DIN concentrations were subtracted uniformly (single DIN value for each sample), the comparability was obviously worse (19–46% cv). This comparison represents a larger and more diverse set of analyses, but the overall comparability is only marginally better than that of the Seattle workshop of a decade ago. Grouping methods, little difference was seen other than inconclusive evidence that the UV methods gave TDN values for several of the samples higher than HTC methods. Since there was much scatter for each of the groups of methods and for all analyses when grouped, it is thought that more uniformity in procedures is probably needed. An important unplanned observation is that variability in DIN analyses (used in determining the final analyte in most UV and PO methods) is essentially as large as the variability in the TDN analyses.This exercise should not be viewed as a qualification exercise for the analysts, but should instead be considered a broad preliminary test of the comparison of the families of methods being used in various laboratories around the world. Based on many independent analyses here, none of the routinely used methods appears to be grossly inaccurate, thus, most routine TDN analyses being reported in the literature are apparently accurate. However, it is not reassuring that the ability of the international community to determine DON in deep oceanic waters continues to be poor. It is suggested that as an outgrowth of this paper, analysts using UV and PO methods experiment and look more carefully at the completeness of DIN conversion to the final analyte and also at the accuracy of their analysis of the final analyte. HTC methods appear to be relatively easy and convenient and have potential for routine adoption. Several of the authors of this paper are currently working together on an interlaboratory comparison on HTC methodology.     

An Assessment of Snow Avalanche Paths and Forest Dynamics Using Ikonos Satellite Data

Abstract

Ikonos panchromatic and multispectral satellite data were acquired in October 2000 and August 2002 for a test area along US Highway 2, the southern border of Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana, USA. The research goals were to map snow avalanche paths and to characterize vegetation patterns in selected paths for longitudinal (i.e., source, track, and runout) and transverse (i.e., inner, flanking, outer) zones as part of a study of forest dynamics and nutrient flux from paths into terrestrial and aquatic systems. In some valleys, as much as 50 percent of the area may be covered by snow avalanche paths, and as such, serve as an important carbon source servicing terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Snow avalanches move woody debris down‐slope by snapping, tipping, trimming, and excavating branches, limbs, and trees, and by injuring and scaring trees that remain in‐place. Further, snow avalanches alter the vegetation structure on paths through secondary plant succession of disturbed areas. Contrast and edge enhancements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Tasseled Cap greenness and wetness transformations were used to examine vegetation patterns in selected paths that were affected by high magnitude snow avalanches during the winter of 2001-2002. Using image transects organized in longitudinal patterns in paths and in forests, and transects arranged in transverse patterns across the sampled paths, the Tasseled Cap transforms (and NDVI values) were plotted and assessed. Preliminary results suggest that NDVI patterns are different for paths and forests, and Tasseled Cap greenness and wetness patterns are different for longitudinal and transverse zones that describe the morphology of snow avalanche paths. The differentiation of paths from the background forest and the characterization of paths by morphometric zones through remote sensing has implications for mapping forest disturbances and dynamics over time and for large geographic areas and for modeling nutrient flux in terrestrial and aquatic systems.     

JAMSTEC-IARC international collaboration enhancing understanding of the Arctic climate system

Collaborations amongst researchers from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Japan and the International Arctic research Center (IARC), University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), U.S., have been on-going since 1998 and resulted in a great number and magnitude of accomplishments that could not have been achieved without this close partnership. The Arctic represents an important region for Japan, the U.S. and the world, and many opportunities and challenges press for immediate understanding to enable wise decisions and policy making. We have many common interests and our countries face many common problems and goals. Addressing the tremendous scientific challenges of the Arctic requires such massive investment of manpower and resources that sharing efforts, data and working together on expeditions are in our mutual best interests.This issue presents a compilation of selected results on recent analyses conducted in the five-year (2009–2014) research term related to observational studies, model development and remote sensing applications of the Arctic Ocean, adjacent marginal seas, and the surrounding terrestrial regions. All of these studies are intended to provide a better understanding of how individual components and processes interact to form a complex and dynamic arctic system. Through these collaborations, Japanese and UAF Arctic researchers can achieve our goals of developing a quantitative understanding of the Arctic System.