北京地区细菌性痢疾医疗气象预报模式及流行风险水平评估

研究了北京市海淀区2004～2006年全年逐日细菌性痢疾发病率与地面气象要素的相关关系.结果发现,细菌性痢疾发病与水汽压(空气绝对湿度)高度相关,单相关系数平均可达0.85以上.在所有候选预报因子中,它的方差贡献可占80%.采用多元回归概率分级技术,建立了细菌性痢疾医疗气象预报及风险水平评估模式.该模式预报结果可为各级疾病预防控制中心指导广大城乡居民卫生防疫提供科学依据.     

Eclogite and carpholite-bearing metasedimentary rocks in the North Qilian suture zone, NW China: implications for Early Palaeozoic cold oceanic subduction and water transport into mantle

Low‐temperature eclogite and eclogite facies metapelite together with serpentinite and marble occur as blocks within foliated blueschist that was originated from greywacke matrix; they formed a high‐pressure low‐temperature (HPLT) subduction complex (mélange) in the North Qilian oceanic‐type suture zone, NW China. Phengite–eclogite (type I) and epidote–eclogite (type II) were recognized on the basis of mineral assemblage. Relic lawsonite and lawsonite pseudomorphs occur as inclusions in garnet from both types of eclogite. Garnet–omphacite–phengite geothermobarometry yields metamorphic conditions of 460–510 °C and 2.20–2.60 GPa for weakly deformed eclogite, and 475–500 °C and 1.75–1.95 GPa for strongly foliated eclogite. Eclogite facies metasediments include garnet–omphacite–phengite–glaucophane schist and various chloritoid‐bearing schists. Mg‐carpholite was identified in some high‐Mg chloritoid schists. P–T estimates yield 2.60–2.15 GPa and 495–540 °C for Grt–Omp–Phn–Gln schist, and 2.45–2.50 GPa and 525–530 °C for the Mg‐carpholite schist. Mineral assemblages and P–T estimates, together with isotopic ages, suggest that the oceanic lithosphere as well as pelagic to semi‐pelagic sediments have been subducted to the mantle depths (≥75 km) before 460 Ma. Blueschist facies retrogression occurred at c. 454–446 Ma and led to eclogite deformation and dehydration of lawsonite during exhumation. The peak P–Tconditions for eclogite and metapelite in the North Qilian suture zone demonstrate the existence of cold subduction‐zone gradients (6–7 °C km^?1), and this cold subduction brought a large amount of H₂O to the deep mantle in the Early Palaeozoic times.     

Estimating the Budgets of Nutrients for Phytoplankton Bloom in the Central Yellow Sea Using a Modified Lower Tropic Ecosystem ModelDOI 10.1007/s11802-014-1900-6

A modified lower trophic ecosystem model(NEMURO) is coupled with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for an application in the central Yellow Sea. The model is used to simulate the horizontal distributions and annual cycles of chlorophyll-a and nutrients with results consistent with historical observations. Generally, during the winter background and spring bloom periods, the exchange with neighboring waters constitutes the primary sources of nutrients. Howerver, during the winter background period, the input of silicate from the layer deeper than 50 m is the most important source that contributes up to 60% to the total sources. During the spring bloom period, the transport across the thermocline makes significant contribution to the input of phosphate and silicate. During the post spring bloom period, the relative contribution of relevant processes varies for different nutrients. For ammonium, atmospheric deposition, excretion of zooplankton and decomposition of particulate and dissolved nitrogen make similar contributions. For phosphate and silicate, the dominant input is the transport across the thermocline, accounting for 62% and 68% of the total sources, respectively. The N/P ratio averaged annually and over the whole southern Yellow Sea is up to 51.8, indicating the potential of P limitation in this region. The important influence of large scale sea water circulation is revealed by both the estimated fluxes and the corresponding N/P ratio of nutrients across a section linking the northeastern bank of the Changjiang River and Cheju Island. During the winter background period, the input of nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate by the Yellow Sea Warm Current is estimated to be 4.6×1010, 2.3×1010, 2.0×109 and 1.2×1010 mol, respectively.     

发达地区创意产业网络的驱动机理与创新影响——以上海创意设计业为例

内城新经济研究认为创意企业对网络组织更有依赖,但是对于网络的关键动力则众说纷纭。中国发达地区创意产业网络是否存在,其驱动机理在哪里?这正是研究初衷。以上海9个创意产业集聚区为研究区域,以创意设计业为研究对象,利用74 份企业问卷和16 家企业深度访谈采集数据,并运用SPSS统计分析工具进行研究。结果表明,基于投入产出关系的产业链分工协作仍然是网络驱动的重要逻辑,以人才、信息与知识流为核心的创意链正在形成。上下游企业协作有利于集体学习,它们之间的强联结对提高企业创意能力具有显著影响,然而从影响方式来看,关系内容远比关系强度更重要。“客户”和“高校”是地方网络的重要驱动主体,并以不同方式、不同程度地影响企业区位和创意能力。     

加水热模拟中深湖与煤系泥岩地化特征比较

通过深湖泥岩和煤系泥岩的加水热模拟研究认为,在热模拟实验过程中,深湖泥岩和煤系泥岩显示不同特征,并且其演化有差别。深湖泥岩利于液态原油的生成,并且转化率高于煤系泥岩。深湖泥岩残余可溶有机质饱和烃含量高于煤系泥岩,非烃含量则低于煤系泥岩。深湖泥岩胶质 /沥青质和饱芳比均随温度升高而降低,而煤系泥岩的胶质 /沥青质随温度升高有增加趋势,其饱芳比的变化则不大或有降低趋势。深湖泥岩的T_max难以指示演化阶段,其干酪根碳同位素值明显轻于煤系泥岩,它们的值均随温度的升高而变重。     

利用泥芯中稀土元素示踪青铜器的产地

从青铜器上所残留的陶范或泥芯出发，探讨利用泥芯示踪青铜器产地的可行性。采用等离子体发射光谱法测试了湖北、陕西、内蒙古和辽宁等地古代遗址出土陶范、泥芯等冶铸遗物的稀土元素，并分析比较了各自特征。在此基础上，对湖北枣阳九连墩和荆门左冢楚墓群出土青铜器上的泥芯进行稀土元素分析，为这些青铜器的铸造地提供信息。研究结果显示，各地陶范和泥芯的稀土元素特征有一定差异，通过分析青铜器上所残留的泥芯或陶范中稀土元素的地球化学特征，可以示踪古代青铜器的产地，即铸造地。     

A possible role of solar radiation and ocean in the mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon climate

An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) are asynchronously coupled to simulate the climate of the mid-Holocene period. The role of the solar radiation and ocean in the mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon climate is analyzed and some mechanisms are revealed. At the forcing of changed solar radiation induced by the changed orbital parameters and the changed SST simulated by the OGCM, compared with when there is orbital forcing alone, there is more precipitation and the monsoon is stronger in the summer of East Asia, and the winter temperature increases over China. These agree better with the reconstructed data. It is revealed that the change of solar radiation can displace northward the ITCZ and the East Asia subtropical jet, which bring more precipitation over the south of Tibet and North and Northeast China. By analyzing the summer meridional latent heat transport, it is found that the influence of solar radiation change is mainly to increase the convergence of atmosphere toward the land, and the influence of SST change is mainly to transport more moisture to the sea surface atmosphere. Their synergistic effect on East Asian precipitation is much stronger than the sum of their respective effects.     

内蒙古西部额济纳旗及邻区上石炭统—下二叠统阿木山组火山岩的地球化学特征

分析了上石炭统小独山阶—下二叠统紫松阶阿木山组玄武岩地球化学特征,对玄武岩类型、岩石特征、构造环境等进行了探讨,结合前人的研究成果,阐述了石炭纪—二叠纪盆地的基本性质。Zr/TiO2-Nb/Y、SiO2-TFeO/MgO和Zr-Y-Nb图解显示,玄武岩类型主要为亚碱性的拉斑玄武岩;稀土元素球粒陨石配分模式为右倾曲线,(La/Yb）N值较高,轻重稀土元素分馏较强,(Gd/Lu）N值相对较低,重稀土元素分馏较弱,δEu在0.87~1.11之间,无明显Eu异常;N-MORB标准化的微量元素蛛网图显示,K2O、Rb、Ba、Th等不相容元素富集,Hf、Nb、Y等亏损。Zr-Zr/Y和Ta/Hf-Th/Hf构造环境图解表明,该玄武岩产于陆内裂谷,指示晚石炭世—早二叠世额济纳旗及其邻区已进入了陆内演化阶段,为拉张作用下的陆内裂谷（裂陷）盆地。     

对正热电离质谱法硼同位素测定的实验设计和条件优化

为了确定正热电离质谱法测定硼同位素时的最佳实验条件 ,采用均匀设计法进行实验表头设计 ,并用MATLAB进行数据处理和回归模型优化。将最佳优化条件应用于硼同位素测定中 ,得到了与理论计算相吻合的高精度测定结果。     

On the spatial characteristic of the short term and imminent anomalies of underground water behaviors before strong earthquake

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