济阳坳陷孤南洼陷低熟油成藏特征

孤南洼陷具有丰富的低熟油资源，低熟油中的生物标志物以高伽玛蜡烷含量，植烷优势，低成熟度为特征。下第三系沙一段是低熟油的源岩，其岩性为富含藻类有机质的油页岩，油泥岩，低熟油在平面上环生烃洼陷分布，剖面上层位集中在沙二－沙一段，断层控制了低熟油的运移距离和聚集层位，低熟油的成藏模式有3种，即自源侧向运移聚集成藏，自源断层垂向运聚成茂混合运取成藏模式。孤南洼陷低熟油盆地内部以侧向运移，侧向充注入岩性－断块圈闭为主，形成单源油藏。在断藏带原油是以垂向运移及垂向充注断块圈闭为主，形成混源油藏。     

黑龙江乌拉嘎金矿的次火山岩浆-热液成矿:熔体-流体包裹体证据

黑龙江乌拉嘎金矿是我国陆相火山岩区的重要金矿之一。构造位置处于古亚洲构造域与滨太平洋构造域交接复合部位的东北缘,矿体主要分布于团结沟斜长花岗斑岩接触带部位的隐爆角砾岩带和黑龙江群变质岩的层间裂隙中。斜长花岗斑岩的石英斑晶中发育3类包裹体:熔体包裹体、原生的L-V包裹体(及少量的L-V-S包裹体)和次生的L-V包裹体。玻璃质熔体包裹体相当于酸性殘浆的成分(SiO2达69.5%～73.8%),其捕获温度大于800℃。石英斑晶中次生L-V包裹体均一温度集中在210～350℃、盐度5%～7%NaCleqv,代表了次火山岩浆热液的特征,与黄铁矿-早期白色玉髓状石英阶段中Q1的包裹体均一温度范围很接近,而盐度略高于白色玉髓状石英Q1的。乌拉嘎金矿的金成矿可划分3个成矿阶段,发育盐水溶液包裹体:(1)黄铁矿-早期白色玉髓状石英阶段,包裹体均一温度为154～355℃,集中在190～330℃,盐度为1.3%～8.2%NaCleqv,密度为0.53～0.88g/cm3。(2)烟灰色玉髓状石英-多金属硫化物阶段,石英中包裹体均一温度为159～196℃,集中在170～190℃,盐度为2.2%～3.2%NaCleqv,密度0.79～0.92g/cm3。(3)碳酸盐-石英阶段,方解石中包裹体均一温度集中在170～270℃;盐度0.5%～2.9%NaCleqv。成矿流体以中低温、低盐度、贫CO2的盐水体系为特征,与国内外陆相火山-次火山热液矿床十分相似。石英斑晶中熔体、流体包裹体及其共存反映了次火山岩浆活动晚期,由硅酸盐熔体通过不混溶产生含矿的盐水溶液的可能,说明了金成矿与斑岩的成因联系,乌拉嘎金矿应该属于陆相火山-次火山活动有关的中低温浅成热液金矿床。     

ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURE EVOLUTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

Fifty-eight extratropical transition (ET) cases in the years 2000-2008, including 2,021 observations (at 6-hour intervals), over the western North Pacific are analyzed using the cyclone phase space (CPS) method, in an effort to get the characteristics of the structure evolution and environmental conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs) during ET over this area. Cluster analysis of the CPS dataset shows that strong TCs are more likely to undergo ET. ET begins with the increment of thermal asymmetry in TCs, along with the generation and intensification of an upper-level cold core, and ends with the occurrence of a lower-level cold core. ET lasts an average duration of about 28 hours. Dynamic composite analysis of the environmental field of different clusters shows that, in general, when TCs move northward, they are gradually embedded in the westerlies and gradually transform into extratropical cyclones under the influence of the mid- and higher-latitude baroclinic systems. As for those TCs which complete ET, there is always much greater potential vorticity gradient in the northwest of them and obvious water vapor transport channels in the environment.     

Cracking behaviors and strength of rock-like samples with steps of different geometries under shear stress

Steps are distinctive features for estimating the movement of the upper and lower block of faults. However, studies about the influence of steps as a special type of discontinuity on cracking behaviors and strength of rock masses are limited. In this research, rock-like samples with steps and preexisting flaws were fabricated. Step height h and the inclination angle of gentle slope of the step α were set to different values. Direct shear tests were conducted on these samples under different normal stresses. The experimental results reveal that the inclination angle of the gentle slope of the step α, step height h, and normal stress have an influence on the strength, crack initiation, and crack propagation of the samples. The experimental results show that crack behaviors and shear strength were affected by step inclination angles α and step height h. As the normal stress increases, the improvement of the strength of samples with a large step height is larger than that of samples with a small step height, the improvement of the strength of samples with α of 10° is larger than that of samples with α of 0° and-10°. The discrete element method was used to simulate the shear test. Numerical results show five different types of displacement vectors, which can be used to determine whether the cracks are tensile cracks or shear cracks. The above conclusions can provide help for estimating mechanical properties and failure modes of rock masses with steps of different geometries.     

典型干旱地区陆面特征的模拟及分析

运用NCAR -LSM (Landsurfacemodel)模式对典型干旱区—沙漠站进行了独立试验 (Off line) ,检验了LSM模式在典型干旱地区的性能 ,并分析了典型干旱地区的陆面特征。结果表明 :LSM模式对干旱地区有较好的模拟性能。在不同的季节 ,典型干旱地区的感热和潜热有着不同的特征 ,4月份的感热通量较大 ,约为 4 0 0W·m-2 ;1月和 8月相对较小 ,约为 2 30W·m-2 。 1月和 4月的潜热通量很小 ,约为 4～ 6W·m-2 ,可以忽略 ;但 8月份的潜热通量大 ,平均最大约为 12 0W·m-2 ,当有降水发生时 ,潜热通量可达 5 70W·m-2 ,与感热通量相当。     

中国西天山季节性积雪热力特征分析

利用中国天山积雪雪崩站干、湿雪雪层内每隔5min一次的10层雪温数据,探讨了一次降雪过程后干、湿雪的雪层温度特征,对比分析了干、湿雪的雪面能量平衡方程中各分量的差异。结果表明:(1)整个冬半年积雪各层温度基本<0℃,雪温日变化振幅由雪面向下逐渐减小,积雪深层温度的波峰(谷)值稍滞后于积雪浅层温度极值1～2天。(2)湿雪冷中心的出现时间早于干雪,暖中心的出现时间晚于干雪,太阳辐射对湿雪的穿透深度大于干雪。(3)雪层温度振幅变化与能量吸收随雪深都呈指数衰减分布。积雪密度越大,吸收系数越小,穿透深度越大。(4)干雪雪面的感热通量和潜热通量几乎都为负值,积雪积累。湿雪雪面的潜热通量与感热通量方向相反,互相抵消,所以净辐射是导致湿雪消融的主要因素。     

20世纪长江流域3次全流域灾害性洪水事件的气象成因分析

20世纪长江流域曾出现上游洪水7次,中游洪水16次,下游洪水7次,其中有3次是全流域性洪水,分别发生在1998、1954和1931年。1998、1954和1931年梅雨期开始前(3~5月),长江流域降水比常年偏多。进入梅雨季以后,先后出现两场持续性暴雨:第1场出现在6月中旬至7月上旬,这场暴雨造成中下游河流的水位达到或超过警戒水位,出现局地洪涝;7月下旬长江中下游又出现1场持续性范围广的暴雨,雨水只能作为地面径流汇集到长江干流,造成很高水位的洪流。第2场持续性暴雨使长江上下游强降水时段在7月下旬重合,导致长江中下游干流洪水与来自上游的洪水在8月初至中旬遭遇,造成长江中下游灾难性的大洪水。1998、1954和1931年长江全流域性大洪水与东亚中高纬地区大气环流和东亚夏季风活动异常有联系。大气环流和东亚季风活动异常导致7月下旬西太平洋副热带高压的位置偏南,梅雨期持续到7月底,有利于长江中下游持续性暴雨发生的环流条件在7月下旬仍然存在。     

2006年“珍珠”台风影响期间福建省降水酸度分布特征分析

利用2006年"珍珠"台风影响福建省期间的酸雨监测资料和新一代天气雷达回波资料,对城市降水酸度分布特征及福州市短时段降水酸度进行分析,结果表明:来自海上的台风降水呈偏碱性;登陆后台风对福建省城市降水酸度的影响与其螺旋雨带上降水云团的移动路径及城市周边污染源分布有关;"珍珠"台风的短时段降水酸度并非保持恒定,对福州市降水酸度的影响会随着台风强度、风场结构的变化及螺旋雨带上降水云团途经下垫面城市大气污染排放状况而发生改变.     

WIND SHEAR IDENTIFICATION WITH THE RETRIEVED WIND OF DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR

Wind shear reflects that the wind field is not uniform, which is one of the primary factors which make the retrieval of the wind field difficult. Based on volume velocity process(VVP) wind field retrieval technique, the intensity of wind shear is identified in this paper. After analyzing the traditional techniques that rely on the difference of radial velocity to identify wind shear, a fixed difference among radial velocities that may cause false identification in a uniform wind field was found. Because of the non-uniformity in wind shear areas, the difference of retrieved results between surrounding analysis volumes can be used as a measurement to show how strong the wind shear is. According to the analysis of a severe convective weather process that occurred in Guangzhou, it can be found that the areas of wind shear appeared with the strength significantly larger than in other regions and the magnitude generally larger than4.5 m/(s·km). Besides, by comparing the variation of wind shear strength during the convection, it can be found that new cells will be more likely to generate when the strength is above 3.0 m/(s·km). Therefore, the analysis of strong wind shear's movement and development is helpful to forecasting severe convections.     

我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报技术进展与挑战

本文总结了2014年以来我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报业务的技术进展,讨论了未来发展所面临的关键技术难点。无缝隙精细化网格预报技术的发展,得益于综合气象观测数据和多源资料融合分析网格实况产品的支撑,更依赖于多尺度数值预报模式和实时快速更新同化预报系统的快速发展。经过近5年的探索和努力,我国已经初步建立了针对不同预报时效的无缝隙精细化网格预报技术体系。对于0～4 h预报时效,主要基于全国雷达拼图和GRAPES-Meso模式预报,发展临近分钟级滚动外推预报技术;对于4 h到30 d预报时效,主要通过对区域或全球不同时空分辨率模式预报进行偏差订正、客观解释应用以及降尺度分析,提高预报的准确度和精细度。与此同时,研发了自动化、智能化的交互式预报制作平台,以满足客观高效制作与预报员对极端或高影响天气主观预报优势相结合的需求。发展了以格点实况分析场为参照的空间分析检验方法,初步实现了对高分辨率网格预报的质量跟踪和性能评估。未来的网格预报技术体系,需要吸纳前沿的技术研究成果,包括人工智能应用技术、高级多模式统计后处理技术和协调一致性关键技术等,并且建立统一完整的技术架构和开发标准等。