Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Production spectrum of gamma rays in interstellar space through neutral pion decay

We have obtained a simple representation to the observed invariant cross-section for the production of neutral pions in proton-proton collisions. Making use of this representation, we have calculated the differential and integral production spectra of gamma rays in the Galaxy from interactions of cosmic ray nuclei with interstellar gas. It is shown that the uncertainties in deducing interstellar proton spectrum by demodulating the observed spectrum do not affect very much the gamma ray spectrum. We have also determined the gamma ray production spectrum through bremsstrahlung process for a typical interstellar electron spectrum derived from the radio spectrum in the Galaxy. From these, the total gamma ray production spectrum resulting from the interaction of cosmic rays with interstellar matter is compared with the observed gamma ray spectrum in the Galaxy and some inferences have been obtained. We also point out the possible uncertainty in the present calculation and suggest the improvements needed.     

Location-based environmental factors contributing to rainfall-triggered debris flows in the Ba river catchment,northwest Viti Levu island,Fiji

Mass movements in tropical Pacific small island developing states (SIDS) can be devastating although studies are relatively few and contributing environmental factors are not often investigated in detail. On 25 January 2012, following 3 days of heavy monsoonal rainfall (c. 550 mm) during a La Niña episode, more than 150 debris flows were triggered in the western part of the Ba river catchment of northwest Viti Levu island, Fiji. Reconnaissance field survey and geographical information system (GIS) analyses using high-resolution satellite imagery were carried out to investigate factors that may have led to the occurrence of the debris flows in the catchment. We evaluated the correlation between the density of mass movements (number of mass movements/km²) and several continuous variables using data measured within the GIS. There was a weak but significant positive correlation between mass movement density and elevation (r = 0.38, p value < 0.01), cyclonic precipitation (r = 0.37, p value < 0.01) and stream density (r = 0.31, p value < 0.01). Ninety-three percent of the mass movements occur within a plantation of Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) on slopes oriented mainly to the northeast and east on (trade) windward slopes and may be significant factors for their development. Although forests generally have a stabilizing effect on slopes, the plantation at Ba was a mature stand on its second plantation cycle and is a species that has a shallow rooting system making it more susceptible to failure.     

Transport and retention of suspended particulate matter and bacteria in the Humber-Ouse Estuary, United Kingdom, and their relationship to hypoxia and anoxia

Data are presented on dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and their relationship to salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), concentrations, and the turbidity maximum in the Humber-Ouse Estuary, United Kingdom, during summer 1995. Measurements in the upper Humber during March 1995 showed DO in the range 82% to 87% of saturation. Suspended particulate matter concentrations were <5000 mg l^?1 and salinity was in the range 0.5 to 12. In contrast, a pronounced DO sag occurred in the upper reaches of the Ouse during medium and spring tide, summer conditions. The DO minimum was essentially an anoxic level and was associated with the location of the turbidity maximum, at salinities between about 0.4 and 1.5. SPM concentrations at 1 m beneath the surface reached 25,000 mg l^?1 in the turbidity maximum, between about 20 km and 40 km from the tidal limit. Suspended particulate matter concentrations were much lower at neap tides, although dense suspensions of SPM (>60,000 mg l^?1) occurred within 1 m of the bed in the turbidity maximum region. A spring-neap record showed a dramatic and tidally controlled decrease in DO at very low salinities as the tides progressed from neaps to springs. An anchor station located down-channel of the turbidity maximum showed that about 95% of the variance in DO, which varied from 28% at low-water slack to 67% at high-water slack, could be explained in terms of salinity variation. At the up-channel margins of the turbidity maximum, DO increased from zero (anoxia) near high water to 60% near low water slack, in contrast to the behavior down-channel of the turbidity maximum. About 82% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variations alone. Only 43% of the DO variance could be explained in terms of SPM alone. Up-channel of the turbidity maximum, SPM concentrations were relatively low (<3000 mg l^?1) and DO levels varied from 48% of saturation near high water to 83% near low water slack. About 76% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variations alone. Within the turbidity maximum region, DO varied from <2% saturation on the early flood and late ebb and maximized around 7% at high water slack. About 63% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variation alone. This increased to 70% when suspended particulate matter was taken into account. Only 29% of the DO variance could be explained in terms of suspended particulate matter alone. Because bacteria were likely to have been the cause of the observed reduction in DO, the numbers of bacteria, both free-living and attached to particles, were measured in the turbidity maximum region. Numbers of free-living bacteria were low and most of the bacteria were attached to sediment particles. There was a linear correlation between total bacterial number and suspended particulate matter concentration, suggesting that the strong DO demand was exerted locally as a result of bacterial activity associated with increased suspended particulate matter concentrations. An order of magnitude analysis of DO consumption within the Ouse’s turbidity maximum, based on the premise that DO depletion was directly related to suspended particulate matter concentrations and that DO addition was due to reaeration, indicates that complete deoxygenation could have occurred with an oxygen depletion rate of ～0.01 mg DO h^?1/g suspended particulate matter during the residence time of waters within the turbidity maximum (～7 d). This rate was sufficiently fast that anoxic to aerobic conditions were able to develop a spring-neap periodicity within the turbidity maximum, but too slow to generate substantial intratidal fluctuations in DO. This is in accordance with the observations, which show that relatively little of the intratidal variance in DO could be explained in terms of suspended particulate matter fluctuations, whereas most of the variance could be explained in terms of salinity, which behaved as a surrogate measure for the proximity of the turbidity maximum.     

A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.     

Petrologic constraints on the decompression history of magma prior to Vulcanian explosions at the Soufrière Hills volcano,Montserrat

A series of 88 Vulcanian explosions occurred at the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, between August and October, 1997. Conduit conditions conducive to creating these and other Vulcanian explosions were explored via analysis of eruptive products and one-dimensional numerical modeling of magma ascent through a cylindrical conduit. The number densities and textures of plagioclase microlites were documented for twenty-three samples from the events. The natural samples all show very high number densities of microlites, and > 50% by number of microlites have areas < 20 μm². Pre-explosion conduit conditions and decompression history have been inferred from these data by comparison with experimental decompressions of similar groundmass compositions. Our comparisons suggest quench pressures < 30 MPa (origin depths < 2 km) and multiple rapid decompressions of > 13.75 MPa each during ascent from chamber to surface. Values are consistent with field studies of the same events and statistical analysis of explosion time-series data. The microlite volume number density trend with depth reveals an apparent transition from growth-dominated crystallization to nucleation-dominated crystallization at pressures of ∼ 7 MPa and lower. A concurrent sharp increase in bulk density marks the onset of significant open-system degassing, apparently due to a large increase in system permeability above ∼ 70% vesicularity. This open-system degassing results in a dense plug which eventually seals the conduit and forms conditions favorable to Vulcanian explosions. The corresponding inferred depth of overpressure at 250–700 m, near the base of the dense plug, is consistent with depth to center of pressure estimated from deformation measurements. Here we also illustrate that one-dimensional models representing ascent of a degassing, crystal-rich magma are broadly consistent with conduit profiles constructed via our petrologic analysis. The comparison between models and petrologic data suggests that the dense conduit plug forms as a result of high overpressure and open-system degassing through conduit walls.     

Managing land-use effects on Northland dune lakes: lessons from the past

The Northland region of New Zealand includes numerous high-value, macrophyte-dominated dune lakes. Recent water policy reforms offer limited guidance on managing for aquatic macrophytes. In addition, dune lake histories are poorly known as regular monitoring dates to 2005 AD. Here, ca. 4000 years of lake functional behaviour is reconstructed from sedimentary archives in two Northland dune lakes (Humuhumu and Rotokawau). Results demonstrated that macrophyte dominance is sensitive to catchment erosion and hydrological drawdown. Degradation of macrophyte communities occurred in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, earlier at Lake Humuhumu than Lake Rotokawau (post-1880 AD and post-1930 AD, respectively). In both lakes, increased erosional influx reduced macrophyte productivity, before later increases to wider trophic state (post-1970 AD). Lake-level decline is linked to increased nutrient loading at Lake Rotokawau but less so, Lake Humuhumu which is more strongly groundwater-fed. In Northland dune lakes, water-level reduction and erosional influx from land use have driven macrophyte degradation.     

Field calibration of a formula for entrance mixing of river inflows to lakes: Lake Taupo,North Island,New Zealand

Field measurements were used to validate predictions for the initial dilution of negatively buoyant, cold‐water inflows to Lake Taupo, as part of a study to quantify mixing processes associated with the two largest inflows to the lake. The predictions were made using a formulation originally derived for positively buoyant, warm‐water inflows to cooling ponds. The formulation predicts the total dilution of an inflow during its inertia‐dominated phase between its entrance to the lake and the point where buoyancy forces are great enough to cause the inflow to plunge and form a submerged density current. In one of the measured inflows, the inflowing jet was free to entrain from both sides; in the other, entrainment was restricted on one side by attachment of the inflowing jet to the shoreline of a bay just upstream of the plunge point. In the former example, the unmodified coefficients from the cooling pond formulation provided an excellent prediction of initial dilution. In the latter example, entrainment was reduced and different coefficients were derived. In both examples the inflows remained attached to the lake bed throughout their course until their liftoff at depths of 45–55 m to form interflows. The difference between coefficients for the two inflows indicates that the coefficient values should be considered site‐specific. The formulation is not valid for inflows that separate from the bottom of the inflow channel before plunging. The entrance mixing formulation was incorporated in a more general model of lake stratification, DYRESM, which already includes a well‐documented routine for routing underflows down submerged channels on the bed of a lake. Application of the model to the inflows measured in Lake Taupo gave good results for two model outputs that were not involved in the calibration of the entrance mixing formulation, but that are affected by the result of the initial dilution calculation—the temperatures in the river plume after it has plunged, and the insertion depth.     

2011年11月苏州一次灰霾天气过程分析

2011年11月10-14日苏州地区发生了一次严重灰霾天气过程,利用气象观测资料、探空资料及大气成分站监测资料对苏州三个站点的受污染情况进行了综合分析。结果表明：灰霾期间地面受弱气压场控制,风力较小,且有接地逆温的持续存在,大气水平和垂直输送都很弱,导致大量污染物在近地面堆积,能见度恶化;三站中昆山站灰霾持续时间最长,共计104时次,影响程度最重,重度灰霾占总数的39 %,中度和重度灰霾超过灰霾总数的一半;灰霾时各粒径颗粒物浓度均维持在较高水平,细粒子在可吸入颗粒物中占有较大比重,说明细粒子对灰霾贡献作用大,14日凌晨昆山及太仓出现大雾天气时细粒子比重甚至超过了灰霾时,而相对湿度峰值只有94 %,因此将该段天气定性为雾霾共存或者湿性霾更妥;秸秆焚烧污染期间,BC浓度明显上升,其绝对浓度要高出正常情况的3倍左右;通过CO/SO₂及PM₁₀/SO₂对比发现昆山站受秸秆焚烧污染程度要严重的多,因此推测昆山本地郊区可能也存在零星秸秆露天焚烧点。