气候变化中海洋和冰冻圈的变化、影响及风险

本文系统梳理了IPCC 《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)的主要结论,并对主要观点进行了解读。报告主要关注全球变暖背景下高山、极地、海洋和沿海地区现在和未来的变化及其对人类和生态系统的影响,以及实现气候适应发展路径的方案。在全球变暖背景下,冰冻圈大面积萎缩,冰川冰盖质量损失,积雪减少,北极海冰范围和厚度减小,多年冻土升温,全球海洋持续增温,1993年以来,海洋变暖和吸热速度增加了一倍以上。同时,海洋表面酸化加剧,海洋含氧量减少。全球平均海平面呈加速上升趋势,2006—2015年全球海平面上升速率为3.6 mm/yr,是1901—1990年的2.5倍,但存在区域差异。高山、极地和海洋的生态系统的物种组成、分布和服务功能均发生变化,并对人类社会产生了显著负面影响。极端海洋气候事件发生频率增多,强度加大。1982年以来,全球范围内海洋热浪的发生频率增加了一倍,且范围更广,持续时间更长。海平面持续上升加剧了洪涝、海水入侵、海岸侵蚀等海岸带灾害,并影响沿海生态系统。海洋及冰冻圈的变化及其影响在未来一定时期仍将持续,应对这些影响而面临的挑战,应加强基于生态系统的适应和可再生能源管理,强化海岸带地区的海平面上升综合应对,打造积极有效、可持续和具有韧性的气候变化应对方案。     

沉积物粒度组分空间预测的神经网络残余kriging方法

针对近海表层沉积物粒度组分空间变异的尺度差异性,提出了基于广义回归神经网络残余kriging的沉积物粒度组分空间预测方法,并以海州湾沉积物粒度数据为基础,分析了其在沉积物粒度组分空间预测和底质类型制图中的应用效果。结果表明,广义回归神经网络残余kriging方法能够获得比普通kriging方法更高的沉积物粒度组分空间预测精度,并且其底质类型的总体空间预测精度达到85%以上,相应的Kappa系数也在0.8以上,显示底质制图的预测类型与样本的实测类型具有较高的一致性。新方法对于开展定量化的沉积物粒度组分空间预测和底质类型制图具有参考价值。     

Wave Attenuation Performance and the Influencing Factors of A Lower Arc-Plate Breakwater

Comprehensive experimental and numerical studies have been undertaken to investigate wave energy dissipation performance and main influencing factors of a lower arc-plate breakwater. The numerical model, which considers nonlinear interactions between waves and the arc-plate breakwater, has been constructed by using the velocity wave- generating method, the volume of fluid (VOF) method and the finite volume method. The results show that the relative width, relative height and relative submergence of the breakwater are three main influencing factors and have significant influence on wave energy dissipation of the lower arc-plate open breakwater. The transmission coefficient is found to decrease with the increasing relative width, and the minimum transmission coefficient is 0.15 when the relative width is 0.45. The reflection coefficient is found to vary slightly with the relative width, and the maximum reflection coefficient is 0.53 when the relative width is 0.45. The transmission and reflection coefficients are shown to increase with the relative wave height for approximately 85% of the experimental tests when the relative width is 0.19 0.45. The transmission coefficients at relative submergences of 0.04, 0.02 and 0 are clearly shown to be greater than those at relative submergences of 0.02 and 0.04, while the reflection coefficient exhibits the opposite relationship. After the wave interacts with the lower arc-plate breakwater, the wave energy is mainly converted into transmission, reflection and dissipation energies. The wave attenuation performance is clearly weakened for waves with greater heights and longer periods.     

北部湾盆地涠西南凹陷古、新近系古生物记录及古环境意义

对北部湾盆地涠西南凹陷WZ5-X-Y井85份沉积样品开展了孢粉和藻类分析,探讨了钻孔所在区域古近纪—新近纪沉积环境的变化和植被类型的演替,并推断了气候条件的变化。研究结果显示,钻孔所在区域始新世—渐新世古湖泊发育,水域范围存在波动,渐新世整体上湖泊水域范围有所收缩,中新世湖泊进一步收缩,并持续受到海水入侵的影响。始新世钻井周边丘陵和低山地区发育以常绿栎和胡桃为主的常绿落叶阔叶混交林,湖泊周边生长桤木林,气候温暖湿润,渐新世的植被类型仍是以常绿落叶阔叶混交林为主,但是常绿林的缩小和针叶林的扩张则指示气温和湿度下降,中新世常绿林的扩张则指示了温度和湿度回升。     

THE DIAGNOSTIC CALCULATION OF EQUATORIAL FLOWS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

On the basis of observational data of the eastern part of the West Pacific Ocean, a diagnostic calculation of equatorial flow for this region is performed by using the authors' model equations and computing scheme and methods. For the first cruise (January 3-March 4, 1979), the results show: (i) The primary driving force of the equatorial surface flows comes from the prevailing northeasterly wind field, with an average uniform wind speed Vw = 6.3 m/s. The steady westward wind produces divergent westward flows in the surface layers, causing an upwelling near the equator. The importance of the steady wind stress in the upper layer (120 m) decreases with depth and becomes insignificant at the level of z = 75 m or z = 100 m, (ii) The equatorial undercurrent is a strong eastward and equator-ward flow, with its eastward component of undercurrent larger than its meridional component. The core of the undercurrent is at the thermocline, and its maximum velocity is 88-90 cm/s at the level of z=200 m. The deeper f     

Hilbert Transferin Applied to Separation of Waves

The analytical method (AM) for separation of composite waves is presented based on the Hilbert transform. It is ap-plicable to both regular and irregular trains of waves. The wave data series measured with two wave gauges in the experi-ments are separated into two series of incident and reflected waves. Then, the reflection coefficient can be easily ob-tained. The arrival of reflected waves can also be detected for improveraent of the accuracy of the reflection coefficient. The reflection performance of the physical model can be estimated exactly without calculation of wave height and phase difference. Numerical samples developed to test the method are proved to be accurate. Physical experiments are conduct-ed and compared with Goda s method and satisfactory results are obtained.     

山东南山集团东海热电厂地貌型态和泥沙淤积分析

通过分析东海热电厂厂址海域的底质和海岸型态、浅水区波浪、水体含沙量和沿岸输沙．为选择电厂取、排水口合理位置提供科学依据。     

卫星测高技术应用研究回顾与展望

简要介绍了笔者所在单位近十年来密切跟踪世界发展动态,灵活运用高新技术,致力于卫星测高技术应用研究所取得的一些有理论意义和实用价值的成果,这些成果主要包括四个方面：卫星测高径向轨道误差时域和空域特征分析、卫星测高反演海洋重力场、卫星测高反演海底地形以及利用测高重力异常扩展超高阶地球位模型研究成果。最后对这一研究领域未来的发展方向作了展望。     

基准网平差初至波定位方法及应用

在滩浅海地震勘探中,由于海水深度和潮流的变化,在水面上按照预定位置沉放的检波器,在海底不可能放置在预定的位置。为此,利用基准网平差初至波定位方法对海底检波器位置进行了准确的二次定位,并对初至波二次定位和声波二次定位进行了比较分析。基准网平差初至波定位方法在KD-1滩浅海地区高精度地震勘探应用中取得了良好的效果。     

江阴南部地面沉降及地裂缝研究

江阴南部地区在构造上呈现"两隆一凹"的格局,南、北边缘为基岩隆起带,中心为第四系松散沉积平原,受基底起伏及古河道的控制,土层厚度、岩性、结构及水文地质特征差异较大。由于长期超量开采第Ⅱ承压水,不仅形成了区域水位降落漏斗,也形成了地面沉降漏斗,最大水位漏斗中心水位埋深约75m,沉降漏斗中心最大沉降量达1 300mm以上。并在长泾、河塘、祝塘等地由于差异沉降形成三处地裂缝,这些裂缝具有相似的发育特征,即在主裂缝处形成陡坎,陡坎高约10~30cm,主裂缝的NW侧则相对下错并形成宽约20~60m的凹陷带,带中发育有规模较小的次级裂缝。基底隆起及其所控制的第四系松散层厚度及结构差异是地裂缝发育的空间乃至时间特征的基础,是控制因素;深层地下水的长期超量开采所导致的地层压缩或固结是地裂缝形成的主导因素,地裂缝正是基岩隆起带地层差异压缩所形成的差异地面沉降的结果。据估算,其发育深度可达基岩隆起的最浅处,并实际上已发展成为小断层。