Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999     

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Photoelectric device for monitoring the movement of a torsion balance beam

Manufactured and tested in his work is a photoelectric device that makes it possible to automatically determine the relative angular position of the beam of a miniature torsion balance, angular readings being discretized with various time step values and stored in a computer. Measurements were taken with this device that captured the occurrence of the partial solar eclipse on September 11, 2007, and confirmed the fact, established previously through visual observation, that the position of torsion balance beams changed at the instant an eclipse took place.     

Spectroscopic binaries near the North Galactic Pole paper 6: BD 33° 2206

Photoelectric radial-velocity measurements have confirmed O. C. Wilson’s finding that BD 33° 2206, the secondary star in the wide visual binary ADS 8470, is a spectroscopic binary. It has an eccentric orbit with a period of 100 days. Its γ-velocity is close to the constant radial velocity of the visual primary, confirming the physical association of the stars.     

Oceanic versus island arc origin of ophiolites

The silica content of basaltic rocks is an unreliable variable with which to distinguish ultramafic-mafic complexes developed at ocean ridges from those potentially formed beneath volcanic island arcs. Data from Appalachian ophiolites supports the view that silica metasomatism is responsible for the high silica content of supposed calc-alkaline basaltic rocks found in ophiolites such as Troodos, and that the high-silica (70 wt.%) leucocratic rocks associated with ophiolites are of tholeiitic rather than calc-alkaline parentage. The use of titanium as a discriminant of tectonic environment is also suspect because the titanium content of basalts associated with Appalachian ophiolites as well as those recently recovered from the Atlantic ocean floor ranges from values even lower than those typical of island arc tholeiites to values typical of abyssal tholeiites. However, the internal stratigraphy of ophiolites in both the Appalachian and Tethyan systems can only be explained on the basis of the postulate that ophiolites originate at oceanic spreading centres rather than beneath island arcs.     

Synchrotron spectra of short-period pulsars

A model with synchrotron radiation near the light cylinder is proposed to explain the observed spectra of short-period pulsars (P≤0.1 s). These spectra can be described if a power-law energy distribution of the emitting electrons with exponent γ=2–8 is assumed. For most pulsars, the peak frequency ν_m is below 10 MHz. The ν_m(γ) dependence is derived, and shows that the peak frequencies for pulsars with spectral indices α<1.5 may fall in the observable range. In particular, ν_m may be ν_m ～ 100 MHz for PSR J0751 + 1807 and PSR J1640 + 2224. The observed radio spectrum of Geminga (PSR J0633 + 1746) can be described by a synchrotron model with a monoenergetic or Maxwellian distribution of relativistic electrons and a small angle β between the spin axis and magnetic moment (β ～ 10°).     

Regularized derivatives of potential fields and their role in semi-automated interpretation methods

Evaluation of higher derivatives (gradients) of potential fields plays an important role in geophysical interpretation (qualitative and/or quantitative), as has been demonstrated in many approaches and methods. On the other hand, numerical evaluation of higher derivatives is an unstable process – it has the tendency to enlarge the noise content in the original data (to degrade the signal-to-noise ratio). One way to stabilize higher derivative evaluation is the utilization of the Tikhonov regularization. In the submitted contribution we present the derivation of the regularized derivative filter in the Fourier domain as a minimization task by means of using the classical calculus of variations. A very important part of the presented approach is the selection of the optimum regularization parameter – we are using the analysis of the C-norm function (constructed from the difference between two adjacent solutions, obtained for different values of regularization parameter). We show the influence of regularized derivatives on the properties of the classical 3D Euler deconvolution algorithm and apply it to high-sensitivity magnetometry data obtained from an unexploded ordnance detection survey. The solution obtained with regularized derivatives gives better focused depth-estimates, which are closer to the real position of sources (verified by excavation of unexploded projectiles).     

Solar rotation, 1966–1978

Photospheric and chromospheric spectroscopic Doppler rotation rates for the full solar disk are analyzed for the period July, 1966 to July, 1978. An approximately linear secular increase of the equatorial rate of 3.7% for these 12 years is found (in confirmation of Howard, 1976). The high latitude rates above 65 ° appear to vary with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 8%, or more, phased to the sunspot cycle such that the most rapid rotation occurs at, or following, solar maximum. The chromosphere, as indicated by H, has continued to rotate on the average 3% faster than the photosphere agreeing with past observations. Sources of error are discussed and evaluated.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.