Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Old, Low-Mass, Metal-Rich (SMR) Stars

The authors of this paper try to disentangle the many problems arisen from a new enlarged sample of nearby low-mass,metal-rich-stars. These stars have reliable absolute magnitudes, deduced from Hipparcos parallaxes, precise bolometric corrections, effective temperatures and metal abundances from high resolution detailed spectroscopic analyses. Their ages have been derived from a grid of isochrones calculated with up to date physics. The main goal of this paper is to determine the ages of the slightly evolved SMR stars. Among those with well determinated ages about 80% of them have intermediate ages of (2 to 5 Gyr), but only 20% have ages of 8 Gyr or more. Nevertheless, the existence of very old metal-rich stars is confirmed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Specifying the mesoscale numerical forecast of heavy showers

Actual surface fields of meteorological variables 1–3 hours before the heavy showers are analyzed in detail for the purpose of their specification with WRF-ARW model. The complex of hygrothermodynamic characteristics needed for this purpose is discovered. The detailed satellite, radar, and synoptic data are also considered.     

Engineering problems associated with expansive clays from Romania

Engineering problems associated with expansive clay formations, which have a large swelling and shrinking potential, exist in different regions of Romania.In the general framework of the study of the behaviour of expansive clays, the present paper describes some particular aspects connected with the swelling and shrinkage processes and their engineering effects in Romania.The differences between swelling potential relationships, obtained by two different methods are presented and discussed. Swelling pressure tests were accomplished using the available standard techniques, as well as a specially developed cell pressure equipment.Attention is drawn to the stages of the shrinkage process as related to soil structure. It was found that, in a general case, there are three distinct?tages: initial, normal and residual shrinkage.Laboratory investigations have shown that in soils with an anisotropic structure, the directional variation of shrinkage strains is elliptical in shape, with the maximum shrinkage normal to particle orientation.The engineering aspects of the results are discussed.     

A Holocene record of climate change,fire ecology and human activity from montane Flat Top Bog,Maui

A sediment core from a high-elevation bog on Maui in the Hawaiian Islands contains evidence for drier conditions between 9.4–5.8 kyr BP, followed by a wetter interval between 5.8–2.2 kyr BP, and a variable late Holocene. These precipitation changes may be a reflection of vertical displacements of the upper boundary of the mid-Pacific Trade Wind Inversion (TWI) cloud layer. Fires, probably volcanically ignited, occurred in the forests prior to human arrival. Polynesian activity in this high-elevation, remote site was apparently limited, with no pollen, charcoal, or sedimentological evidence for local anthropogenic disturbance. After European contact, grass fires increased and introduced plant species invaded the site. Values for Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in sediments throughout the Holocene indicate low trace-metal deposition from atmospheric particulates at the site, even in the twentieth century.This paper is one of a series of papers guest edited by Dr. Mark Brenner on tropical paleolimnology     

A ‘mathematical’ spider living on gravel plains of the Namib Desert

In certain areas of the Namib gravel plains a new Ariadna sp. was discovered. It rims its vertical burrow with a stone circle, made on average of seven quartz stones. Some mathematical relationships between hole diameter, stone sizes and weight, and animal size were studied. A correlation was found, and stone selection by this spider postulated. Different hypotheses on the adaptive value of stone circle are suggested.