Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in the natural abundance of 15N in estuarine suspended particulate matter: A specific indicator of biological processing

In this study, the ¹⁴N:¹⁵N ratio of suspended particulate material collected from the Tamar river estuary, south-west England, is described. Three populations of particles, distinguishable by their ¹⁵N content, were observed. This investigation has shown that populations of estuarine particles are generated by biological transformations in situ and that the ¹⁵N content of estuarine particles does not merely reflect hydrodynamic mixing of the freshwater and seawater source particulate material.     

Dissolution and depletion of ferromagnesian minerals from Holocene tephra layers in an acid bog,New Zealand,and implications for tephra correlation

This study examines the depletion of ferromagnesian silicate minerals from a sequence of thin, distal, mainly rhyolitic tephra layers of Holocene age preserved in an acid peat bog (Kopouatai), North Island, New Zealand. The rate of such depletion has been fast, as indicated by the complete loss of biotite from one tephra layer (Kaharoa Tephra), in which it is normally dominant, in only ca. 770 yr. Chemical dissolution is advocated as the likely cause for the depletion, with amphiboles and other mineral grains commonly showing etch pits, microcaves, and other characteristic surface solution features. Theoretical thermodynamic and kinetic models show a marked increase in the rate of dissolution of all ferromagnesian minerals under conditions of low pH (< 4), but that where silica concentrations in solution are high the relative proportions of minerals remaining are unaffected. However, where concentrations of dissolved silica are low, as in most bog environments, the relative proportions of ferromagnesian minerals are affected as well as absolute amounts being decreased. Amphiboles are depleted relative to pyroxenes, consistent with kinetic studies. The results show that the identification and correlation of tephras on the basis of relative abundances of ferromagnesian minerals alone may be unreliable, and emphasise the need to use multiple criteria in such studies.     

Response of circular footings and anchor plates in non-homogeneous elastic soils

The axisymmetric elastic response of circular footings and anchor plates in a linearly non-homogeneous elastic soil is analysed. It is assumed that footings/anchors are flexible and subjected to axisymmetric vertical loads. The response of the footing/anchor is modelled by using the classical Poisson–Kirchhoff thin plate theory. A variational technique is used to analyse the interaction problem. A representation for the contact stress is established by using a fundamental solution corresponding to a unit vertical pressure acting over an annular region in the interior of the non-homogeneous soil. The fundamental solution can be derived by using rigorous analytical procedures. The influence of the footing flexibility and the degree of soil non-homogeneity on the displacements, bending moments and contact stresses of a surface footing is examined over a wide range of governing parameters. In the case of anchor plates the influence of depth of embedment, degree of soil non-homogeneity and anchor flexibility on the anchor displacement is investigated.     

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Recurrent Red-tides in the Southampton Water Estuary Caused by the Phototrophic CiliateMesodinium rubrum

In the Southampton Water estuary (southern England, U.K.), red-tides caused by the planktonic, phototrophic ciliateMesodinium rubrum(=Myrionecta rubra) occur during most summers and sometimes in autumn. These events were investigated in detail between 1985 and 1987 and were characterized by levels of chlorophylla(chl a) of over 100 μg l⁻¹, cell numbers ofM. rubrumof over 1×10³ ml⁻¹, oxygen saturations of around 150%, and depleted numbers of macrozooplankton. Initiation of red-water did not appear to be triggered by irradiance or nutrients, but coincided with an increase in temperature and water column stability. This enhanced stability was promoted by increased surface to bottom gradients of both temperature and salinity, and by reduced mixing during neap tides. Development of red-water was accompanied by removal of most of the dissolved NH⁺₄from the water column, whereas some NO⁻₃persisted, presumably maintained by freshwater input. NO⁻₃and NH⁺₄gradually returned to pre-bloom concentrations as the red-water declined in late summer. Maximal biomass ofM. rubrumappeared to be limited by irradiance, and self-shading probably imposed an upper limit of around 300 mg chl a m⁻²within the water column. At the observed levels of chl a, irradiance values within the population maximum between 1 and 3 m depth were only just of the order (≈15 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹) required to balance estimated respiratory demands. Oxygen concentration became undersaturated during the late bloom phase, with minimal values of 20–30% saturation recorded in deeper waters; however, despite this and reduced numbers of macrozooplankton, direct deleterious effects on other organisms were not observed.     

Trace-element contents and cathodoluminescence of “trapiche” rubies from Mong Hsu, Myanmar (Burma): geological significance

Summary ?Mong Hsu rubies of the “trapiche” type are sporadically seen in the gem market. However, they have never been described in the field. The study of the nature of solid inclusions, the variation of trace-element contents, as well as the cathodoluminescence behaviour of six “trapiche” rubies permit the conclusion that these rubies crystallised in the same geological environment (marble-type deposit) as the normal rubies from Mong Hsu: (1) Cr and V are the main chromophorous elements in both ruby types; they act, together with Ti, as activators or quenchers for cathodoluminescence; (2) calcite, dolomite, rutile, mica, diaspore, apatite, chlorite, and feldspar are solid inclusions found in both ruby types; (3) the presence of bastn?site in trapiche ruby and fluorite in non-trapiche ruby indicates the circulation of F-bearing fluids during ruby deposition; (4) the distribution of trace-element contents in the crystal is similar for both ruby types. In the Cr₂O₃ vs. Fe₂O₃ and Cr₂O₃ vs. Fe₂O₃/TiO₂ diagrams, the population fields of Mong Hsu “trapiche” and non-“trapiche” rubies overlap. They are distinct from those of rubies and sapphires hosted in basalts from South-east Asia. Received October 30, 2001; revised version accepted March 25, 2002     

A 2000-YEAR CONTEXT FOR MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE

ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well-distributed (pole-equator-pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric ¹⁴C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first-order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale.