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121.
Dryer M. Fry C.D. Sun W. Deehr C. Smith Z. Akasofu S.-I. Andrews M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284
Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues
to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time
prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day')
flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as
part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and
ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions
of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third
model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT,
15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks
through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display
them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported
flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15
July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as
an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to
describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the
asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch
represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and
simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier
as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward
space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain.
Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867 相似文献
122.
C.J. Mooney W.R.J. Rolleston F.P. Keenan P.L. Dufton D.L. Pollacco H.R. Magee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(3):1101-1109
We present a model-atmosphere analysis for the bright ( V ∼13) star ZNG-1, in the globular cluster M10. From high-resolution ( R ∼40 000) optical spectra we confirm ZNG-1 to be a post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) star. The derived atmospheric parameters are T eff =26 500±1000 K and log g =3.6±0.2 dex . A differential abundance analysis reveals a chemical composition typical of hot post-AGB objects, with ZNG-1 being generally metal poor, although helium is approximately solar. The most interesting feature is the large carbon underabundance of more than 1.3 dex. This carbon deficiency, along with an observed nitrogen enhancement relative to other elements, may suggest that ZNG-1 evolved off the AGB before the third dredge-up occurred. Also, iron depletions observed in other similar stars suggest that gas–dust fractionation in the AGB progenitor could be responsible for the observed composition of these objects. However, we need not invoke either scenario since the chemical composition of ZNG-1 is in good agreement with abundances found for a Population II star of the same metallicity. 相似文献
123.
K. C. WELTEN K. NISHIIZUMI J. MASARIK M. W. CAFFEE A. J. T. JULL S. E. KLANDRUD R. WIELER 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2001,36(2):301-317
Abstract— We measured the concentrations of 10Be, 26Al, 36Cl, 41Ca and 14C in the metal and/or stone fractions of 27 Antarctic chondrites from Frontier Mountain (FRO), including two large H‐chondrite showers. To estimate the pre‐atmospheric size of the two showers, we determined the contribution of neutron‐capture produced 36Cl (half‐life = 3.01 times 105 years) and 41Ca (1.04 times 105 years) in the stone fraction. The measured activities of neutron‐capture 36Cl and 41Ca, as well as spallation produced 10Be and 26Al, were compared with Monte Carlo‐based model calculations. The largest shower, FRO 90174, includes eight fragments with an average terrestrial age of (100 ± 30) × 103 years; the neutron‐capture saturation activities extend to 27 dpm/kg stone for 36Cl and 19 dpm/kg stone for 41Ca. The concentrations of spallation produced 10Be, 26Al and 36Cl constrain the radius (R) to 80–100 cm, while the neutron‐capture 41Ca activities indicate that the samples originated from the outer 25 cm. With a pre‐atmospheric radius of 80–100 cm, FRO 90174 is among the largest of the Antarctic stony meteorites. The large pre‐atmospheric size supports our hypothesis that at least 50 of the ~150 classified H5/H6‐chondrites from the Frontier Mountain stranding area belong to this single fall; this hypothesis does not entirely account for the high H/L ratio at Frontier Mountain. The smaller shower, FRO 90001, includes four fragments with an average terrestrial age of (40 ± 10) × 103 years; they contain small contributions of neutron‐capture 36Cl, but no excess of 41Ca. FRO 90001 experienced a complex exposure history with high shielding conditions in the first stage (150 < R < 300 cm) and much lower shielding in the second stage (R < 30 cm), the latter starting ~1.0 million years (Ma) ago. Based on the measured 10Be/21Ne and 26Al/21Ne ratios, the cosmic‐ray exposure ages of the two showers are 7.2 ± 0.5 Ma for FRO 90174 and 8 ± 1 Ma for FRO 90001. These ages coincide with the well‐established H‐chondrite peak and corroborate the observation that the exposure age distribution of FRO H‐chondrites is similar to that of non‐Antarctic falls. In addition, we found that corrections for neutron‐capture 36Ar (from decay of 36Cl) result in concordant 21Ne and 38Ar exposure ages. 相似文献
124.
R. T. Schilizzi W. Aldrich B. Anderson A. Bos R. M. Campbell J. Canaris R. Cappallo J. L. Casse A. Cattani J. Goodman H. J. van Langevelde A. Maccafferri R. Millenaar R. G. Noble F. Olnon S. M. Parsley C. Phillips S. V. Pogrebenko D. Smythe A. Szomoru H. Verkouter A. R. Whitney 《Experimental Astronomy》2001,12(1):49-67
125.
The occurrence of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia and its dependence on past and presently ongoing climatic variations was investigated with one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical models by solving the transient heat conduction equation with latent heat effects included. The study area is characterized by discontinuous permafrost occurrences such as palsa mires and local mountain permafrost. The ground temperature changes during the Holocene were constructed using climatic proxy data. This variation was used as a forcing function at the ground surface in the calculations. Several versions of the present ground temperature were applied, resulting in different subsurface freezing–thawing conditions in the past depending on the assumed porosity and geothermal conditions.Our results suggest that in high altitude areas with a cold climate (present mean annual ground temperature between 0°C and −3°C), there may have been considerable variations in permafrost thickness (ranging from 0 to 150 m), as well as periods of no permafrost at all. The higher is the porosity of bedrock filled with ice, the stronger is the retarding effect of permafrost against climatic variations.Two-dimensional models including topographic effects with altitude-dependent ground temperatures and slope orientation and inclination dependent solar radiation were applied to a case of mountain permafrost in Ylläs, western Finnish Lapland, where bedrock permafrost is known to occur in boreholes to a depth of about 60 m. Modelling suggests complicated changes in permafrost thickness with time as well as contrasting situations on southern and northern slopes of the mountain.Extrapolating the climatic warming of the last 200 years to the end of the next century when the anticipated increase in the annual average air temperature is expected to be about 2 K indicates that the permafrost occurrences in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia would be thawing rapidly in low-porosity formations. However, already a porosity of 5% filled with ice would retard the thawing considerably. 相似文献
126.
W. J. Chaplin G. Houdek Y. Elsworth D. O. Gough G. R. Isaak R. New 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,360(3):859-868
We investigate the frequency dependence of the power spectral density of low-degree solar p modes by comparing measurements with the results of a stochastic-excitation model. In the past it was common practice to use the total power in such investigations. Using the maximum of the power spectral density instead provides a direct comparison with the measured mode heights in the observed power spectrum. This method permits a more careful calibration of the adjustable parameters in the excitation model, a model which we present here, for the first time, in a format that precisely and unambiguously relates the amplitudes of the modes of oscillation to the Reynolds stress in the equilibrium model. We find that errors in the theory of the linear mode damping rates, particularly at low frequency, have a dramatic impact on the predictions of the mode heights in the spectral density, whereas parameter changes in the stochastic excitation model, within a plausible domain of parameter space, have a comparatively small effect. 相似文献
127.
Steven J. Ostro Lance A. M. Benner Christopher Magri Jon D. Giorgini Randy Rose Raymond F. Jurgens Donald K. Yeomans Alice A. Hine Michael C. Nolan Daniel J. Scheeres Stephen B. Broschart Mikko Kaasalainen Jean‐Luc Margot 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2005,40(11):1563-1574
Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object. 相似文献
128.
E. I. Timoshkova 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1985,36(2):105-121
The first integrals of motion of the restricted planar circular problem of three bodies are constructed as the formal power series in r1/2, r being the distance of a moving particle from the primary. It is shown that the coefficients of these series are trigonometric polynomials of an angular variable. Some particular solutions have been found in a closed form. The proposed method for constructing the formal integrals can be generalized to a spatial problem of three bodies. 相似文献
129.
K.A. MAASCH P.A. MAYEWSKI E.J. ROHLING J.C. STAGER W. KARLEN L.D. MEEKER E.A. MEYERSON 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(1):7-15
ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well-distributed (pole-equator-pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric 14 C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first-order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale. 相似文献
130.
The lifetimes, characteristics of the shapes as well as lengths and perimeters of artificial solar granules (Nordlund, 1982, 1984a) are compared with data from the literature and parameters determined from two different sets of observed granules. No significant differences of the parameters for these sets of granules are detectable.Mitteilungen aus dem Kiepenheuer-Institut Nr. 251. 相似文献