Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

The Impact of New EUV Diagnostics on CME-Related Kinematics

We present the application of novel diagnostics to the spectroscopic observation of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on disk by the Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on the Hinode spacecraft. We apply a recently developed line profile asymmetry analysis to the spectroscopic observation of NOAA AR 10930 on 14?–?15 December 2006 to three raster observations before and during the eruption of a 1000 km?s^?1 halo CME. We see the impact that the observer’s line-of-sight and magnetic field geometry have on the diagnostics used. Further, and more importantly, we identify the on-disk signature of a high-speed outflow behind the CME in the dimming region arising as a result of the eruption. Supported by recent coronal observations of the STEREO spacecraft, we speculate about the momentum flux resulting from this outflow as a secondary momentum source to the CME. The results presented highlight the importance of spectroscopic measurements in relation to CME kinematics, and the need for full-disk synoptic spectroscopic observations of the coronal and chromospheric plasmas to capture the signature of such explosive energy release as a way of providing better constraints of CME propagation times to L1, or any other point of interest in the heliosphere.     

Temporal Evolution of the Solar-Wind Electron Core Density at Solar Minimum by Correlating SWEA Measurements from STEREO A and B

The twin STEREO spacecraft provide a unique tool to study the temporal evolution of the solar-wind properties in the ecliptic since their longitudinal separation increases with time. We derive the characteristic temporal variations at ～?1 AU between two different plasma parcels ejected from the same solar source by excluding the spatial variations from our datasets. As part of the onboard IMPACT instrument suite, the SWEA electron experiment provides the solar-wind electron core density at two different heliospheric vantage points. We analyze these density datasets between March and August 2007 and find typical solar minimum conditions. After adjusting for the theoretical time lag between the two spacecraft, we compare the two density datasets. We find that their correlation decreases as the time difference increases between two ejections. The correlation coefficient is about 0.80 for a time lag of a half day and 0.65 for two days. These correlation coefficients from the electron core density are somewhat lower than the ones from the proton bulk velocity obtained in an earlier study, though they are still high enough to consider the solar wind as persistent after two days. These quantitative results reflect the variability of the solar-wind properties in space and time, and they might serve as input for solar-wind models.     

EC 11481–2303—a peculiar subdwarf OB star revisited

EC?11481–2303 is a peculiar, hot, high-gravity pre-white dwarf. Previous optical spectroscopy revealed that it is a sdOB star with T _eff=41?790 K, log?g=5.84, and He/H = 0.014 by number. We present an on-going spectral analysis by means of non-LTE model-atmosphere techniques based on high-resolution, high-S/N optical (VLT-UVES) and ultraviolet (FUSE, IUE) observations.We are able to reproduce the optical and UV observations simultaneously with a chemically homogeneous NLTE model atmosphere with a significantly higher effective temperature and lower He abundance (T _eff=55?000 K, log?g=5.8, and He/H=0.0025 by number). While C, N, and O appear less than 0.15 times solar, the iron-group abundance is strongly enhanced by at least a factor of ten.     

Heights of formation of non-magnetic solar lines suitable for velocity studies

Heights of formation of lines that do not exhibit Zeeman splitting are calculated using an LTE, partial non-LTE, and full non-LTE approach. Non-magnetic (g=0) lines are valuable for velocity investigations in quiet-Sun magnetic field regions, and a knowledge of their formation heights is useful for obtaining three dimensional velocity profiles in these regions. Presently at Sacramento Peak Observatory. Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

A model of lunar evolution

There have been many models describing the evolution of our sister planet. As information from the intensive exploration by the Apollo program has accumulated, more constraints on these models have emerged. We specifically consider a hypothesis in which there is a present day asthenosphere, a heat flow between 24 and 32 ergs cm⁻² s⁻¹ and a crust which developed early in the Moon's history by melting of the outer 100 to 200 km. We have also introduced a constraint which keeps the deep interior below the Curie point of iron for the first 1 to 1.5 b.y. so that it is able to carry the memory of an early field which magnetized the cold interior. The magnetized mare basalts and breccias cooled in this field from above the Curie point of iron (≈800°C.) and acquired a thermoremanent magnetization. While fully recognizing that some of these constraints are subject to other interpretations, it is nevertheless instructive to consider the thermal history that follows from such a model. First, the initial temperature must be high enough to cause melting in the outer 100–200 km, while the interior temperature must be cool enough to be below the Curie point of iron. Second, the crust in this model cools off so rapidly that the mare basalts could not be developed as late as indicated in lunar history. Rather we propose that the mare basalts result from local remelting associated with giant impacts. Third, the Moon's deep interior must have warmed up enough to erase the memory of the ancient magnetic field from the deep interior and to develop the asthenosphere which has been detected seismically. Fourth, if this asthenosphere is real, the viscosity of the Moon as a function of temperature must be high enough to have prevented convective cooling until the temperature increased to a value near the solidus temperature. At this temperature, the Moon would then likely cool by convection in the solid state. It is, therefore, a consequence of this model that solid body convection tool place late in lunar history. This may well have contributed to the lunar center of figure and center of mass offset, to the low order terms in its gravity field and to, its disequilibrium moment of inertia differences.     

3.3 Millimeter limb brightening measurements during the 30 June 1973 total solar eclipse

Solar limb brightening measurements at a wavelength of 3.3 mm were made during the 30 June 1973 total solar eclipse from a site at Lake Rudolf, Kenya. The results show that at this wavelength there is a limb brightening of about 20%, occurring within one half arc min of the limb.     

On the nature of some active regions in the microwave range

The radio emission of a selected number of solar active regions has been investigated with high angular resolution at two frequencies: 10 and 17 GHz. By comparing the results of the two observations the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. The brightness temperature distribution of an active region is often composed of very bright cores of small dimension (angular extent θ?20″) imbedded in extended halos of lower brightness.
2. The radio emission of such structures as well as the degree of polarization can be explained with a thermal process. The halos can originate by pure thermal bremsstrahlung while in the case of the very bright cores found at 10 GHz (brightness temperature T _b?1–9 × 10⁶K) the emission at the harmonics of the gyrofrequency is needed.