Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: Changes during the 20th century

Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interest, including the natural frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the Global Daily Climatology Network and a new Global Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created jointly by U.S. National Climatic Data Center and Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information. Data from these archives (approximately 1500 of them having sufficiently long meteorological time series suitable for participation in our analyses) are employed to estimate systematic changes in indices used in the United States and Russia to assess potential forest fire danger. We use four indices: (1) Keetch–Byram Drought Index, (KBDI; this index was developed and widely used in the United States); (2) Nesterov, (3) Modified Nesterov, and (4) Zhdanko Indices (these indices were developed and widely used in Russia). Analyses show that after calibration, time series of the days with increased potential forest fire danger constructed using each of these three indices (a) are well correlated and (b) deliver similar conclusions about systematic changes in the weather conditions conducive to forest fires. Specifically, over the Eastern half of Northern Eurasia (Siberia and the Russian Far East) statistically significant increases in indices that characterize the weather conditions conducive to forest fires were found. These areas coincide with the areas of most significant warming during the past several decades south of the Arctic Circle. West of the Ural Mountains, the same indices show a steady decrease in the frequency of “dry weather summer days” during the past 60 yr. This study is corroborated with available statistics of forest fires and with observed changes in drought statistics in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia.     

The Mw 7.4 Colima, Mexico, Earthquake of 21 January 2003: The Observed Damage Matrix in Colima City and its Comparison with the Damage Probability Matrix

The Mw 7.4 earthquake of 21 January 2003 occurred within the Mexican subduction zone and produced many damages of masonry constructions in the towns of Colima state, México. The macroseismic investigation of damages produced by the earthquake in Colima city was realized for 3,332 constructions within the area of study representing about 20% of the total city area and covered with the different type of constructions. The 7-grade scale of damage was used to describe the damage distribution. The damage matrix, constructed for the area, showed that the damage distribution varied from 63% of constructions with relatively slight damages (grades 1–3) to 29% of constructions that had significative damages (grades 4–5) and 8% of completely destructed or demolished masonry. The damage matrices, constructed for 12 subzones of the area of study, reflected two tendencies in the damage distributions: the predominance of slight damages of the recent constructions situated in the northern and eastern parts of the area and the predominance of significant damages of the older constructions in the southern and western parts of the area. It was observed a significant dependence of damage index upon the age of constructions and the type of masonry. The comparison of the observed damage matrix with the damage probability matrix calculated for Colima masonry in 1999 gives MM intensity VII in Colima.