Influence of Rivera-Cocos Plate Boundary Geodynamics on Earthquake Intensity Patterns: the 9 October 1995 (Mw 8.0) and 21 (22) January 2003 (Mw 7.5) Earthquakes

This study examines two large thrust subduction earthquakes occurring within the Rivera-Cocos plate boundary which struck the western coast of México on 9 October 1995, Mw 8.0, and 21 (22 GMT) January 2003, Mw 7.5. The Modified Mercalli (MM) earthquake intensities observed during these earthquakes were surprising for some towns located in the Mexican coastal zone. During the smaller Mw 7.5 2003 earthquake, MM intensity VII was observed for towns of Colima, Villa de Alvarez and Ixtlahuacán, while during the larger Mw 8.0 1995 earthquake, their MM intensities were only IV?CV, V and V?CVI, respectively. We construct the macroseismic patterns for these two earthquakes and discuss the possible reasons for the significant difference in the outline of the MM VII isoseismals, such as the tectonic setting of epicentral zones and the directivity of rupture processes along and across the coastal line.     

Seismicity associated with active, new-born, and re-awakening basaltic volcanoes: case review and the possible scenarios for the Harraat volcanic provinces, Saudi Arabia

During April–June 2009, a swarm of more than 30,000 earthquakes struck the Harrat Lunayyir, situated in the north-western end of the Saudi Arabian Harraat, east of the Red Sea. This sharp increase in the seismic activity in the region of ancient basaltic volcanic centers indicated a likelihood of a future eruption. To check the situation, a short review of the best-documented seismic activity associated with active, new-born, and re-awakening basaltic volcanoes is presented in this article. Basing on the review, some regularity in the development of seismic activity associated with basaltic eruptions was formulated. Three stages in the development of seismic activity were identified: preliminary, preceding, and continuous. The duration of preceding stage varies from a few hours for active and re-awakened volcanoes to some weeks for new-born volcanoes and may serve as a criterion for discriminations of different types of basaltic eruptions. The duration of the seismic activity during the 2009 episode at Harrat Lunayyir was longer than any activity preceding the basaltic eruptions of different types. Therefore, the most probable scenario is the arrest of sub-surface intrusion without any eruption in the region of Harrat Lunayyir. The next probable scenario would be the dike injections along the rift zones. The re-awakening of the old Harrat Lunayyir volcano or the birth of a new volcano at Harrat Lunayyir is less probable.     

硅酸盐-盐（硫酸盐）流体不混溶：蒙古南部Mushugai-Khuduk含火成碳酸岩杂岩体矿物中的熔体包裹体研究

Crystalline and melt inclusions were studied in garnet,diopside,potassium feldspar,and sphene from the garnet syenite porphyry of the carbonatite-bearing complex Mushugai-Khuduk,southern Mongolia.Phlogopite,clinopyroxene,albite,potassium feldspar,spheric,wollastonite,magnetite,Ca and Sr sulfates,fluorite,and apatite were identified among the crystalline inclusions. The melt inclusions were homogenized at 1010～1080℃and analyzed on an electron microprobe.Silicate,salt,and combined silicate- salt melt inclusions were found.Silicate melts show considerable variations in SiO_2 concentration(56 to 66wt% ),high Na_2O K_2O (up to 17wt% ),and elevated Zr,F,and C1 contents.In terms of bulk rock chemistry,the silicate melts are alkali syenites.During thermometric experiments,salt melt inclusions quenched into homogeneous glasses of predominantly sulfate compositions containing no more than 1.3wt% SiO_2.These melts are enriched in alkalis,Ba,Sr,P,F,and C1.The investigation of the silicate and salt melt inclusions in minerals of the garnet syenite porphyries indicate that these rocks were formed under influence of the processes of crystallization differentiation and magma separation into immiscible silicate and salt(sulfate)liquids.     

Seismotectonic deformation of the volcanic edifice prior to the 1998 lava eruption of Volcán de Colima, México

The andesitic stratovolcano Volcán de Colima is one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico. The recent eruption of Volcán de Colima began in November 1998 and was preceded by a 12-month period of seismic activity that included five earthquake swarms. About 600 events with magnitudes from -0.5 to 2.7 were located within a 50-km² area extending northward from the crater of Volcán de Colima to the Pleistocene volcano Nevado de Colima. The majority of hypocenters within this area did not exceed 5 km depth below sea level. We investigated earthquake focal mechanisms and seismotectonic deformations of the volcanic edifice. Focal mechanisms during four earthquake swarms indicated normal faulting associated with extensional processes, which is in agreement with the general stress regime near the volcano revealed by field measurements of fault slips. Earthquakes in the fifth swarm had focal mechanisms associated with inverse faulting, showing a significant change in the stress situation just before the beginning of the eruption. The calculated deformations varied from 1.3᎒^-11 to 2.7᎒^-9. The first swarm of November-December 1997 resulted in a N-S horizontal elongation that was two times greater than the E-W horizontal shortening. The volume was also subject to vertical shortening. The second and third swarms, observed in March and May 1998, showed uniform horizontal N-S and E-W elongations accompanied by a vertical elongation of the volume. In June-July 1998, the situation of November-December 1997 was repeated, with N-S horizontal elongation greater than the E-W horizontal shortening of the volume accompanied by intensive vertical shortening. During the last swarm of October-November 1998, slight E-W elongation of the seismic volume was accompanied by strong N-S shortening and very slight vertical shortening. We assume that the seismic activity prior to the 1998 eruption of Volcán de Colima developed along two intersecting tectonic structures, the N-S-trending Colima rift, and the E-W-trending system of faults associated with Tamazula fault. During the first stage (November 1997-July 1998) the passageway for magma was developed along the Tamazula fault system under horizontal extension without any surface manifestation. In October-November 1998, the seismic events began to cluster along the Colima rift structures under predominantly compressional stresses; this condition culminated with the extrusion of andesitic block lava from the summit crater.     

Use of Gaussian Distribution for Estimation of Gob Gas Drainage Well Productivity

This paper describes the development and application of new mathematical models for estimation of well productivity during drainage of methane gob gas associated with coal extraction. It is established that the relationship between methane emission from surface gob gas wells and the duration of well production can be described by Gaussian (normal) distribution. Mathematical models based on using the Gaussian error distribution function and the Gaussian density function were proposed to describe the correlation between parameters of methane emission from gob gas wells, duration of well production, and time coordinate of maximum gas emission. These models allow prediction of the total volume of gas which can be extracted for the entire period of well production, the maximum volumetric flow rate of gas emission and the time coordinate of maximum gas emission using at least three measurement of gas volumetric rate (or gas volume) from a gas well at any time during the well production period.     

Changes in the Probability of Heavy Precipitation: Important Indicators of Climatic Change

A simple statistical model of daily precipitation based on the gamma distribution is applied to summer (JJA in Northern Hemisphere, DJF in Southern Hemisphere) data from eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Norway, and Poland. These constitute more than 40% of the global land mass, and more than 80% of the extratropical land area. It is shown that the shape parameter of this distribution remains relatively stable, while the scale parameter is most variable spatially and temporally. This implies that the changes in mean monthly precipitation totals tend to have the most influence on the heavy precipitation rates in these countries. Observations show that in each country under consideration (except China), mean summer precipitation has increased by at least 5% in the past century. In the USA, Norway, and Australia the frequency of summer precipitation events has also increased, but there is little evidence of such increases in any of the countries considered during the past fifty years. A scenario is considered, whereby mean summer precipitation increases by 5% with no change in the number of days with precipitation or the shape parameter. When applied in the statistical model, the probability of daily precipitation exceeding 25.4 mm (1 inch) in northern countries (Canada, Norway, Russia, and Poland) or 50.8 mm (2 inches) in mid-latitude countries (the USA, Mexico, China, and Australia) increases by about 20% (nearly four times the increase in mean). The contribution of heavy rains (above these thresholds) to the total 5% increase of precipitation is disproportionally high (up to 50%), while heavy rain usually constitutes a significantly smaller fraction of the precipitation events and totals in extratropical regions (but up to 40% in the tropics, e.g., in southern Mexico). Scenarios with moderate changes in the number of days with precipitation coupled with changes in the scale parameter were also investigated and found to produce smaller increases in heavy rainfall but still support the above conclusions. These scenarios give changes in heavy rainfall which are comparable to those observed and are consistent with the greenhouse-gas-induced increases in heavy precipitation simulated by some climate models for the next century. In regions with adequate data coverage such as the eastern two-thirds of contiguous United States, Norway, eastern Australia, and the European part of the former USSR, the statistical model helps to explain the disproportionate high changes in heavy precipitation which have been observed.     

Monitoring the 2004 andesitic block-lava extrusion at Volcán de Colima,México from seismic activity and SO2 emission

The 2004 andesitic block-lava extrusion at Volcán de Colima, México was accompanied and followed by numerous seismic signals associated with rockfalls, pyroclastic flows and explosive events. We analyze temporal variations in the number of rockfalls and explosions, the seismic signal duration of rockfalls and the energy of the explosion and compare this with both the rate of magma discharge and SO₂ emission. Characteristics of seismic signals and SO₂ emission are compared with those observed during the 1998–1999 Volcán de Colima block-lava extrusion. For both eruptions, the explosive activity was low during the lava extrusion and increased after its termination. The variation in the daily number and the total duration of rockfall seismic signals gives a good reflection of the development of the lava emission process. An increase in magmatic degassing (SO₂ flux) was observed some days before the onset of lava extrusion. The degassing strongly decreased some days before the peak in the rate of the 1998–1999 lava emission but reached its peak together with the peak in the rate of the 2004 lava emission. These features of seismic activity and SO₂ emission demonstrate that they are good tools for monitoring the extrusion process.     

Quantification of the 1998–1999 explosion sequence at Popocatépetl volcano,Mexico

The sequence of large Vulcanian explosions occurring at the andesitic Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico during November 1998 to April 1999 was studied. The size of 26 largest explosions was estimated from broadband seismic records at the distance of 4 km from the crater. The sequence began with the largest explosion (E = 2.6 × 10¹² J) occurring on 25 November at 08:05, and following largest daily explosions were characterized by gradual decrease in the energy. The energy of 20 large (E ≥ 10¹¹ J) explosions was distributed as Student's t-distribution with a geometrical mean Log E = 11.81 (J).