Connecting Coronal Mass Ejections to Their Solar Active Region Sources: Combining Results from the HELCATS and FLARECAST Projects

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other solar eruptive phenomena can be physically linked by combining data from a multitude of ground-based and space-based instruments alongside models; however, this can be challenging for automated operational systems. The EU Framework Package 7 HELCATS project provides catalogues of CME observations and properties from the Heliospheric Imagers on board the two NASA/STEREO spacecraft in order to track the evolution of CMEs in the inner heliosphere. From the main HICAT catalogue of over 2,000 CME detections, an automated algorithm has been developed to connect the CMEs observed by STEREO to any corresponding solar flares and active-region (AR) sources on the solar surface. CME kinematic properties, such as speed and angular width, are compared with AR magnetic field properties, such as magnetic flux, area, and neutral line characteristics. The resulting LOWCAT catalogue is also compared to the extensive AR property database created by the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project, which provides more complex magnetic field parameters derived from vector magnetograms. Initial statistical analysis has been undertaken on the new data to provide insight into the link between flare and CME events, and characteristics of eruptive ARs. Warning thresholds determined from analysis of the evolution of these parameters is shown to be a useful output for operational space weather purposes. Parameters of particular interest for further analysis include total unsigned flux, vertical current, and current helicity. The automated method developed to create the LOWCAT catalogue may also be useful for future efforts to develop operational CME forecasting.     

Sea-ice transport of riverine particles from the Laptev Sea to Fram Strait based on clay mineral studies

The aim of this study was to identify pathways and processes of modern sediment transport from the Siberian hinterland to the Laptev Sea and further to the Arctic Ocean. Clay mineral analyses were performed on riverine suspended particulate material (SPM), surface sediments of the Laptev Sea shelf, and sea-ice sediments (SIS). Material collected during seven expeditions was included in this study. Clay mineral assemblages are used to decipher the distribution of riverine sediments on the shallow Laptev Sea shelf, the entrainment of fine particles into newly forming ice, and the transport of SIS from the Laptev Sea towards the ablation areas. A cluster analysis of our data set shows that the clay mineral assemblages of Laptev Sea shelf sediments and SIS are controlled mainly by the input of riverine SPM supplied by the Khatanga, Lena, and Yana Rivers. Whereas the western shelf clay-mineral province is characterized by enhanced smectite concentrations supplied by the Khatanga River, the eastern Laptev Sea is dominated by illite discharged through the Lena and Yana Rivers. The SIS smectite concentration serves as an indicator for sediment source areas on the circum-Arctic shelves. Subsequently, the Transpolar Drift can be distinguished into a Siberian Branch fed from the eastern Kara Sea and the western Laptev Sea, and a Polar Branch originating from the eastern Laptev Sea.     

Comparison of GMF/GPT with VMF1/ECMWF and implications for atmospheric loading

This paper compares estimates of station coordinates from global GPS solutions obtained by applying different troposphere models: the Global Mapping Function (GMF) and the Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMF1) as well as a priori hydrostatic zenith delays derived from the Global Pressure and Temperature (GPT) model and from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather model data. The station height differences between terrestrial reference frames computed with GMF/GPT and with VMF1/ECMWF are in general below 1 mm, and the horizontal differences are even smaller. The differences of annual amplitudes in the station height can also reach up to 1 mm. Modeling hydrostatic zenith delays with mean (or slowly varying empirical) pressure values instead of the true pressure values results in a partial compensation of atmospheric loading. Therefore, station height time series based on the simple GPT model have a better repeatability than those based on more realistic ECMWF troposphere a priori delays if atmospheric loading corrections are not included. On the other hand, a priori delays from numerical weather models are essential to reveal the full atmospheric loading signal.     

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as ‘field’ or ‘global’ significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ^° grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990–2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.     

Validation of components of the water cycle in the ECHAM4 general circulation model based on the Newtonian relaxation technique: a case study of an intense winter cyclone

The representation of a simulated synoptic-scale weather system is compared with observations. To force the model to the observed state, the so-called Newtonian relaxation technique (nudging) is applied to relax vorticity, divergence, temperature, and the logarithm of surface pressure to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis fields. The development of an extraordinary strong cyclone along the East Coast of the USA during 12–14 March 1993 was chosen as the case study. The synoptic-scale features were well represented in the model simulation. However, systematic differences to observations of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) occurred. The model underestimated clouds in lower and middle levels of the troposphere. Low-level clouds were mainly underestimated behind the cold front of the developing cyclone, while the underestimation of mid-level clouds seems to be a more general feature. The reason for the latter is the fact that the relative humidity has to exceed a critical threshold before clouds can develop. In contrast, thin upper-level cirrus clouds in pre-frontal regions were systematically overestimated by the model. Therefore, we investigated the effects of changed physical parameterizations with two sensitivity studies. In the PCI experiment, the standard cloud scheme operated in ECHAM4 was replaced by a more sophisticated one which defines separate prognostic equations for cloud liquid water and cloud ice. The second experiment, RHCRIT, changed the profile of the critical relative humidity threshold for the development of clouds in the standard scheme. Both experiments showed positive changes in the representation of clouds during the development of the cyclone as compared to the ISCCP. PCI clearly reduced the upper-level cloud amounts by intensifying the precipitation flux in the middle troposphere. The changed condensation threshold in the RHCRIT experiment led to a sharper represented cold front and a better represented cloudiness on its rear side as compared to the PCI and the CONTROL simulations.     

Environmental conditions in northwestern Russia during MIS 5 inferred from the pollen stratigraphy in a sediment core from Lake Ladoga

Lake Ladoga hosts preglacial sediments, although the Eurasian ice sheet overrode the area during the LGM. These sediments were first discovered by a seismic survey and are investigated using a 22.75‐m‐long core. Its upper 13.30 m comprise Holocene and Lateglacial sediments separated from the lower 11.45 m of preglacial sediments by a hiatus. They consist of highly terrigenous lacustrine sediments, which according to OSL dating, were deposited during an early stage of the last ice age (MIS 5). The palynological data allow a first reconstruction of the Early Weichselian environmental history for northwestern Russia. Birch and alder forests with broad‐leaved taxa dominated during MIS 5d (c. 118–113 ka), suggesting a climate more favourable than in the Holocene. A high content of well‐sorted sands and poorly preserved palynomorphs indicates a shallow‐water environment at least temporarily. More fine‐grained sediments and better preserved organic remains suggest deeper water environments at the core location during MIS 5c (c. 113–88 ka). Pine and spruce became dominant, while broad‐leaved taxa started to disappear, especially after c. 90 ka, pointing to a gradual climate cooling. An increase in open herb‐dominated habitats at the beginning of MIS 5b (c. 88–86 ka) reflects a colder and dryer climate. However, later (c. 86–82 ka) pine and spruce again became more common. Birch and alder forests dominated in the area c. 82–80 ka (beginning of MIS 5a). Although open treeless habitats also became more common at this time, a slight increase in hazel may point to somewhat warmer climate conditions coinciding with the beginning of MIS 5a. The studied sediments also contain numerous remains of freshwater algae and cysts of marine and brackish‐water dinoflagellates and acritarchs documenting that the present lake basin was part of a brackish‐water basin during the Early Weichselian, probably as a gulf of the Pre‐Baltic Sea.     

On Mathematical Aspects of a Combined Inversion of Gravity and Normal Mode Variations by a Spline Method

This paper provides a brief overview of two linear inverse problems concerned with the determination of the Earth’s interior: inverse gravimetry and normal mode tomography. Moreover, a vector spline method is proposed for a combined solution of both problems. This method uses localised basis functions, which are based on reproducing kernels, and is related to approaches which have been successfully applied to the inverse gravimetric problem and the seismic traveltime tomography separately.