Influence of ground-motion correlation on probabilistic assessments of seismic hazard and loss: sensitivity analysis

Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground-motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this work we compared the effects of variations in the between-earthquake correlation and in the site-to-site correlation on probabilistic estimations of seismic damage and loss for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges) of a network. Taiwan Island has been chosen as a test case for this study because of relatively high seismicity and previous experience in earthquake hazard modelling. The hazard and loss estimations were performed using Monte Carlo approach on the basis of stochastic catalogues and random ground-motion fields. We showed that the influence of correlation on parameters of seismic hazard, characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage depend, on one hand, on level of hazard and probability level of interest (return period) and, on the other hand, the relative influence of each type of correlation is not equal.     

Structural evolution of hemimorphite at high pressure up to 4.2 GPa

The high-pressure structural evolution of hemimorphite, Zn₄Si₂O₇(OH)₂·H₂O, a = 8.3881(13), b = 10.7179(11), c = 5.1311(9) Å, V = 461.30(12) Å³, space group Imm2, Z = 2, was studied by single-crystal X-ray diffraction with a diamond anvil cell under hydrostatic conditions up to 4.2 GPa. In the pressure range of 0.0001–2.44 GPa, the unit-cell parameters change almost linearly. The phase transition (probably of the second order) with symmetry reduction from Imm2 (hemimorphite-I) to Pnn2 (hemimorphite-II) was found near 2.5 GPa. The structure compressibility increases somewhat above the phase transition. Namely, the initial unit-cell volume decreases by 3.6% at 2.44 GPa and by 7.2% at 4.20 GPa. The hemimorphite framework can be described as built up of secondary building units (SBU) Zn₄Si₂O₇(OH)₂. These blocks are combined to form the rods arranged along the c-axis; these rods are multiplied by basic and I-translations of orthorhombic unit cell. The symmetry reduction is caused by the rotation of the rods along their axis. In hemimorphite-I, the compression affects mainly the SBU dimensions, whereas a rectangular section of the channels having mm2 symmetry remains practically unchanged. An appreciable decrease in this section in hemimorphite-II is determined by its oblique distortion with the loss of m planes. It results from opposite rotation of adjacent SBU, which also leads into the loss of I-translation. In hemimorphite-I, the coordination of H₂O molecules is fourfold planar; the hydrogen-bonded hydroxyls and H₂O molecules form infinite ribbons along the c-axis. In hemimorphite-II, an additional short H₂O–O contact appears as a result of asymmetric deformation of the channels. The appearance of this new contact provides the possibility for re-orientation of hydrogen bonds. The planar coordination of H₂O molecules changes to tetrahedral and the ribbons are transformed to islands (OH)₂–H₂O.     

Population biology of Ischyrocerus commensalis,a crab‐associated amphipod,in the Southern Barents Sea: a multi‐annual summer study

Population biology of the amphipod Ischyrocerus commensalis Chevreux, 1900, a facultative commensal of the red king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus (Tilesius, 1815), is here described on samples collected during summers 2005–2009 in Dalnezelenetskaya Bay (Southern Barents Sea, Russia). The studied features included infestation indices, size composition, morphometric, and reproductive parameters of the summer generation. During the studied period, prevalence and mean number of I. commensalis per host were 34.4% and 54.4 ± 3.3 individuals, respectively. The majority of amphipods were found on the host mouth parts, limbs, and gills. The amphipod sex‐ratio was significantly biased towards females (F:M = 1.36:1). The size frequency distributions observed in July and August were similar but in July the proportion of the smallest amphipods (<2.1 mm body length) was two times higher than that in August. All the amphipods with body length >5.1 mm were males or females. Length–weight relationships in female and male amphipods differed significantly, suggesting that females were heavier than the same‐sized males. The females carrying eggs in their brood pouches were the most abundant groups (54.8% in July 2009 and 51.6% in August 2005–2008). The minimal body length of a female which had released juveniles was 7.0 mm in July and 6.2 mm in August. The size at 50% maturity of I. commensalis females was estimated to be 6.58 mm. The number of eggs laid is positively linearly correlated with the size of a female. The proportion of the females with eggs in the latest developmental stage in July was 10 times higher than in August. The differences of biological features in symbiotic amphipods between the July and August may be explained by more intensive reproduction effort in the earlier month.     

The influence of future climate change on wind energy potential in the Republic of Serbia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this paper, we analyzed the influence of future climate change on wind energy potential in the Republic of Serbia. We used climate projections from two...     

Linear methods for the statistical transformation of daily precipitation sums from regional climate models

This paper presents two new methods for the linear transformation of climate model precipitation data. For verification of the developed methods, daily precipitation sums from the REMO climate model were transformed to observed data from the meteorological stations in the Malse River basin in the Czech Republic. Both methods are based on an analysis of the gamma distribution. The comparison between the observed and transformed data indicates their suitable applicability. The precipitation amounts of transformed data comply with an equivalent probability distribution as the observed data, a distribution of dry days in time drifts towards realistic values. In addition, the efficiency of the formerly published method for nonlinear transformation and newly introduced linear methods is compared.     

Small observatories for the UV

We describe concepts for small space telescopes that are able to provide significant UV science and can be realized with small (but realistic) budgets. The concepts are based on nano-satellites carrying small optics, with no redundancy, without producing intermediate models prior to flight model, and using COTS (custom off-the-shelf) components. We describe a few concepts of deployable optics that could provide large collecting areas and high angular resolution while packaged in the small volume of a nano-satellite. We point out areas where technological development is still required.     

Flat-footed Females and Missing Males: A New Genus and Species of Pleciofungivoridae (Diptera: Bibionomorpha) Represents the First Record of the Family from Mid-Cretaceous Kachin Amber

A new genus and species, Cretopleciofungivora simpsoni gen. et sp. nov., from the extinct family Pleciofungivoridae (Diptera: Bibionomorpha), is discovered in mid-Cretaceous Kachin amber. Previously, this family was known only from imprints in sedimentary rocks of the Jurassic and the Lower Cretaceous. Discovery of a representative of Pleciofungivoridae in Kachin amber confirms the presence of the family in the Upper Cretaceous. The new species has a unique structure of fore tarsus, with lobed and extended tarsal segments II to IV, a feature hitherto known only in a few species of extant Sciaroidea. Although not particularly rare, the new species is currently known only from female specimens. Possible reasons for this phenomenon, very unusual in Sciaroidea, are briefly discussed, including parthenogenesis as a potentially plausible hypothesis.     

Fluid Borders: Rethinking Historical Geography and Fixed Map Boundaries in Contested Regions

This article introduces a quantitative methodology for analyzing contested map borders. The article applies the new analytical technique to a data set of thirty maps showing Bulgaria in ca. 800 CE, a disputed state and period in medieval historiography with relevance to modern national politics and territorial claims. Based on the data set, we generate a series of new maps that make explicit the fluid medieval boundaries and general disagreement among geographers and historiographers. Our analysis begins with a simple point-in-polygon procedure to create a majority map that depicts the points included within the borders of the Bulgarian polity in sixteen or more of the maps (>50 percent). The majority map is then combined with percentage maps, confidence interval map boundaries, and cluster maps. The confidence interval maps are created via a spatial bootstrapping procedure and measure the uncertainty in the majority map. The cluster maps are developed via a radial basis function and provide insight into the potential affectivity based on the cartographers' countries of origin. The final map reflects the general modern consensus of the borders of the Bulgarian polity around 800 CE. Besides its quantitative contribution to medieval and modern cartographic, historiographical, and political debates, this article has developed a widely applicable methodology for synthesizing map borders and territories in cases of cartographic disagreement.     

Vertical structure of recent arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products

Spatiotemporal patterns of recent (1979–2008) air temperature trends are evaluated using three reanalysis datasets and radiosonde data. Our analysis demonstrates large discrepancies between the reanalysis datasets, possibly due to differences in the data assimilation procedures as well as sparseness and inhomogeneity of high-latitude observations. We test the robustness of arctic tropospheric warming based on the ERA-40 dataset. ERA-40 Arctic atmosphere temperatures tend to be closer to the observed ones in terms of root mean square error compared to other reanalysis products used in the article. However, changes in the ERA-40 data assimilation procedure produce unphysical jumps in atmospheric temperatures, which may be the likely reason for the elevated tropospheric warming trend in 1979–2002. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data show that the near-surface upward temperature trend over the same period is greater than the tropospheric trend, which is consistent with direct radiosonde observations and inconsistent with ERA-40 results. A change of sign in the winter temperature trend from negative to positive in the late 1980s is documented in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere with a maximum over the Canadian Arctic, based on radiosonde data. This change from cooling to warming tendency is associated with weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and shift of its center toward the Siberian coast and possibly can be explained by the changes in the dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation. This temporal pattern is consistent with multi-decadal variations of key arctic climate parameters like, for example, surface air temperature and oceanic freshwater content. Elucidating the mechanisms behind these changes will be critical to understanding the complex nature of high-latitude variability and its impact on global climate change.