Eta model forecasts of tropical cyclones from Australian Monsoon Experiment: Dynamical adjustment of initial conditions

Summary The University of Belgrade/National Meteorological Centre, Washington (UB/NMC) limited area Eta Model predicted the development, structure, associated precipitation and tracks of the Australian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) (10 January through 15 February 1987) tropical cyclonesConnie, Irma, Damien andJason. The initial positions and intensities of the tropical cyclone vortices from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, which are used as initial data, do not quite agree with the observations. These disagreements produce additional erros in predicting the tropical cyclone tracks.To improve the initial position of the vortex, the flow is split into the small and the large scale motions, and during the first two hours of the integration, the small-scale part is forced in small steps towards its observed position. The adjustment is performaed with the reduced model dynamics (adjustment processes only) and no physics.With the adjustment during the first two hours of the integration, the model successfully adjusts to the new position of the initial vortex. After the completion of the adjustment stage, the model runs normally, i.e., without any modification. The tracks of the 48-h forecasts with the adjusted initial vortices are parallel to the tracks obtained in the control forecasts without the adjustment. However, e.g., the mean absolute error of the positions during 48-h forecast of the tropical cycloneConnie was reduced from 174 km in the control case to 129 km in the case with adjustment of the position.The latent heat, the thermal energy, the kinetic energy and the total energy of the extracted small scale vortices are calculated every three hours of the integration time. These small-scale energies obtained in the 48-h control forecast are compared to those of the rund with the initial vortex adjustment to monitor the spin up of the model.With 7 Figures     

Diamondiferous eclogites from Yakutia,Siberia: evidence for a diversity of protoliths

Major-element and REE compositions of 14 diamondiferous eclogites from the Udachnaya kimberlite in Yakutia, Siberia have been determined by electron microprobe and secondary ion mass spectrometer (SIMS). Based on previous clinopyroxene classification schemes (e.g., Taylor and Neal 1989), all of these eclogite xenoliths belong to Group B/C, although some of the garnet compositions and mineral REE abundances are inconsistent with the indicated groups. This demonstrates the inadequacy of the classification scheme based on African eclogites for application to Siberian samples. Because of the coarse grain size of the Udachnaya nodules, meaningful modal abundances could not be obtained. However, reconstructed REE compositions using various garnet: clinopyroxene ratios demonstrate relative insensitivity to changes in mode for common eclogitic assemblages. Many of these reconstructed REE compositions show LREE depletions. Some depletions are consistent with an origin (either directly or through partial melting) as normal or Type-I ocean floor basalt. Others, however, require material of eclogitic or pyroxenitic affinities to undergo partial melting; this facilitates the depletion of LREE while leaving the HREE at nearly original levels. Many of the eclogites of South Africa are consistent with a protolith of anomalous or Type II ocean floor basalt. This fundamental difference between the two regions is the likely cause of the inconsistencies with the chemicallybased classification.     

An analysis of close binaries (CB) based on photometric measurements (VII)

The paper is devoted to the actual problematics in the determination of orbital and physical parameters of active CB on the basis of the interpretation of photometric observations. One solves the problem in two stages: by obtaining a synthetic light curve in the case when the parameters of the corresponding CB model (Djuraevi, 1992a) are given a priori (direct problem) and by determining the parameters of the given model for which the best fit between the synthetic light curve and the observations is achieved (inverse problem) (Djuraevi, 1992b). In this paper, the above procedure is applied to a particular case of an interpretation of CB light curves AU Ser and RV Corvi.     

An analysis of close binaries (CB) based on photometric measurements (V)

The author considers the current problematics in the determination of the orbital and physical parameters for active close binaries (CB) of W Ser type based on the interpretation of photometric observations. In the particular case one analyses the light curves of CB RX Cas in the framework of the accretion-disc model explained in the second paper of this series (Djuraevi, 1992a). The change of the light curves with that of the system's physical-activity phase is analysed and the orbital and physical parameters of the system are determined for the maximum, minimum and the transition regime of the physical activity by applying the inverse-problem method described in the third paper of the series (Djuraevi, 1992b). In the paper a graphical illustration of the solutions obtained is also given.     

Nonlinear gravidynamics: Energy-momentum tensor of collapsar field

In the bounds of a theoretical scheme treating consistently gravitational interaction as dynamical (gauge) field in flat space-time, an expression was obtained for the density of energy-momentum-tension of gravitational field in vacuum around a collapsed object. A case was studied of an interacting static spherically-symmetric field of a collapsar in vacuum with taking into account of input of all the possible components (spin states of virtual gravitons) into the energy for the symmetric tensor of second rank _ik . The radius of the sphere filled by matter for the collapsar of massM may achieve values up toGM/c ².     

Circumstellar dust and variability of carbon stars

A sample of 35 variable carbon stars has been considered. The stellar temperatures, radii, absolute luminosities, masses, and mass loss rates have been estimated. Then the spherical circumstellar dust shells around the analysed stars are discussed and the differences in the infrared properties between semi-regular, irregular, and long-period variables are indicated.     

Numerical case study of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis over East Asia

Summary Climatological studies show that the Altai-Sayan lee side is one of the major cyclogenesis areas in the Northern Hemisphere. In case of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis, the surface cyclone is generated when a primary cyclone is swept north of the mountains. In the mid-troposphere, a trough develops and finally turns into a cutoff low within 48 h. The main synoptic features are similar to those of Alpine cyclogenesis. Numerical simulations are performed to assess the effect of different representation of orography on the Altai-Sayan cyclogenesis. Two experiments are performed, a step-mountain (ETA) and an envelope orography (SGM) experiment. The ETA experiment produced the cyclogenesis in a way similar to that in the analysis both at the surface and at mid-troposphere. The SGM experiment failed in the simulation of the upper cutoff low. The difference in predicted pressure between the ETA and the SGM experiment shows a dipolar structure suggesting that the blocking effect of the mountains is essential in the development of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures     

Interglacial History of a Palaeo-lake and Regional Environment: A Multi-proxy Study of a Permafrost Deposit from Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island, Arctic Siberia

Chironomid, pollen, and rhizopod records from a permafrost sequence at Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) document the development of a thermokarst palaeo-lake and environmental conditions in the region during the last Interglacial (MIS 5e). Open Poaceae and Artemisia associations dominated vegetation at the beginning of the interglacial period. Rare shrub thickets (Salix, Betula nana, Alnus fruticosa) grew in more protected and wetter places as well. Saalian ice wedges started to melt during this time, resulting in the formation of an initial thermokarst water body. The high percentage of semi-aquatic chironomids suggests that a peatland-pool initially existed at the site. A distinct decrease in semi-aquatic chironomid taxa and an increase in lacustrine ones point to a gradual pooling of water in the basin, which could in turn induce thermokarst and create a permanent pond during the subsequent period. The highest relative abundance of Chironomus and Procladius reflects unfrozen water remaining under the ice throughout the ice-covered period during the later stage of palaeo-lake development. The chironomid record points to three successive stages during the history of the lake: (1) a peatland pool; (2) a pond (i.e., shallower than the maximum ice-cover thickness); and (3) a shallow lake (i.e., deeper than the maximum ice-cover thickness). The trend of palaeo-lake development indicates that intensive thermokarst processes occurred in the region during the last Interglacial. Shrub tundra communities with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana dominated the vegetation during the interglacial optimum. The climate was moister and warmer than present. The results of this study suggest that quantitative chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from Arctic thermokarst ponds/lakes may be problematic due to other key environmental factors, such as prolonged periods of winter anoxia and local hydrological/geomorphological processes, controlling the chironomid assemblages.     

Internal deformation of Sikhote Alin volcanic belt, far eastern Russia: Paleocene paleomagnetic results

We present paleomagnetic results of Paleocene welded tuffs of the 53–50 Ma Bogopol Group from the northern region (46°N, 137°E) of the Sikhote Alin volcanic belt. Characteristic paleomagnetic directions with high unblocking temperature components above 560 °C were isolated from all the sites. A tilt-corrected mean paleomagnetic direction from the northern region is D=345.8°, I=49.9°, α₉₅=14.6° (N=9). The reliability of the magnetization is ascertained through the presence of normal and reversed polarities. The mean paleomagnetic direction from the northern region of the Sikhote Alin volcanic belt reflects a counterclockwise rotation of 29° from the Paleocene mean paleomagnetic direction expected from its southern region. The counterclockwise rotation of 25° is suggested from the paleomagnetic data of the Kisin Group that underlies the Bogopol Group. These results establish that internal tectonic deformation occurred within the Sikhote Alin volcanic belt over the past 50 Ma. The northern region from 44.6° to 46.0°N in the Sikhote Alin volcanic belt was subjected to counterclockwise rotational motion through 29±17° with respect to the southern region. The tectonic rotation of the northern region is ascribable to relative motion between the Zhuravlevka terrane and the Olginsk–Taukhinsk terranes that compose the basements of the Sikhote Alin volcanic belt.     

P‐wave stacking‐velocity tomography for VTI media

A major complication caused by anisotropy in velocity analysis and imaging is the uncertainty in estimating the vertical velocity and depth scale of the model from surface data. For laterally homogeneous VTI (transversely isotropic with a vertical symmetry axis) media above the target reflector, P‐wave moveout has to be combined with other information (e.g. borehole data or converted waves) to build velocity models for depth imaging. The presence of lateral heterogeneity in the overburden creates the dependence of P‐wave reflection data on all three relevant parameters (the vertical velocity V_P0 and the Thomsen coefficients ε and δ) and, therefore, may help to determine the depth scale of the velocity field. Here, we propose a tomographic algorithm designed to invert NMO ellipses (obtained from azimuthally varying stacking velocities) and zero‐offset traveltimes of P‐waves for the parameters of homogeneous VTI layers separated by either plane dipping or curved interfaces. For plane non‐intersecting layer boundaries, the interval parameters cannot be recovered from P‐wave moveout in a unique way. Nonetheless, if the reflectors have sufficiently different azimuths, a priori knowledge of any single interval parameter makes it possible to reconstruct the whole model in depth. For example, the parameter estimation becomes unique if the subsurface layer is known to be isotropic. In the case of 2D inversion on the dip line of co‐orientated reflectors, it is necessary to specify one parameter (e.g. the vertical velocity) per layer. Despite the higher complexity of models with curved interfaces, the increased angle coverage of reflected rays helps to resolve the trade‐offs between the medium parameters. Singular value decomposition (SVD) shows that in the presence of sufficient interface curvature all parameters needed for anisotropic depth processing can be obtained solely from conventional‐spread P‐wave moveout. By performing tests on noise‐contaminated data we demonstrate that the tomographic inversion procedure reconstructs both the interfaces and the VTI parameters with high accuracy. Both SVD analysis and moveout inversion are implemented using an efficient modelling technique based on the theory of NMO‐velocity surfaces generalized for wave propagation through curved interfaces.