Prediction of response spectra via real-time earthquake measurements

The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However, some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near- and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications.In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large earthquake causative fault systems are located.The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the estimates performed at each seismic station.Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network.Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS.     

Spatial analysis of thickness variability applied to an Early Jurassic carbonate platform in the central Southern Alps (Italy): a tool to unravel syn‐sedimentary faulting

Early Jurassic syn‐sedimentary extensional tectonics in the central Southern Alps controlled patterns of deposition within the Calcari Grigi carbonate platform. We used variogram maps to gather model‐independent information on the spatial distribution of thicknesses of selected platform units and investigated whether major syn‐sedimentary faults outlined subsiding domains during platform growth. Thicknesses display a spatial organization that suggests that large fault belts, often coincident with exposed Jurassic extensional structures, transected large parts of the platform. The network of four fault systems (trending NNW–SSE and NE–SW) displays orthorhombic symmetry, suggesting non‐Andersonian faulting and a true triaxial strain field with N100°E maximum extension or transfer shear zones connecting major NNW–SSE‐trending extensional faults. In both cases, inherited structures of Permian to Triassic age may have played a primary role in Jurassic faulting. If confirmed throughout the South‐Alpine domain, this arrangement could shed new light on Early Jurassic rifting mechanisms in the Southern Alps.     

Influence of connection typology on seismic response of MR‐Frames with and without ‘set‐backs’

The work presented is aimed at the investigation of the influence of beam‐to‐column connections on the seismic response of MR‐Frames, with and without ‘set‐backs’, designed according to the Theory of Plastic Mechanism Control. The investigated connection typologies are four partial strength connections whose structural details have been designed to obtain the same flexural resistance. The first three joints are designed by means of hierarchy criteria based on the component approach and are characterized by different location of the weakest joint component, leading to different values of joint rotational stiffness and plastic rotation supply and affecting the shape of the hysteresis loops governing the dissipative capacity. The last typology is a beam‐to‐column connection equipped with friction pads devoted to the dissipation of the earthquake input energy, thus preventing the connection damage. An appropriate modelling is needed to accurately represent both strength and deformation characteristics, especially with reference to partial‐strength connections where the dissipation of the earthquake input energy occurs. To this aim, beam‐to‐column joints are modelled by means of rotational inelastic springs located at the ends of the beams whose moment‐rotation curve is characterized by a cyclic behaviour which accounts for stiffness and strength degradation and pinching phenomena. The parameters characterizing the cyclic hysteretic behaviour have been calibrated on the base of experimental results aiming to the best fitting. Successively, the prediction of the structural response of MR‐Frames, both regular frames and frames with set‐backs, equipped with such connections has been carried out by means of both push‐over and Incremental Dynamic Analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Net sediment transport in tidal basins: quantifying the tidal barotropic mechanisms in a unified framework

Net sediment transport in tidal basins is a subtle imbalance between large fluxes produced by the flood/ebb alternation. The imbalance arises from several mechanisms of suspended transport. Lag effects and tidal asymmetries are regarded as dominant, but defined in different frames of reference (Lagrangian and Eulerian, respectively). A quantitative ranking of their effectiveness is therefore missing. Furthermore, although wind waves are recognized as crucial for tidal flats’ morphodynamics, a systematic analysis of the interaction with tidal mechanisms has not been carried out so far. We review the tide-induced barotropic mechanisms and discuss the shortcomings of their current classification for numerical process-based models. Hence, we conceive a unified Eulerian framework accounting for wave-induced resuspension. A new methodology is proposed to decompose the sediment fluxes accordingly, which is applicable without needing (semi-) analytical approximations. The approach is tested with a one-dimensional model of the Vlie basin, Wadden Sea (The Netherlands). Results show that lag-driven transport is dominant for the finer fractions (silt and mud). In absence of waves, net sediment fluxes are landward and spatial (advective) lag effects are dominant. In presence of waves, sediment can be exported from the tidal flats and temporal (local) lag effects are dominant. Conversely, sand transport is dominated by the asymmetry of peak ebb/flood velocities. We show that the direction of lag-driven transport can be estimated by the gradient of hydrodynamic energy. In agreement with previous studies, our results support the conceptualization of tidal flats’ equilibrium as a simplified balance between tidal mechanisms and wave resuspension.     

Optical characterization of laser ablated silicates

We perform an optical characterization of UV laser ablated silicates (olivine, pyroxene), starting from their reflectance spectra in the 0.3-2.5 μm spectral range. The goal is to provide useful tools to model space weathering effects on surfaces of asteroids and TNOs (trans-neptunian objects). We determine that the reddening and darkening spectral trend is compatible with the Hapke's space weathering model, using the optical constants of metallic iron in a silicate matrix. This result is supported by new magnetic susceptibility measurements on laser ablated orthopyroxene. We also investigate the potential contribution of formation of amorphous silicates in the process. Applying our results to silicate-rich surfaces in the Solar System, we investigate the possibility of a weathered olivine component on the surface of Centaur 5145 Pholus. Inclusion of this component slightly decreases the amount of complex organics and water ice from those previously estimated. Thus, the current Pholus spectrum is consistent with the presence of either unweathered or weathered olivine, or potentially both materials.     

Comparing Beerkan infiltration tests with rainfall simulation experiments for hydraulic characterization of a sandy‐loam soil

Saturated soil hydraulic conductivity, K _s , data collected by ponding infiltrometer methods and usual experimental procedures could be unusable for interpreting field hydrological processes and particularly rainfall infiltration. The K _s values determined by an infiltrometer experiment carried out by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface could however be more appropriate to explain surface runoff generation phenomena during intense rainfall events. In this study, a link between rainfall simulation and ponding infiltrometer experiments was established for a sandy‐loam soil. The height of water pouring for the infiltrometer run was chosen, establishing a similarity between the gravitational potential energy of the applied water, E _p , and the rainfall kinetic energy, E _k . To test the soundness of this procedure, the soil was sampled with the Beerkan estimation of soil transfer parameters procedure of soil hydraulic characterization and two heights of water pouring (0.03 m, i.e., usual procedure, and 0.34 m, yielding E _p  = E _k ). Then, a comparison between experimental steady‐state infiltration rates, i _sR , measured with rainfall simulation experiments determining runoff production and K _s values for the two water pouring heights was carried out in order to discriminate between theoretically possible (i _sR  ≥ K _s ) and impossible (i _sR  < K _s ) situations. Physically possible K _s values were only obtained by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface, because i _sR was equal to 20.0 mm h^?1 and K _s values were 146.2–163.9 and 15.2–18.7 mm h^?1 for a height of water pouring of 0.03 and 0.34 m, respectively. This result suggested the consistency between Beerkan runs with a high height of water pouring and rainfall simulator experiments. Soil compaction and mechanical aggregate breakdown were the most plausible physical mechanisms determining reduction of K _s with height. This study demonstrated that the height from which water is poured onto the soil surface is a key parameter in infiltrometer experiments and can be adapted to mimic the effect of high intensity rain on soil hydraulic properties.     

Seismology of the solar atmosphere

We describe a new instrument for seismically probing the properties of the Sun's lower atmosphere, and present some first results from an observational campaign carried out at the geographic South Pole during the austral summer of 2002/2003. A preliminary analysis of the data (simultaneous, high-cadence observations of the velocity signals from the photosphere and low chromosphere) shows that the well-known suppression of acoustic power in regions of strong magnetic field, and enhancement of high-frequency power around active regions (acoustic halos), are both consistent with a spreading out of the magnetic field lines with increasing height in the atmosphere. The data have also revealed some unexpected wave behavior. First, evanescent-like waves are found at frequencies substantially above the acoustic cut-off frequency in regions of intermediate magnetic field. Second, upward- and downward-propagating waves are detected in areas of strong magnetic field such as sunspots and plage: even at frequencies below the acoustic cut-off frequency. Third, the wave behavior in regions of strong magnetic field can change over periods of a few hours from propagating to evanescent. While we have no concrete explanation for the first two results, the latter result opens up the question of whether sound waves are involved in short-term events such as flares or CME's.     

A possible rotation period for the minor planet 164 Eva

The minor planet 164 Eva passed through opposition on December 1, 1975 with a magnitude B_opp = 11.3 mag. Photoelectric observations at the Observatory of Torino, Italy, were carried out in two nights on Oct. 27/28 and Nov. 11, each with a run of about 3 hr. Two further successful photoelectric observations were carried out at the OHP, France, each with a run of about 6 hr. From all observed parts of the lightcurve a resulting synodic period of rotation of about 27.3 hr can be deduced, with a range of the total amplitude of at least Δm = 0.07 mag. With this period of 27.3 hr the minor planet 164 Eva is one more long period object, falling now between 654 Zelinda (H. J. Schober, 1975, Astron. Astrophys.44, 85–89) and 139 Juewa (J. Goguen et al., 1976, Icarus29, 137–142), at the high end in the histogram of the distribution of minor planet rotation periods.     

Standard candles from the Gaia perspective

The ESA Gaia mission will bring a new era to the domain of standard candles. Progresses in this domain will be achieved thanks to unprecedented astrometric precision, whole-sky coverage and the combination of photometric, spectrophotometric and spectroscopic measurements. The fundamental outcome of the mission will be the Gaia catalogue produced by the Gaia Data Analysis and Processing Consortium (DPAC), which will contain a variable source classification and specific properties for stars of specific variability types. We review what will be produced for Cepheids, RR Lyrae, Long Period Variable stars and eclipsing binaries.