Engineering design earthquakes from multimodal hazard disaggregation

To define reference structural actions, engineers practicing earthquake resistant design are required by codes to account for ground motion likely to threaten the site of interest and also for pertinent seismic source features. In most of the cases, while the former issue is addressed assigning a mandatory design response spectrum, the latter is left unsolved. However, in the case that the design spectrum is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, disaggregation may be helpful, allowing to identify the earthquakes having the largest contribution to the hazard for the spectral ordinates of interest. Such information may also be useful to engineers in better defining the design scenario for the structure, e.g., in record selection for nonlinear seismic structural analysis. On the other hand, disaggregation results change with the spectral ordinate and return period, and more than a single event may dominate the hazard, especially if multiple sources affect the hazard at the site. This work discusses identification of engineering design earthquakes referring, as an example, to the Italian case. The considered hazard refers to the exceedance of peak ground acceleration and 1s spectral acceleration with four return periods between 50 and 2475 year. It is discussed how, for most of the Italian sites, more than a design earthquake exists, because of the modeling of seismic sources. Furthermore, it is explained how and why these change with the limit state and the dynamic properties of the structure. Finally, it is illustrated how these concepts may be easily included in engineering practice complementing design hazard maps and effectively enhancing definition of design seismic actions with relatively small effort.     

Seismic reliability of traditional and innovative concentrically braced frames

Structural engineering problems are always affected by many sources of uncertainty, such as aleatory of material properties, applied loads and earthquake intensity, therefore, seismic assessment of structures should be based on probabilistic methods. Since PBSD (Performance‐based Seismic Design) philosophy was formulated, many researches have been conducted in this field in order to develop simple and accurate procedures for evaluating structural reliability. An important contribution has been provided by Jalayer and Cornell, who have developed a closed‐form expression to evaluate the mean annual frequency of exceeding a defined limit state. In this paper, by assuming the record‐to‐record variability as the only source of uncertainty, the seismic reliability of concentrically braced frames designed according to traditional and innovative methodologies is investigated, and a comparison between their performances is presented. In particular, two design methodologies have been applied: Eurocode 8 provisions and a new design methodology based on a rigorous application of ‘capacity design’ criteria. The innovative reduced section solution strategy, based on the reduction of cross sections at bracing member ends, has also been analysed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

Processes controlling very low sedimentation rates on the continental slope of the Gonone-Orosei canyon system,NE Sardinia—terrestrial and oceanic significance

The narrow shelf and upper slope immediately above the Gonone canyon head off NE Sardinia represent areas of very low sedimentation rates. Along the sides of the canyon head (1,600 m water depth), the sediment deposits are homogeneous but show alternating light-grey intervals rich in carbonate and dark-grey ones rich in organic matter, possibly related to distal turbidite processes. Deposits older than 50,000 years are already encountered at core depths of 2.50 m, the sedimentation rates varying from 6–21 cm/10³ years in the lower parts of two cores and from 1.5–3 cm/10³ years in the upper parts. At about 35,000 years BP, both cores show a simultaneous drop in sedimentation rate by a factor of 3, probably in response to local mechanisms of channel avulsion. Lithological, mineralogical and geochemical properties reveal the environmental factors which are responsible for the extremely slow sediment accumulation. The southernmost sector of the coast, and partly also of the shelf, consists of Jurassic limestones which supply only small amounts of fine-grained material transported in suspension. During the last sea-level highstand, the accumulation of the Cedrino River pro-delta remained restricted to the coast, the low siliciclastic sediment yields resulting in poor shelf sediment trapping. The present morphology of the canyon head prevented the occurrence of gravity processes in the deeper part of the canyon system, including the coring sites. Accordingly, deposition was mainly fed by hemipelagic material of planktonic origin, together with only moderate terrigenous inputs. On a wider late Pleistocene timescale, seismic data indicate the occurrence of a coarse-grained, layered turbidite facies, implying a very different architecture of the canyon drainage system probably prior to 60,000 years BP.     

Estimation of mean spectral directions in random seas

A method for obtaining the directional spectrum, on assuming that the frequencies of the elementary waves are all different from one another, is re-proposed in a form suitable for applications to sea states near a coast. The method is applied to an interval of 10 h during which the sea state remained basically steady state off the beach at Reggio Calabria (east coast of the Straits of Messina). It is shown that the directional spectrum converges as the length of the time series data grows. A numerical simulation of a 10 h sea state confirms that the directional spectrum converges as the length of the time series grows, and the convergence is onto the known directional spectrum used to make the numerical simulation. Through the numerical simulation, it is proved that the method, generally, is suitable for applications even with short time series of wind waves (duration of about 100T_p). Finally, it is shown that the method is not necessarily inadequate even with short records of multimodal sea states with different modal directions, modal amplitude ratios and intermodal distances.     

Evolution and architecture of a West Mediterranean Upper Pleistocene to Holocene coastal apron‐fan system

The Quaternary deposits of tectonically stable areas are a powerful tool to investigate high‐frequency climate variations (<10 ka) and to distinguish allogenic and autogenic factors controlling deposition. Therefore, an Upper Pleistocene–Holocene coastal apron‐fan system in north–western Sardinia (Porto Palmas, Italy) was studied to investigate the relations between climate changes, sea‐level fluctuations and sediment source‐supply that controlled its development. The sedimentary sequence records the strong influence of local (wet/dry) and worldwide (sea‐level) environmental variations in the sedimentation and preservation of the deposits. A multi‐disciplinary approach allowed subdivision of the succession into four major, unconformity‐bounded stratigraphic units: U1 U2, U3 and U4. Unit U1, tentatively dated to the warm and humid Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5, consists of sandy, gravelly coastal/beach deposits developed during high sea‐level in low‐lying areas. Unit U2 consists of debris‐flow dominated fan‐deposits (ca 74 ka; MIS 4), preserved as partial fills of small valleys and coves. Unit U2 is mainly composed of reddish silty conglomerate to pebbly siltstones sourced from the Palaeozoic metamorphic inland hills (bedrock), superficially disintegrated during the preceding warm, vegetation‐rich MIS 5. The cold and semi‐arid climate strongly reduced vegetation cover along the valley flanks. Therefore, sediment gravity‐flow processes, possibly activated by rainstorms, led to deposition of debris‐flow dominated fans. Unit U3 consists of water‐flow dominated alluvial‐fan deposits (ca 47 to 23 ka; MIS 3), developed on a slightly inclined coastal plain. Unit U3 is composed of sandstone and sandy conglomerate fed from two main sediment sources: metamorphic inland bedrock and Quaternary bioclastic‐rich shelf‐derived sands. During this cold phase, sea‐level dropped sufficiently to expose bioclastic sands accumulated on the shelf. Frequent climate fluctuations favoured inland aeolian transport of sand during dry phases, followed by reworking of the aeolian bodies by flash floods during wet phases. Bedrock‐derived fragments mixed with water‐reworked, wind‐blown sands led to the development of water‐flow dominated fans. The Dansgaard–Oeschger events possibly associated with sand landward deflation and main fan formations are Dansgaard–Oeschger 13 (ca 47 ka), Dansgaard–Oeschger 8 (ca 39 ka) and Dansgaard–Oeschger 2 (ca 23 ka). No record of sedimentation during MIS 2 was observed. Finally, bioclastic‐rich aeolianites (Unit U4, ca 10 to 5 ka; MIS 1), preserved on a coastal slope, were developed during the Holocene transgression (ca 10 to 5 ka; MIS 1). The studied sequence shows strong similarities with those of other Mediterranean sites; it is, however, one of the few where the main MIS 4 and MIS 3 climatic fluctuations are registered in the sedimentary record.     

Testing a theoretical resistance law for overland flow on a stony hillslope

Overland flow, sediments, and nutrients transported in runoff are important processes involved in soil erosion and water pollution. Modelling transport of sediments and chemicals requires accurate estimates of hydraulic resistance, which is one of the key variables characterizing runoff water depth and velocity. In this paper, a new theoretical power–velocity profile, originally deduced neglecting the impact effect of rainfall, was initially modified for taking into account the effect of rainfall intensity. Then a theoretical flow resistance law was obtained by integration of the new flow velocity distribution. This flow resistance law was tested using field measurements by Nearing for the condition of overland flow under simulated rainfall. Measurements of the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor, corresponding to flow Reynolds number ranging from 48 to 194, were obtained for simulated rainfall with two different rainfall intensity values (59 and 178 mm hr⁻¹). The database, including measurements of flow velocity, water depth, cross-sectional area, wetted perimeter, and bed slope, allowed for calibration of the relationship between the velocity profile parameter Γ, the slope steepness s, and the flow Froude number F, taking also into account the influence of rainfall intensity i. Results yielded the following conclusions: (a) The proposed theoretical flow resistance equation accurately estimated the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor for overland flow under simulated rainfall, (b) the flow resistance increased with rainfall intensity for laminar overland flow, and (c) the mean flow velocity was quasi-independent of the slope gradient.     

Infrared transmission spectroscopy of carbonate samples of biotic origin relevant to Mars exobiological studies

Because it is possible that Mars experienced an ancient climate warmer and wetter than the present one, it is reasonable to suppose that simple forms of life developed there, in the underground or at the surface, as in the terrestrial primitive biosphere. In this work we have performed infrared (IR) transmission spectroscopic analyses directed to examine the reaction to heat treatments of biotic (fresh and fossil materials) and abiotic particulate samples composed of calcium carbonate (aragonite or calcite). The aim is to check if IR spectroscopy can be a useful tool for discriminating between abiotic and biotic (fossil) carbonate samples collected on the martian surface, during in situ or sample-return missions. An important result we found is that, after thermal processing, it is possible to distinguish, by means of IR spectroscopy, abiotic aragonite from aragonite of recent biological origin. In addition we have found that the spectral behaviour of all the analysed fossil samples after heat treatment is the same as that of fresh biotic material irrespective of the original structure (whether aragonite or calcite).     

Statistical properties of dissipation bursts within turbulence: Solar flares and geomagnetic activity

We investigate some statistical properties of the solar soft X-ray flux and of the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index. For both these signals, the probability density functions (PDFs) of normalized differences are shown to display wide, non-Gaussian tails. The shape of the PDFs is nearly unchanged as the timelag, used to calculate differences, varies. Moreover, the two time series are characterized by a power-law distribution for waiting times between successive bursts and by a clear departure from an hypothesis of locally Poisson statistics. A similar behavior is found in a shell model of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence.